|
|
Post by swanarcadian on Oct 30, 2019 1:13:58 GMT
Bury South
|
|
|
|
Post by bsjmcr on Oct 31, 2019 0:00:51 GMT
Well, after much deliberating Ivan Lewis will be standing here again. Perhaps he was waiting for the Labour candidate to be confirmed, as his announcement came at about the same time?
(Dr) Lucy Burke, lecturer at MMU is the new Labour candidate ('new' in very small letters there, as she appears to be of the union/Corbyn side of the party), perhaps Lewis feels he has a better chance against her than say an established/moderate local councillor, and may not have stood at all if it was one he knew well over the years. But Burke is local herself, unlike the Tory candidate.
The Lib Dems have interestingly chosen their second Manchester councillor Richard Kilpatrick, I would have thought he'd be selected in a Manchester (or otherwise heavily Remain) seat where he'd have a better chance as he must have been a good campaigner to win back in Didsbury.
It will be interesting the effect what Lewis' re-standing will have. The simple answer is splitting the labour vote to let the Tories in but it could be more complex than that. He could also split any 'anti-labour' vote allowing labour to hold. Then there's also a Brexit party candidate too. I'm certain he will hold his deposit, after all he has been around for a while and while there were 'allegations', they are simply allegations unlike Danczuk's case so I don't think he'll suffer an embarrassing defeat like him. I hope Labour don't make it a personal campaign either or try to dwell on such issues, that would be a mistake I think.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 31, 2019 0:05:24 GMT
I am aware of Lucy Burke. Very intelligent woman. Although having dealt with MMU, I wouldn't trust many of their academics to run a bath. Riddled with awful, duplicitous, and occasionally outright foul people.
|
|
|
|
Post by conservativeestimate on Oct 31, 2019 0:08:59 GMT
Bury Labour? I like the sound of that
|
|
|
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 2, 2019 16:00:16 GMT
Can we have a 3 way Lab Hold/Con Gain/Ind Gain poll here, please?
|
|
|
|
Post by greenrobinhood on Nov 2, 2019 16:51:05 GMT
Can we have a 3 way Lab Hold/Con Gain/Ind Gain poll here, please? Ivan Lewis does not stand a realistic chance of winning, although he could split the Labour vote enough for a Conservative gain of Bury South to be possible. |
|
Merseymike
Labour
"Commie and Traitor"
Posts: 23,332
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 3, 2019 17:17:15 GMT
Can we have a 3 way Lab Hold/Con Gain/Ind Gain poll here, please? Ivan Lewis does not stand a realistic chance of winning, although he could split the Labour vote enough for a Conservative gain of Bury South to be possible. He would be looking to gain votes from Tory voters in Prestwich. |
|
|
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 3, 2019 17:55:16 GMT
Ivan Lewis does not stand a realistic chance of winning, although he could split the Labour vote enough for a Conservative gain of Bury South to be possible. He would be looking to gain votes from Tory voters in Prestwich. ... while simultaneously gaining disaffected Labour voters in Radcliffe and centrist Labour voters all over, which is why his standing would make this seat so unpredictable! |
|
|
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 6, 2019 21:28:59 GMT
So a new secondary school in Radcliffe is closer in the pipeline. It will be interesting who takes the credit for this, Mr.Lewis first (picture of him with a minister on the Bury Times website), the Labour Council or the Tory candidate by saying their government funded it (and seeing that it'll be an academy). If he makes it clear he fought for it he must do well in Radcliffe, on top of the independent successes there.
I've had a brief look at 'recent' examples of former MPs standing as independents, one of those who did relatively well is Bob Spink in 'Castle Point' (me neither) who got 12,000 votes in 2010 on a 'save our green belt' banner (which Lewis ought to do). In the same election, Andrew Pelling, also former Tory just got over 3,000 votes and 6.5% but he only had one term incumbency. So given 22 years' incumbency surely his performance would be closer to Spink's than Pelling (and Danczuk/ Mike Hancock - former LD in Portsmouth, 700 votes!) . But as I'm not at home the only campaigning I can see so far is FB/Twitter only, not ideal for the (IMO) older than average electorate of Prestwich/Whitefield.
I think of all the former MPs standing as Indys so far Grieve seems to be having the best campaign but haven't looked into all of them in great detail. I've seen leaflets and a refreshingly positive response to his social media on his re-standing.
|
|
|
|
Post by lancsobserver on Nov 6, 2019 21:42:29 GMT
So a new secondary school in Radcliffe is closer in the pipeline. It will be interesting who takes the credit for this, Mr.Lewis first (picture of him with a minister on the Bury Times website), the Labour Council or the Tory candidate by saying their government funded it (and seeing that it'll be an academy). If he makes it clear he fought for it he must do well in Radcliffe, on top of the independent successes there. I've had a brief look at 'recent' examples of former MPs standing as independents, one of those who did relatively well is Bob Spink in 'Castle Point' (me neither) who got 12,000 votes in 2010 on a 'save our green belt' banner (which Lewis ought to do). In the same election, Andrew Pelling, also former Tory just got over 3,000 votes and 6.5% but he only had one term incumbency. So given 22 years' incumbency surely his performance would be closer to Spink's than Pelling (and Danczuk/ Mike Hancock - former LD in Portsmouth, 700 votes!) . But as I'm not at home the only campaigning I can see so far is FB/Twitter only, not ideal for the (IMO) older than average electorate of Prestwich/Whitefield. I think of all the former MPs standing as Indys so far Grieve seems to be having the best campaign but haven't looked into all of them in great detail. I've seen leaflets and a refreshingly positive response to his social media on his re-standing. Tbf Frank Field has the best of the Indys thus far . I understand his launch and coverage resulted in both supporters and donations. I doubt he'll win but he should perform respectably, garnering the ex Lab Ind Cllrs' support in Oxton as well as some Tory support given his views and it's an unwinnable for them. Add to that casework votes and I'd estimate he should receive anything from 5% to 35%.
