If the Brexit Party had stood down everywhere

[BossMan]

Some Conservatives have said the party could have won a majority of 100+ had the Brexit Party not split the right of centre vote. This could well be true but I'm not so sure. Surely the Brexit Party would have taken more votes off Labour in several constituencies, especially among those former Labour voters who could not bring themselves to vote Tory.
Would anyone hazard a guess as to what the result would have been if they had the Brexit Party stood down in more Labour held marginals, and in which seats they made a crucial difference?

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

There were 37 constituencies where we were second and Farage's party got more votes than the majority. This is the difference between a majority of 80 and one of (spookily enough) 144.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 15, 2019 11:17:54 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

There were 37 constituencies where we were second and Farage's party got more votes than the majority. This is the difference between a majority of 80 and one of (spookily enough) 144.

Maybe one or two of those might have gone the other way, but my sense is that what remained of the Brexit vote in these areas, having been squeezed by the Tories, was the kind of ex-Labour votes who still couldn't bring themselves to vote Conservative. Its not apparent that these would have been won in the absence of BP candidates and its possible that some seats like Blyth Valley and NW Durham may not have been, if indeed the Brexit party took votes in those places (as seems likely) that might otherwise have gone to Labour.
What is undeniably true, is that if the Conservatives had stood down in a handful of seats and endorsed the Brexit party, they would have been able to win in places like Hull, Barnsley, Hartlepool etc, though I fully understand why they didn't do that and such a strategy might have had unpredictable effects on the vote elsewhere (possibly cost more seats of the Cheltenham and Winchester variety and so on)

[mboy]

^ Probably true.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Dec 16, 2019 10:05:53 GMT @kipper1 said:

Dec 15, 2019 11:17:54 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

There were 37 constituencies where we were second and Farage's party got more votes than the majority. This is the difference between a majority of 80 and one of (spookily enough) 144.

Do you have link to the list?

In increasing order of majority (all Labour except #18), they are:
1. Bedford (LAB maj 145; BXP 896)
2. Coventry North West (LAB maj 208; BXP 1956)
3. Alyn & Deeside (LAB maj 213; BXP 2678)
4. Dagenham & Rainham (LAB maj 293; BXP 2887)
5. Coventry South (LAB maj 401; BXP 1432)
6. Weaver Vale (LAB maj 562; BXP 1380)
7. Warwick & Leamington (LAB maj 789; BXP 807)
8. Wansbeck (LAB maj 814; BXP 3141)
9. Newport West (LAB maj 902; BXP 1727)
10. Stockton North (LAB maj 1027; BXP 3907)
11. Hemsworth (LAB maj 1180; BXP 5930)
12. Wolverhampton South East (LAB maj 1235; BXP 2094)
13. Hull East (LAB maj 1239; BXP 5764)
14. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford (LAB maj 1276; BXP 8032)
15. Chesterfield (LAB maj 1451; BXP 4771)
16. Oldham East & Saddleworth (LAB maj 1499; BXP 2980)
17. Warrington North (LAB maj 1509; BXP 2626)
18. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr (PC maj 1809; BXP 2311)
19. Newport East (LAB maj 1992; BXP 2454)
20. Wentworth & Dearne (LAB maj 2165; BXP 7019)
21. Doncaster Central (LAB maj 2278; BXP 6842)
22. Bradford South (LAB maj 2346; BXP 2819)
23. Doncaster North (LAB maj 2370; BXP 8297)
24. Halifax (LAB maj 2569; BXP 2813)
25. Hull West & Hessle (LAB maj 2856; BXP 5638)
26. Stalybridge & Hyde (LAB maj 2946; BXP 3591)
27. Sunderland Central (LAB maj 2964; BXP 5047)
28. Worsley & Eccles South (LAB maj 3101; BXP 3224)
29. Houghton & Sunderland South (LAB maj 3115; BXP 6165)
30. Rotherham (LAB maj 3121; BXP 6125)
31. Hartlepool (LAB maj 3595; BXP 10603)
32. Washington & Sunderland West (LAB maj 3723; BXP 5439)
33. Torfaen (LAB maj 3742; BXP 5742)
34. Sheffield South East (LAB maj 4289; BXP 4478)
35. Makerfield (LAB maj 4740; BXP 5817)
36. Blaydon (LAB maj 5531; BXP 5833)
37. Easington (LAB maj 6581; BXP 6744)

[No Offence Alan]

Dec 15, 2019 11:17:54 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

There were 37 constituencies where we were second and Farage's party got more votes than the majority. This is the difference between a majority of 80 and one of (spookily enough) 144.

