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Post by manchesterman on Apr 27, 2019 20:19:07 GMT
All that this proves is that UKIP was the Farage Fan Club and they've now disappeared since the Brexit Party became the Farage Fan Club!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2019 20:33:35 GMT
All that this proves is that UKIP was the Farage Fan Club and they've now disappeared since the Brexit Party became the Farage Fan Club! No its more than that. UKIP are on 14% amongst 18-24 year olds in that poll which puts them second only to Labour and twice the level of Brexit party support. UKIP support is negligible amongst older age groups but significant amongst the young. It's actually quite encouraging - there's a similar pattern with the English Democrats (though the numbers overall are small so can't read too much into it) they have 3% amongst the two youngest age groups and nothing from anyone over 45. Between UKIP, Brexit Party and English Democrats there is 25% support amongst 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds. Whereas the Brexit party vote amongst older voters comes overwhelmingly from Conservative voters who will likely go back if someone like Boris became leader, the figures for the younger age groups show there is more of a basis for a serious nationalist/populist party on the right that can win significant support amongst the young
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 27, 2019 20:36:25 GMT
If UKIP are on 7% nationally, they might easily be in a position to win seats in their strongest regions - would have said South East, East of England and South West are the most likely.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 27, 2019 21:16:34 GMT
If UKIP are on 7% nationally, they might easily be in a position to win seats in their strongest regions - would have said South East, East of England and South West are the most likely. The South West is unlikely, they have had their high water mark there and never came close to a seat.
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Post by mrpastelito on Apr 27, 2019 21:32:32 GMT
If UKIP are on 7% nationally, they might easily be in a position to win seats in their strongest regions - would have said South East, East of England and South West are the most likely. The South West is unlikely, they have had there high water mark their and never came close to a seat. What? They won two seats in 2014.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 27, 2019 21:32:47 GMT
If UKIP are on 7% nationally, they might easily be in a position to win seats in their strongest regions - would have said South East, East of England and South West are the most likely. The South West is unlikely, they have had there high water mark their and never came close to a seat. They topped the poll there in 2014, and won the first and third seats. A back of the envelope calculation, but the UK-wide UKIP vote in 2014 was 27.5%. In this poll the combined UKIP + Brexit Party is 34%, of which 7% is UKIP. If we uprate the 2014 UKIP vote in the South West in the same proportion then divide it between Brexit Party and UKIP in the same proportion, that gets a Brexit Party vote of 31% and UKIP vote of 8%. They only have to get to 11% to be in with a shot of seats.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2019 21:47:52 GMT
The South West was traditionally one of UKIP's strongest regions but hasn't really been that way for the last decade and I think more of the UKIP inclined vote in that region would be likely to move across to the Brexit party. I think new 'UKIP' will do better (% wise)in regions like the North East and are more likely to get a seat in the West Midlands than the South West. East of England is a good chance too though and South East if only because of the number of available seats
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mondialito
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Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Survation
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Post by mondialito on Apr 27, 2019 22:08:04 GMT
he is not hated by most the party in fact red room were practically unanimous in their gratitude to see Barnaby remain in the red room Re-read what I said. I said "party", as in wider party, not forum party. Regardless I've said what I've long felt about him and his periodic, sudden, unprovoked and out of the blue attacks upon me and my character. I'm leaving for a month today, I had wanted to leave normally and quietly but he had to attack today... Is making an observation really an attack though?
