Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214 
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2019 20:48:54 GMT
The president will be elected in December (RunOff in January).
The blond&pretty HDZ-incumbent is in OpinionPolls in front at 30%, followed by her exPM Milanovic (exCommunistic SDP, supported by their usual allies HSS (peasants), HSU (pensionists) and the regionalist PGS [from the northern coast around Rijeka; the Istrian IDS will doubtlessly follow]) around 25%; third is a popular FolkSinger supported by the right right of HDZ (Hrast&HKS [cath.&cons.], HSP-1861 [nat.], ...), but also by rightliberal (valid these days?) Most/Bridge, at 15-20%; fourth around 10% is an exJudge, who ran already in the EP-election (ending in single digits).
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2019 20:53:06 GMT
Was happening today. With over 90% counted SDP's exPM Milanovic is clearly ahead. The HDZ-incumbent seems to be second. So better for Milanovic than most polls had indicated; yet, the third-placed candidate was mainly endorsed by the Conservatives&Nationalists (also by liberal MOST and a GREEN-party), so Mrs.GrabarK. should win in the RunOff (but narrowlier than thought). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Croatian_presidential_election |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2019 20:59:41 GMT
Except 33 PreCincts in ZagrebCity everything is counted. Mrs. GrabarKitarovic seems to have achieved the second place. Electoral Commission: www.izbori.hr/pre2019/rezultati/1/ |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,693
|
Post by iain on Dec 22, 2019 21:01:27 GMT
Was happening today. With over 90% counted SDP's exPM Milanovic is clearly ahead. The HDZ-incumbent seems to be second. So better for Milanovic than most polls had indicated; yet, the third-placed candidate was mainly endorsed by the Conservatives&Nationalists (also by liberal MOST and a GREEN-party), so Mrs.GrabarK. should win in the RunOff (but narrowlier than thought). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Croatian_presidential_electionIndeed, though he stood as an Independent, Škoro ((the third placed candidate) is a former member of parliament for HDZ. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2019 21:05:24 GMT
Obvious is, that Milanovic has performed best in SDP's traditional StrongHolds.
More interesting is the OutCome on the (centre)right: The HDZ-woman won the touristy&wealthy areas along the coast in Dalmacia, while Slavonia went to the HardRighty.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2019 23:24:27 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 4, 2020 22:23:19 GMT
While i - but also austrian journalists, who are InSiders (some Croatian NewsPapers belong to "Styria", which is owned by the Catholic Church of Styria) - expected the HDZ-incumbent to be favoured for the RunOff, the few published OpinionPolls (collected at wikipedia) tell another story. Additionally Milanovic seems to have won a TeleVision-debate very clearly.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 4, 2020 22:24:45 GMT
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,644
|
Post by nelson on Jan 5, 2020 18:14:17 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 5, 2020 19:06:57 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 5, 2020 19:23:07 GMT
Quite a ComeBack for Milanovic, who was not exactly popular when leaving office.
He would apparently have been SDP's best man for PM-ship, though. Their present chief Barnardic seems to be too young&unexperienced for being a serious PM-contender later this year. Pernar's departure from ZZ should help SDP, too.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,644
|
Post by nelson on Jan 5, 2020 21:36:42 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 6, 2020 2:46:48 GMT
Waiting for EpiPhany i compared the county-results with last time:
The TurnOut fell everywhere, without a clear pattern.
The % of the HDZ-woman rose in eastern Slavonia, where the third candidate had done best (and as a result: where i didn't expect it at all), and fell everywhere else, the most in&around Zagreb (unsurprisingly, as the SDP-incumbent had performed quite badly there during the late days of the unpopular SDP-government under Milanovic).
Both combined - so her share of the total electorate - she lost most in ZagrebCity (-6.83%) and SplitCounty (-6.37%; obviously due to the incorporated city), the smallest losses happened in rural StrongHolds of SDP&allies (-1.x% in Istria and Medimurje), those between give us an unclear picture.
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Jan 6, 2020 9:00:52 GMT
It's still quite a turnaround. Given that he only got 30% in the first round, the combined right wing vote should have indicated an HDZ win.
But it wasn't even that close.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 7, 2020 22:16:58 GMT
Milanovic been most recently poncing around as an adviser to another dubious Balkan quasi-Leftie, Edi Rama of Albania.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 14, 2020 17:19:20 GMT
Changes in the PresidentialElections 2015-2020 (left = TurnOut; mid = HDZ-% of ValidVotes; right = HDZ-% of Electorate):  |
|