And I suspect that in every one of those seats the number of non-voters would be much higher than the number of BXP voters.
So why didn't you try harder to get the non-voters to vote for you?

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Dec 16, 2019 11:36:36 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Dec 15, 2019 11:17:54 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

There were 37 constituencies where we were second and Farage's party got more votes than the majority. This is the difference between a majority of 80 and one of (spookily enough) 144.

And I suspect that in every one of those seats the number of non-voters would be much higher than the number of BXP voters.
So why didn't you try harder to get the non-voters to vote for you?

Next you'll be suggesting that we actually bother to put up council candidates in every ward in those seats...

[Richard Allen]

Dec 15, 2019 11:26:45 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 15, 2019 11:17:54 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

There were 37 constituencies where we were second and Farage's party got more votes than the majority. This is the difference between a majority of 80 and one of (spookily enough) 144.

Maybe one or two of those might have gone the other way, but my sense is that what remained of the Brexit vote in these areas, having been squeezed by the Tories, was the kind of ex-Labour votes who still couldn't bring themselves to vote Conservative. Its not apparent that these would have been won in the absence of BP candidates and its possible that some seats like Blyth Valley and NW Durham may not have been, if indeed the Brexit party took votes in those places (as seems likely) that might otherwise have gone to Labour.
What is undeniably true, is that if the Conservatives had stood down in a handful of seats and endorsed the Brexit party, they would have been able to win in places like Hull, Barnsley, Hartlepool etc, though I fully understand why they didn't do that and such a strategy might have had unpredictable effects on the vote elsewhere (possibly cost more seats of the Cheltenham and Winchester variety and so on)

Half a dozen Brexit Party MPs would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party as it would have allowed a rival right wing party to become fully established. A majority of 80 and the Brexit Party now irrelevant is pretty much the best that the Conservatives could have hoped for and so while some will naturally rue that this seat or that seat stayed in the Labour column it has no impact on the big picture.

[trekett]

They largely did.

Cumming's was ruthless and didn't acknowledge that, but I wonder how the voters will feel with all the added public debt ?

TBP (now Reform UK) are not going to yield next time round, there are going to be too many Labour seats to grab.

[pericles]

Some high profile Labour MPs like Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper would have lost.

[The Bishop]

Sept 2, 2021 13:15:49 GMT pericles said:

Some high profile Labour MPs like Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper would have lost.

Based on the 2019 results that would look likely, yes.

I do wonder though if BxP standing down just in Tory seats was more harmful to Labour prospects than doing so everywhere would have been.

What they did was much more easily seen as a near explicit endorsement of the Tories.

[iang]

And I think it certainly damaged us - based on the 2019 Euros, a significant part of our strategy was certainly based on the assumption that the BP would stand everywhere and split the Tory vote to our advantage in the sort of seats that favoured us. Not the only misjudgement of the 2019 election campaign

[timrollpickering]

You had a strategy?! Was it devised by someone with an ego big enough to fill Wembley Stadium?

[iang]

Sept 13, 2021 17:08:15 GMT timrollpickering said:

You had a strategy?! Was it devised by someone with an ego big enough to fill Wembley Stadium?

We had lots of strategies. Whether we had successful or realistic ones however...

[Clark]

How many seats do you think the Referendum Party cost the Tories in 1997?

[greenhert]

Sept 18, 2021 16:22:40 GMT Clark said:

How many seats do you think the Referendum Party cost the Tories in 1997?

At most 20. It was also argued by Butler & Kavanagh that by redirecting "anyone but Conservative" votes they may have indirectly helped the Conservatives retain some seats they narrowly held in 1997, such as Bury St Edmunds, South Dorset, and Totnes.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Sept 18, 2021 16:22:40 GMT Clark said:

How many seats do you think the Referendum Party cost the Tories in 1997?

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/10-myths-about-1997-election

see point 3(and the book if you can view a copy)

[Clark]

Sept 22, 2021 20:29:20 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Sept 18, 2021 16:22:40 GMT Clark said:

How many seats do you think the Referendum Party cost the Tories in 1997?

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/10-myths-about-1997-election

see point 3(and the book if you can view a copy)

Interesting article - especially most pundits predicted a lesser Labour win than what actually happened.

It was the same in 2001 - indeed, I think it was Michael Crick who was the most accurate that year
Peter Hitchens predicted a CON majority of 12 in 2001 lol