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 27, 2019 22:36:29 GMT
All that this proves is that UKIP was the Farage Fan Club and they've now disappeared since the Brexit Party became the Farage Fan Club! No its more than that. UKIP are on 14% amongst 18-24 year olds in that poll which puts them second only to Labour and twice the level of Brexit party support. UKIP support is negligible amongst older age groups but significant amongst the young. It's actually quite encouraging - there's a similar pattern with the English Democrats (though the numbers overall are small so can't read too much into it) they have 3% amongst the two youngest age groups and nothing from anyone over 45. Between UKIP, Brexit Party and English Democrats there is 25% support amongst 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds. Whereas the Brexit party vote amongst older voters comes overwhelmingly from Conservative voters who will likely go back if someone like Boris became leader, the figures for the younger age groups show there is more of a basis for a serious nationalist/populist party on the right that can win significant support amongst the young thats all very interesting Pete, but I never made any mention of age profile. I still stand by my statement. Both parties are effectively personality cults - yes they have a policy (singular) but if Farage left BP tomorrow and returned to UKIP, I maintain that both parties polling numbers would virtually flip overnight.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2019 23:02:08 GMT
No its more than that. UKIP are on 14% amongst 18-24 year olds in that poll which puts them second only to Labour and twice the level of Brexit party support. UKIP support is negligible amongst older age groups but significant amongst the young. It's actually quite encouraging - there's a similar pattern with the English Democrats (though the numbers overall are small so can't read too much into it) they have 3% amongst the two youngest age groups and nothing from anyone over 45. Between UKIP, Brexit Party and English Democrats there is 25% support amongst 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds. Whereas the Brexit party vote amongst older voters comes overwhelmingly from Conservative voters who will likely go back if someone like Boris became leader, the figures for the younger age groups show there is more of a basis for a serious nationalist/populist party on the right that can win significant support amongst the young thats all very interesting Pete, but I never made any mention of age profile. I still stand by my statement. Both parties are effectively personality cults - yes they have a policy (singular) but if Farage left BP tomorrow and returned to UKIP, I maintain that both parties polling numbers would virtually flip overnight. You were responding to a post which drew attention to the different age profiles of the supporters of the two parties so you didn't need to mention it explicitly - that is the discussion you involved yourself in. Your original statement was that the Brexit party was a personality cult based on Nigel Farage but now you are extending the same description to UKIP. I don't agree with you about the Brexit party but I understand why you would say it (and it's undeniable that Farage does have an appeal which is a large factor in the high support levels that party is getting) - but are you saying that UKIP is a personality cult now? If so who is the personality? Gerard Batten?? And you may also be right that if Farage were to go back to UKIP (a pretty unlikely scenario at this point but lets go with it) that many of those older supporters would follow him. But the other side of what you are proposing is that the younger voters currently supporting UKIP would flip the other way. That I can't understand..
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 27, 2019 23:07:05 GMT
No its more than that. UKIP are on 14% amongst 18-24 year olds in that poll which puts them second only to Labour and twice the level of Brexit party support. UKIP support is negligible amongst older age groups but significant amongst the young. It's actually quite encouraging - there's a similar pattern with the English Democrats (though the numbers overall are small so can't read too much into it) they have 3% amongst the two youngest age groups and nothing from anyone over 45. Between UKIP, Brexit Party and English Democrats there is 25% support amongst 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds. Whereas the Brexit party vote amongst older voters comes overwhelmingly from Conservative voters who will likely go back if someone like Boris became leader, the figures for the younger age groups show there is more of a basis for a serious nationalist/populist party on the right that can win significant support amongst the young thats all very interesting Pete, but I never made any mention of age profile. I still stand by my statement. Both parties are effectively personality cults - yes they have a policy (singular) but if Farage left BP tomorrow and returned to UKIP, I maintain that both parties polling numbers would virtually flip overnight. Not quite. They are both single issue parties, though in each case the single issue is a proxy for a range of irritants; and Farage is far and away the best frontman at presenting that single issue as the proxy for those irritants. He has never even tried to present a solution, other than the most simplistic approach to the single issue. Which is his genius, because when you start get down to the detail it all gets tricky and divisive. But if he went away, the irritants would still be there and the identification with the proxy is strong enough that it'd still resonate. It's not Farage as personality that matters, it is his approach. UKIP try to articulate a vision of what might follow; and as such, get into areas that turn off plenty voters and lose even Farage. But Pete and Kipper are right in noting that it is UKIP that pick up some sort of support amongst people who have a stake in thinking about the long term, as opposed to just rejecting the present for being too different to the past. It is a pretty small group, largely composed of people who aren't being very successful at handling the present, but it is there.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2019 23:09:55 GMT
I'm reminded of where ever Redknapp went to manage the same footballers would follow; Defoe, Crouch, etc.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 28, 2019 15:37:55 GMT
thats all very interesting Pete, but I never made any mention of age profile. I still stand by my statement. Both parties are effectively personality cults - yes they have a policy (singular) but if Farage left BP tomorrow and returned to UKIP, I maintain that both parties polling numbers would virtually flip overnight. You were responding to a post which drew attention to the different age profiles of the supporters of the two parties so you didn't need to mention it explicitly - that is the discussion you involved yourself in. Your original statement was that the Brexit party was a personality cult based on Nigel Farage but now you are extending the same description to UKIP. I don't agree with you about the Brexit party but I understand why you would say it (and it's undeniable that Farage does have an appeal which is a large factor in the high support levels that party is getting) - but are you saying that UKIP is a personality cult now? If so who is the personality? Gerard Batten?? Tommy Robinson, Sargon of Akkad, that Meechan guy, other Youtube personalities...
