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Survation
May 20, 2017 21:12:33 GMT
via mobile
Post by jollyroger93 on May 20, 2017 21:12:33 GMT
Latest Poll Con 46 (-2) Lab 34 (+4) LD 8 (-) UKIP 3 (1) All four polls tonight have shown a narrowing of the Tory lead. I think the increase in the labour vote is probably down to some red kippers returning to the party as well as the lib Dems losing about 2 to 3% of support to the Labour Party.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on May 21, 2017 23:39:23 GMT
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Survation
May 22, 2017 6:16:48 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 22, 2017 6:16:48 GMT
Similar narrative this weekend then across the polls. And again the Green vote appears to have gone to Labour along with half the Kippers.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 22, 2017 7:40:53 GMT
That isn't what the changes from the previous poll show is it
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Post by marksenior on May 22, 2017 7:48:02 GMT
That isn't what the changes from the previous poll show is it The changes are from the previous GMB poll also a telephone poll and UK wide including NI . The intermediate poll was an online poll not including NI . LDs in the latest poll are at 8 or 9 depending whether you round up or down 8.5% but excluding NI would be definitely 9 .
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thetop
Labour
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Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on May 23, 2017 11:11:14 GMT
That isn't what the changes from the previous poll show is it As Mark's explained above, it's changes from the earlier like-for-like poll.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,359
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Post by Tony Otim on May 23, 2017 11:28:55 GMT
That isn't what the changes from the previous poll show is it As Mark's explained above, it's changes from the earlier like-for-like poll. I don't think that was the point Pete was making. He was responding to devil's analysis that the Labour rise was coming from Greens and red kippers, whilst polls like this show a significant Labour rise with no fall in the UKIP vote.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on May 23, 2017 11:42:56 GMT
As Mark's explained above, it's changes from the earlier like-for-like poll. I don't think that was the point Pete was making. He was responding to devil's analysis that the Labour rise was coming from Greens and red kippers, whilst polls like this show a significant Labour rise with no fall in the UKIP vote. Ah, my mistake.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 29, 2017 14:54:40 GMT
"Survation/GoodMorningBritain (26-27 May):
Con 43% (-) Lab 37% (+3) LD 8% (-) UKIP 4% (-)"
Labour hoovering up the Green vote?
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Post by curiousliberal on May 29, 2017 15:06:50 GMT
"Survation/GoodMorningBritain (26-27 May): Con 43% (-) Lab 37% (+3) LD 8% (-) UKIP 4% (-)" Labour hoovering up the Green vote? Tbh I wouldn't be surprised if it was a result of that, plus rounding techiques possibly making certain 'no change' scores look slightly higher than they are (e.g. the Con/LD/UKIP scores might have a percentage point between them that is going to Labour). Evidently, the 'rogue' YouGov poll was anything but.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,792
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Survation
May 29, 2017 15:27:26 GMT
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Post by iain on May 29, 2017 15:27:26 GMT
Apparently the difference between polls such as Yougov and those such as ICM can be explained by the fact that the former uses likelihood to vote to model turnout, whereas the latter uses assumptions based on previous turnouts. Young people say they are going to vote in far larger numbers than previously, explaining the large discrepancy in Tory lead.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 29, 2017 15:40:56 GMT
Of course young people are very heavily concentrated in safe Labour seats. It may not help Labour much in terms of winning marginals.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,032
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Post by maxque on May 29, 2017 22:31:15 GMT
Of course young people are very heavily concentrated in safe Labour seats. It may not help Labour much in terms of winning marginals. Through, given the date of the elction, wouldn't the university semesters be off and students back home?
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Post by Andrew_S on May 29, 2017 22:39:38 GMT
Of course young people are very heavily concentrated in safe Labour seats. It may not help Labour much in terms of winning marginals. Through, given the date of the elction, wouldn't the university semesters be off and students back home? I didn't particularly mean university students, I just meant seats with larger than average young populations like East Ham, Birmingham Ladywood, Manchester Central, Liverpool Riverside, Newcastle Central, etc. Mostly safe Labour seats. A lot of the New Town (former) marginals in places like Swindon and Harlow used to have young populations but I don't think that's so much the case these days.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Survation
May 30, 2017 4:14:42 GMT
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Post by cogload on May 30, 2017 4:14:42 GMT
That 3% rise in the Survation poll is basically down to the Yoof plumpling for Jezza and claiming they will vote.
Hmm.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,535
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Post by Foggy on May 30, 2017 5:39:53 GMT
That 3% rise in the Survation poll is basically down to the Yoof plumpling for Jezza and claiming they will vote. Hmm. Are there any cross-breaks available, do you know? If those of pensionable age (who mostly actually vote how and when they say they will) are plumping for the Tories over Labour by a margin of around 65% to 20%, as some polls are suggesting, then we are still very much on for a Conservative landslide come the end of next week.
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Survation
May 30, 2017 7:59:52 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 30, 2017 7:59:52 GMT
Apparently the difference between polls such as Yougov and those such as ICM can be explained by the fact that the former uses likelihood to vote to model turnout, whereas the latter uses assumptions based on previous turnouts. Young people say they are going to vote in far larger numbers than previously, explaining the large discrepancy in Tory lead. Given that the turnout is being predicted to be low, is that therefore assuming that young non-voters will turn out and usual voters will not? Or has turnout not been factored in?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,792
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Post by iain on May 30, 2017 9:44:46 GMT
This Survation poll has 18-24 turnout at 82%. Since 1997, turnout for this age group has only reached 50% once - 52% in 2010. Last time it was 44%.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 30, 2017 9:46:51 GMT
This Survation poll has 18-24 turnout at 82%. Since 1997, turnout for this age group has only reached 50% once - 52% in 2010. Last time it was 44%. In other words that poll isn't very reliable. There's no way 18-24 turnout will be anywhere near 82%.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 30, 2017 10:09:46 GMT
No it does not; it has 82% of the 18-24s saying that are 10/10 certain to vote. The actual turnout rates in elections are always lower than the 10 out of 10/"absolutely certain"/100 out of 100 etc figures in the polls. On these figures turnout with the 18-24s would likely be at EU referendum levels (i.e. in the 60s).
The overall 10/10 percentage is at 81% which is the highest by far that I've seen during this campaign. The 25-34s are apparently the least likely to vote with 71% saying 10/10.
But it's worth stressing, as usual, that these are crosstabs with a high MoE. I would imagine the pollster in question takes this into consideration when weighting the VI percentages.
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