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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 28, 2019 20:29:44 GMT
There is the minor detail that Tommy Robinson isn't a member of UKIP and that he is actually standing against the party in the North West of England. The implications of this seems rather to be lost on this Tweeter though Has anyone pointed this out to him?
If you go further down the thread the Brexit party get a right kicking and Nigel Farage is apparently an "establishment puppet". Lordy lord above.
It seems unlikely that, as an independent, Yaxley-Lennon can win a seat. So his impact would only be to reduce the vote for Brexit/UKIP. ?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 28, 2019 20:43:43 GMT
Has anyone pointed this out to him?
If you go further down the thread the Brexit party get a right kicking and Nigel Farage is apparently an "establishment puppet". Lordy lord above.
It seems unlikely that, as an independent, Yaxley-Lennon can win a seat. So his impact would only be to reduce the vote for Brexit/UKIP. ? Most likely yes, though I wouldn't entirely rule him out
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 29, 2019 19:42:27 GMT
thats all very interesting Pete, but I never made any mention of age profile. I still stand by my statement. Both parties are effectively personality cults - yes they have a policy (singular) but if Farage left BP tomorrow and returned to UKIP, I maintain that both parties polling numbers would virtually flip overnight. You were responding to a post which drew attention to the different age profiles of the supporters of the two parties so you didn't need to mention it explicitly - that is the discussion you involved yourself in. Your original statement was that the Brexit party was a personality cult based on Nigel Farage but now you are extending the same description to UKIP. I don't agree with you about the Brexit party but I understand why you would say it (and it's undeniable that Farage does have an appeal which is a large factor in the high support levels that party is getting) - but are you saying that UKIP is a personality cult now? If so who is the personality? Gerard Batten?? And you may also be right that if Farage were to go back to UKIP (a pretty unlikely scenario at this point but lets go with it) that many of those older supporters would follow him. But the other side of what you are proposing is that the younger voters currently supporting UKIP would flip the other way. That I can't understand.. Yes sorry Pete - I quoted the wrong post. My point wasnt about age profiles at all, it was about the cult of personality - sorry if I bamboozled you a bit! At least you were paying attention
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carolus
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Post by carolus on May 15, 2019 13:16:01 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on May 18, 2019 9:12:09 GMT
These are just polls, but it is instructive to see the difference between the 'crowd-surge' effect of the Euros a one-track issue in a pseudo election and the more austere multi-policy potential GE at some unknown time. Whether these polls are generally correct or not, the clear trending is for convinced Leavers wishing to 'make a statement' in the current and actual poll of the Euros. This may still have a pull effect in the final week that pushes The Brexit Party to greater heights? Loyalty and the normal course have been suspended for this one election. This is pay-back and expressions of anger, disgust, annoyance and frustration in varying degrees from people who might be satisfied by a quite soft Brexit, as well as ultras like me who are very bitter indeed. The Conservatives have been very foolish to do or say anything about these elections. They should have ignored them with disdain and put up no candidates. When we get to the further off unknown quantity of a projected GE the Brexit Party support falls steeply as it is not only for an unknown event but in unknown circumstances. There is a spill-over core there emerging for a Continuation Brexit Party and a rather good initial figure but one unlikely to grow fast until there is clarification on issues. Is The Brexit Party a real political party or just a single issue protest escape valve? If it is to be a continuation party it does not have the right name! It has no constitution, no internal democracy (like most Farage vehicles) no known policies on anything except Brexit, unknown number of members, probably insufficient possible prospective candidates for a GE, and certainly far too little infrastructure to fight one. It would still 'do' quite well in votes if candidates could be found, but I doubt they would win more than a handful of seats. Yet the effect on Labour would be significant and on the Conservatives probably dramatic? If we see The Brexit Party come in first place with most seats next week, followed by furore and dull resentment amongst the Conservative MPs, then yet another bad defeat of the May WA, then her resignation, then a bitter and unpleasant blood-letting leadership contest (my favourite) and then a partial break of of the party if a Johnson, Javid, Raab type group seize power and start a serious purge and policy refit.............Then perhaps the Brexit Party might reverse into the rump Conservatives and take it in a new direction. That is likely to be more enduringly successful for each party than a Brexit Party stand-alone with the right/Brexit wings shearing off the Conservatives into that Brexit Party.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 23, 2019 22:21:42 GMT
LDs on a lower share for the Euro elections than Westminster — doesn't seem right, but who knows.
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Post by carolus on May 27, 2019 9:43:47 GMT
Think they should be feeling pretty embarrassed about this one. Got BXP about right, but the next four parties completely wrong.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2019 9:47:18 GMT
Nope, that's their Euro elections poll. And yes it was some way out.
Overstating turnout, possibly?
(as IMO a lot of disproportionately Labour, and also some Tory, voters simply didn't vote)
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2019 11:14:28 GMT
(as IMO a lot of disproportionately Labour, and also some Tory, voters simply didn't vote) It was clear that this was going to happen a few weeks at least before the vote; both parties had (insanely, suicidally) as good as signaled that it was fine to sit this one out. Why even run candidates if you're going to do that?
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Post by tonygreaves on May 28, 2019 10:17:51 GMT
Survation are just rubbish.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 28, 2019 10:28:06 GMT
Survation are just rubbish. But they still got the last 2 GEs right, pretty much.
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Post by finsobruce on May 28, 2019 10:32:00 GMT
Survation are just rubbish. But they still got the last 2 GEs right, pretty much. Which is more than can be said for most people, including most of us.
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Post by Vibe on May 28, 2019 10:38:43 GMT
The question is, how accurate are the Westminster polls?
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Post by finsobruce on May 28, 2019 10:43:19 GMT
The question is, how accurate are the Westminster polls?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 28, 2019 10:44:38 GMT
The question is, how accurate are the Westminster polls? We only really have GE results as an indicator there, hence my above comment. It may be that Survation got lucky on both occasions (and they famously didn't publish their poll in 2015 because they didn't trust it) but it would indeed be something to be lucky three times on the trot, so we await their findings for the next GE (whenever that might be) with interest.
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