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 28, 2019 15:52:06 GMT
You were responding to a post which drew attention to the different age profiles of the supporters of the two parties so you didn't need to mention it explicitly - that is the discussion you involved yourself in. Your original statement was that the Brexit party was a personality cult based on Nigel Farage but now you are extending the same description to UKIP. I don't agree with you about the Brexit party but I understand why you would say it (and it's undeniable that Farage does have an appeal which is a large factor in the high support levels that party is getting) - but are you saying that UKIP is a personality cult now? If so who is the personality? Gerard Batten?? Tommy Robinson, Sargon of Akkad, that Meechan guy, other Youtube personalities... Which doesn't make it a personality cult, as there are quite a few of them, none are the leader and none of them dominate or have a bigger draw than the others.
I can think of several other descriptions for them though....
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 28, 2019 19:17:05 GMT
Tommy Robinson, Sargon of Akkad, that Meechan guy, other Youtube personalities... Which doesn't make it a personality cult, as there are quite a few of them, none are the leader and none of them dominate or have a bigger draw than the others.
I can think of several other descriptions for them though....
Now, now - remember your penny catechism: thinking a sin is as bad as committing one!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 28, 2019 19:21:43 GMT
You were responding to a post which drew attention to the different age profiles of the supporters of the two parties so you didn't need to mention it explicitly - that is the discussion you involved yourself in. Your original statement was that the Brexit party was a personality cult based on Nigel Farage but now you are extending the same description to UKIP. I don't agree with you about the Brexit party but I understand why you would say it (and it's undeniable that Farage does have an appeal which is a large factor in the high support levels that party is getting) - but are you saying that UKIP is a personality cult now? If so who is the personality? Gerard Batten?? Tommy Robinson, Sargon of Akkad, that Meechan guy, other Youtube personalities... There is the minor detail that Tommy Robinson isn't a member of UKIP and that he is actually standing against the party in the North West of England. The implications of this seems rather to be lost on this Tweeter though
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 28, 2019 19:25:54 GMT
Which doesn't make it a personality cult, as there are quite a few of them, none are the leader and none of them dominate or have a bigger draw than the others.
I can think of several other descriptions for them though....
Now, now - remember your penny catechism: thinking a sin is as bad as committing one! Ah, I'm post Vatican Two London suburbs. Nobody ever gave me a penny catechism.
We're all done for on that basis!
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 28, 2019 19:34:10 GMT
Which doesn't make it a personality cult, as there are quite a few of them, none are the leader and none of them dominate or have a bigger draw than the others.
I can think of several other descriptions for them though....
Now, now - remember your penny catechism: thinking a sin is as bad as committing one! I am reminded of an Andy Capp cartoon where Andy is ogling a passing beauty prompting an (also) passing priest to make exactly the remark above. At which point Andy exits, pursuing the girl, saying "And there was me, hesitating ..."
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 28, 2019 19:35:47 GMT
Tommy Robinson, Sargon of Akkad, that Meechan guy, other Youtube personalities... There is the minor detail that Tommy Robinson isn't a member of UKIP and that he is actually standing against the party in the North West of England. The implications of this seems rather to be lost on this Tweeter though Has anyone pointed this out to him?
If you go further down the thread the Brexit party get a right kicking and Nigel Farage is apparently an "establishment puppet". Lordy lord above.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 28, 2019 19:36:41 GMT
Now, now - remember your penny catechism: thinking a sin is as bad as committing one! I am reminded of an Andy Capp cartoon where Andy is ogling a passing beauty prompting an (also) passing priest to make exactly the remark above. At which point Andy exits, pursuing the girl, saying "And there was me, hesitating ..."You are moving from the paths of virtue, Brother Gwynn.
Quick, before anyone sees you.
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