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Post by Devonian on Nov 8, 2014 23:09:09 GMT
Lab 34% (+3) Con 29% (+2) UKIP 23% (-1) LD 6% (-3)
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Post by Devonian on Nov 9, 2014 9:42:53 GMT
Survation, like YouGov, also did a set of questions based on the Labour leadership
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Post by Devonian on Dec 23, 2014 22:15:59 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2014 22:54:47 GMT
If that is the GE result next year I would be more than happy.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 24, 2014 0:14:21 GMT
If that is the GE result next year I would be more than happy. Yes, if offered that today I would shake hands on it immediately.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 27, 2014 11:50:51 GMT
The final GB-wide poll of the year confirms that many Tories were overconfident in expecting they would be clearly ahead by now.
Are they still similarly complacent about the GE?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2014 12:22:17 GMT
The final GB-wide poll of the year confirms that many Tories were overconfident in expecting they would be clearly ahead by now. Are they still similarly complacent about the GE? Call it confidence or complacency, whatever floats your boat.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2014 12:27:06 GMT
The final GB-wide poll of the year confirms that many Tories were overconfident in expecting they would be clearly ahead by now. Are they still similarly complacent about the GE? I am confident we will outpoll you in May.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 27, 2014 13:05:15 GMT
The final GB-wide poll of the year confirms that many Tories were overconfident in expecting they would be clearly ahead by now. Are they still similarly complacent about the GE? I am confident we will outpoll you in May. Are you confident that the Conservatives will remain in office after the election?
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Post by timokane on Dec 28, 2014 3:25:13 GMT
I can't see where this sustained Tory poll improvement is going to come from that was supposed to have started before Christmas. Any improvement in economic figures will be regarded with deep suspicion and Osborne must surely eat a huge slab of humble pie when he announces the final deficit figures of the whole parliament in spring. No amount of stage managed performances at PMQs is going to turn this one around. It's gonna be interesting.
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Post by The Old TomCat on Dec 28, 2014 8:31:16 GMT
I can't see where this sustained Tory poll improvement is going to come from that was supposed to have started before Christmas. Any improvement in economic figures will be regarded with deep suspicion and Osborne must surely eat a huge slab of humble pie when he announces the final deficit figures of the whole parliament in spring. No amount of stage managed performances at PMQs is going to turn this one around. It's gonna be interesting. Polls always get better for the governing party in the immediate build up to General Elections. That is why Labour must be concerned. To stand a better than average chance of winning in May they should be a few points ahead at this time. Having said that Labour have an in-built advantage with regards winning parliamentary seats so the Conservatives could look at the same polls with a little bit of anxiety. As regards the economic figures, voters sometimes overlook bad news if they believe the governing party is doing its best for the country. Because of the dire economic situation that affected not only UK but most of the rest of the world, winning GE2010 and GE2015 was and will always be considered a poisoned chalice.
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Post by The Old TomCat on Dec 28, 2014 9:00:11 GMT
Are you confident that the Conservatives will remain in office after the election? Difficult question to answer at present time. Unlike GE1979 or GE1997 when it was a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives and Labour would regain power, it seems that GE2015 will be a closer fought time. My personal observation is that both Conservative and Labour will increase the number of seats held, almost exclusively from the LibDems. The present popularity for the Greens and Ukip will fall away in May. Okay Ukip will take more Conservative votes than Labour votes but the Conservatives have learnt to live with Ukip/Referendum Party while the high flying SNP is a new challenge to Labour. So yes I truly believe the Conservatives will win with a small outright majority.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 28, 2014 10:03:03 GMT
My personal observation is that both Conservative and Labour will increase the number of seats held, almost exclusively from the LibDems. The present popularity for the Greens and Ukip will fall away in May. Okay Ukip will take more Conservative votes than Labour votes but the Conservatives have learnt to live with Ukip/Referendum Party while the high flying SNP is a new challenge to Labour. So yes I truly believe the Conservatives will win with a small outright majority. I can't agree. Lab will gain in England but lose in Scotland. While they may have a few net gains, I'm not so sure. Similarly, the Tories may gain a handful from the Lib Dems but may lose more to Labour and UKIP. It wouldn't surprise me if both Labour and Conservative tallies went down by a few in May.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 28, 2014 10:47:27 GMT
Polls always get better for the governing party in the immediate build up to General Elections There is in fact no hard and fast rule about this, contrary to what *is* an almost universal occurrence - that governing parties almost always lose support DURING the actual election campaign. If the Tories aren't clearly ahead in the polls by March, they are very likely sunk.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 28, 2014 11:51:00 GMT
