jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Dec 10, 2019 11:08:02 GMT
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 10, 2019 11:23:46 GMT
Similar to 2017 then.
That's not to say the results will be the same as then (most likely that we'll see a relatively small Tory majority), but Corbyn gaining in the final week happened then too. What we are yet to see is any sort of Labour improvement though.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 10, 2019 12:18:46 GMT
I have a sneaking feeling he's talking about Boris. Hope im wrong.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 10, 2019 14:45:10 GMT
I have a sneaking feeling he's talking about Boris. Hope im wrong. I don't know why when I saw the comment I thought of Corbyn. Probably because he is so far behind it made most sense to me. Some people on his Twitter thread reckon it's Swinson, but I can't see any reason why it would be her. We'll have to wait and see I guess.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Dec 10, 2019 15:00:01 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 10, 2019 15:31:13 GMT
I suspect Corbyn. Boris getting a lift in line with the ordinary polling wouldn't be much of a story.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,288
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 10, 2019 18:10:31 GMT
The country has had a road to Damascus conversion and realised that Swinson should be PM after all....
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Dec 10, 2019 18:30:12 GMT
Corbyn up 8% to -30%, now ‘only’ 16% behind Johnson.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 12, 2019 10:48:07 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 20, 2019 18:19:06 GMT
Ipsos have released their estimate of how different groups voted. Notably, compared to YouGov they have less voter switching including Labour holding 2/3 of their 2017 leavers. Also shows no occupational class differences in Tory lead between AB, C1 and C2 but has Labour and the Tories neck and neck with DE. Issues with defining class by occupation aside, this would make more sense than estimates by other pollsters. While obviously diminished, there’s still a clear class divide in constituency voting, particularly the poorest vs richest ones. www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 20, 2019 20:06:36 GMT
Ipsos have released their estimate of how different groups voted. Notably, compared to YouGov they have less voter switching including Labour holding 2/3 of their 2017 leavers. Also shows no occupational class differences in Tory lead between AB, C1 and C2 but has Labour and the Tories neck and neck with DE. Issues with defining class by occupation aside, this would make more sense than estimates by other pollsters. While obviously diminished, there’s still a clear class divide in constituency voting, particularly the poorest vs richest ones. www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-electionThey do, thankfully, include turnout figures, which YouGov did not. 62% of Labour leavers did vote, as did 74% of Conservative remainers. Both Conservative leave and Labour remain groups had 82% turnout. This supports the theory that many Labour leavers didn't actually bother voting rather than voting for the Conservatives/Brexit Party.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 20, 2019 20:11:32 GMT
Ipsos have released their estimate of how different groups voted. Notably, compared to YouGov they have less voter switching including Labour holding 2/3 of their 2017 leavers. Also shows no occupational class differences in Tory lead between AB, C1 and C2 but has Labour and the Tories neck and neck with DE. Issues with defining class by occupation aside, this would make more sense than estimates by other pollsters. While obviously diminished, there’s still a clear class divide in constituency voting, particularly the poorest vs richest ones. www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-electionThey do, thankfully, include turnout figures, which YouGov did not. 62% of Labour leavers didn't vote, nor did 74% of Conservative remainers. Both Conservative leave and Labour remain groups had 82% turnout. This supports the theory that many Labour leavers didn't actually bother voting rather than voting for the Conservatives/Brexit Party. 62% of Labour Leavers did vote as did 74% of Tory Remainers.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 20, 2019 20:34:40 GMT
They do, thankfully, include turnout figures, which YouGov did not. 62% of Labour leavers didn't vote, nor did 74% of Conservative remainers. Both Conservative leave and Labour remain groups had 82% turnout. This supports the theory that many Labour leavers didn't actually bother voting rather than voting for the Conservatives/Brexit Party. 62% of Labour Leavers did vote as did 74% of Tory Remainers. Fixed my post. Had in my mind that so many Labour leavers didn't vote than I muddled my words.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Feb 6, 2020 16:07:02 GMT
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Post by tonygreaves on Feb 6, 2020 23:21:41 GMT
A bit more to talk about here.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 19, 2020 14:12:41 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Mar 19, 2020 14:16:10 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 14:28:46 GMT
is there any point in polling bxp now
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
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Post by hedgehog on Mar 19, 2020 14:35:04 GMT
is there any point in polling bxp now If that poll doesn't wake people up to the fact we need a new radical centrist party, nothing will.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 19, 2020 14:37:53 GMT
is there any point in polling bxp now I think we can extend this further and ask if there's any point in polling right now.
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