The East Devon Ind PPC was the best Ind in the betting, but with Sir Hugo stepping down her chances have diminished. Lady Sylvia is also standing down.
The view appears to be that most MPs who are standing as Inds or elsewhere (Berger + 6 so far) are doing so simply due to the severance pay a defeated Member receives.
|
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 6, 2019 21:57:06 GMT
So a new secondary school in Radcliffe is closer in the pipeline. It will be interesting who takes the credit for this, Mr.Lewis first (picture of him with a minister on the Bury Times website), the Labour Council or the Tory candidate by saying their government funded it (and seeing that it'll be an academy). If he makes it clear he fought for it he must do well in Radcliffe, on top of the independent successes there. I've had a brief look at 'recent' examples of former MPs standing as independents, one of those who did relatively well is Bob Spink in 'Castle Point' (me neither) who got 12,000 votes in 2010 on a 'save our green belt' banner (which Lewis ought to do). In the same election, Andrew Pelling, also former Tory just got over 3,000 votes and 6.5% but he only had one term incumbency. So given 22 years' incumbency surely his performance would be closer to Spink's than Pelling (and Danczuk/ Mike Hancock - former LD in Portsmouth, 700 votes!) . But as I'm not at home the only campaigning I can see so far is FB/Twitter only, not ideal for the (IMO) older than average electorate of Prestwich/Whitefield. I think of all the former MPs standing as Indys so far Grieve seems to be having the best campaign but haven't looked into all of them in great detail. I've seen leaflets and a refreshingly positive response to his social media on his re-standing. Tbf Frank Field has the best of the Indys thus far . I understand his launch and coverage resulted in both supporters and donations. I doubt he'll win but he should perform respectably, garnering the ex Lab Ind Cllrs' support in Oxton as well as some Tory support given his views and it's an unwinnable for them. Add to that casework votes and I'd estimate he should receive anything from 5% to 35%.
The East Devon Ind PPC was the best Ind in the betting, but with Sir Hugo stepping down her chances have diminished. Lady Sylvia is also standing down.
The view appears to be that most MPs who are standing as Inds or elsewhere (Berger + 6 so far) are doing so simply due to the severance pay a defeated Member receives.
I think the most likely seat for an Independent win is Ashfield. |
|
|
|
Post by nn2019 on Nov 6, 2019 22:42:26 GMT
Labour hold....but Ivan Lewis is a threat to both Tories and Labour. I guess he's in high regard in the area (local CLP aside) with the whole attempt to save Bury FC (RIP) situation and known to people? I don't know.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 6, 2019 23:47:24 GMT
Labour hold....but Ivan Lewis is a threat to both Tories and Labour. I guess he's in high regard in the area (local CLP aside) with the whole attempt to save Bury FC (RIP) situation and known to people? I don't know. I think the Bury FC issue will give James Frith more of an advantage than anything, given it's in his constituency and he is seemingly better at outreach - younger and more energy I guess! I'd say that Frith is someone who would go against the tide and hang on even if there was a Tory majority. |
|
|
|
Post by lancsobserver on Nov 7, 2019 0:08:34 GMT
I think the most likely seat for an Independent win is Ashfield. I tend to agree. I assume the reason it was omitted from the bookies' list is that Ashfield Inds are a Party (or more likely they suspended the betting on that seat). |
|
Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,494 
|
Post by Adrian on Nov 7, 2019 0:19:26 GMT
I think the most likely seat for an Independent win is Ashfield. East Devon, surely. |
|
|
|
Post by lancsobserver on Nov 7, 2019 0:21:04 GMT
It was there - in the betting - before Sir Hugo stood down.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 7, 2019 0:24:39 GMT
Stop Press! Another Independent candidate for Bury South! Also a lecturer at MMU, should be some interesting exchanges with his colleague Lucy Burke then at the hustings. twitter.com/himichael |
|
Merseymike
Labour
"Commie and Traitor"
Posts: 23,332
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 7, 2019 0:36:56 GMT
Stop Press! Another Independent candidate for Bury South! Also a lecturer at MMU, should be some interesting exchanges with his colleague Lucy Burke then at the hustings. twitter.com/himichaelGuest lecturer. That means he does a couple of lectures a year. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 7, 2019 9:32:32 GMT
Stop Press! Another Independent candidate for Bury South! Also a lecturer at MMU, should be some interesting exchanges with his colleague Lucy Burke then at the hustings. twitter.com/himichaelGuest lecturer. That means he does a couple of lectures a year. And guest marketing lecturer at that. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 7, 2019 9:55:59 GMT
Guest lecturer. That means he does a couple of lectures a year. And guest marketing lecturer at that. Looking at the self-promotion, it couldn't be anything else. |
|