Are you confident that the Conservatives will remain in office after the election? Difficult question to answer at present time. Unlike GE1979 or GE1997 when it was a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives and Labour would regain power, it seems that GE2015 will be a closer fought time. My personal observation is that both Conservative and Labour will increase the number of seats held, almost exclusively from the LibDems. The present popularity for the Greens and Ukip will fall away in May. Okay Ukip will take more Conservative votes than Labour votes but the Conservatives have learnt to live with Ukip/Referendum Party while the high flying SNP is a new challenge to Labour. So yes I truly believe the Conservatives will win with a small outright majority. I'm not sure why you think the Conservatives will fail to lose significant numbers of seats to Labour in May. In 2010 they were about 7% ahead of Labour in the popular vote. To stay still they'll need a little more than that because Labour has lost about 15 points in Scotand. This equates to a loss of just over 1% GB wide. However since it is the SNP and not the Conservatives they are competing with in Scotland this loss is no gain to the Tories. So to stand still against Labour they'll need about 8% lead over Labour. The latest polls show them slightly behind so to get back to where they were they need to gain more than eight percent over Labour. Since as The Bishop points out governing parties tend to fall back during the election campaign itself they actually need a double digit gain over Labour in the next three months to avoid losing seats to Labour. I just can't see that happening.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 28, 2014 12:06:56 GMT
Polls always get better for the governing party in the immediate build up to General Elections There is in fact no hard and fast rule about this, contrary to what *is* an almost universal occurrence - that governing parties almost always lose support DURING the actual election campaign. If the Tories aren't clearly ahead in the polls by March, they are very likely sunk. I'm wondering actually if that might not be understating it. One thing that a number of people have commented on is the way that, because of the fixed term Parliament act, the parties and their MPs have already been getting into election mode before Christmas. I have to wonder if the point at which the media get into full speed election mode might not be a few weeks earlier than usual. I wonder if that means that the fall back of governing party support might not start earlier. In which case the Conservatives have even less time.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2014 13:13:36 GMT
I am confident we will outpoll you in May. Are you confident that the Conservatives will remain in office after the election? No. I still tend towards a Lib Lab SNP having the numbers and both Lib Lab and Lib Con not. I think that if Labour took this option they face an enormous backlash. The SNP are seen rightly as totally beyond what is acceptable.
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Post by The Old TomCat on Dec 28, 2014 13:26:57 GMT
The latest polls show them slightly behind so to get back to where they were they need to gain more than eight percent over Labour. Since as The Bishop points out governing parties tend to fall back during the election campaign itself they actually need a double digit gain over Labour in the next three months to avoid losing seats to Labour. I just can't see that happening. I totally disagree with The Bishop and my observations are the exact opposite. And that applies to any party that is in government. However we have not experienced a formal coalition since the war so it will be interesting to see how that varies from norm.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 28, 2014 13:48:37 GMT
The latest polls show them slightly behind so to get back to where they were they need to gain more than eight percent over Labour. Since as The Bishop points out governing parties tend to fall back during the election campaign itself they actually need a double digit gain over Labour in the next three months to avoid losing seats to Labour. I just can't see that happening. I totally disagree with The Bishop and my observations are the exact opposite. And that applies to any party that is in government. However we have not experienced a formal coalition since the war so it will be interesting to see how that varies from norm. Leaving that point to one side for a moment the Tories still need to gain over 8% over Labour within four months to avoid losing ground to them. Where do you think that's going to come from? To win a small outright majority the number of Lib Dems seats won by the Tories would have to be at least 20 greater than the number of Tory seats won from Labour. Given that there are less than 40 Lib Dems seats where Tories were second last time and given that even a small Con to Lab swing will see Labour gaining Tory seats I just don't see how that can add up. Do you think the Tories will have a greater vote lead over Labour than in 2010?
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 28, 2014 14:21:31 GMT
The latest polls show them slightly behind so to get back to where they were they need to gain more than eight percent over Labour. Since as The Bishop points out governing parties tend to fall back during the election campaign itself they actually need a double digit gain over Labour in the next three months to avoid losing seats to Labour. I just can't see that happening. I totally disagree with The Bishop and my observations are the exact opposite. And that applies to any party that is in government. However we have not experienced a formal coalition since the war so it will be interesting to see how that varies from norm. It has probably become the new norm? I don't like the coalition but I feel an actual majority of those taking enough interest to vote probably do. There may be quite a strong defensive feeling for it that keeps far more LDs in place than had been expected. It might start to cause support for the more co-operative and consensual Conservatives as well. There will be worry growing in the final weeks if the SNP look too triumphant and confident in Scotland and the English become fearful of an alliance of wholly Scottish SNP with a fairly Scottish looking Labour, against the interests of the English. This is something all other parties should seek to emphasize at every turn........the dominance of the Scottish element in Labour........then and now.
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