Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2017 11:31:53 GMT
This feels about right.
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Post by marksenior on Jun 8, 2017 14:10:31 GMT
This Ipsos Poll like the previous one had 10% LDs in the sample weighted down to 7% ( 106 voters reduced to 77 ) Interestingly before turn out weighting adjustments Con and Lab were exactly the same 41% ( 439 voters each ) . Labour were of course actually in the lead in the original sample
Original sample Lab 43 Con 38 LD 10 After initial weighting Lab 41 Con 41 LD 7 After turnout weighting Lab 36 Con 44 LD 7
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Jun 8, 2017 14:17:00 GMT
This Ipsos Poll like the previous one had 10% LDs in the sample weighted down to 7% ( 106 voters reduced to 77 ) Interestingly before turn out weighting adjustments Con and Lab were exactly the same 41% ( 439 voters each ) . Labour were of course actually in the lead in the original sample Original sample Lab 43 Con 38 LD 10 After initial weighting Lab 41 Con 41 LD 7 After turnout weighting Lab 36 Con 44 LD 7 Mark I'm sorry to break it to you but the Lib Dems aren't going to get 10%. I know this is hard to accept, but I think for your own sake the pain will be easier if you just accept that now.
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Post by marksenior on Jun 8, 2017 14:44:24 GMT
This Ipsos Poll like the previous one had 10% LDs in the sample weighted down to 7% ( 106 voters reduced to 77 ) Interestingly before turn out weighting adjustments Con and Lab were exactly the same 41% ( 439 voters each ) . Labour were of course actually in the lead in the original sample Original sample Lab 43 Con 38 LD 10 After initial weighting Lab 41 Con 41 LD 7 After turnout weighting Lab 36 Con 44 LD 7 Mark I'm sorry to break it to you but the Lib Dems aren't going to get 10%. I know this is hard to accept, but I think for your own sake the pain will be easier if you just accept that now. I think 10% is quite achievable , we will see in a few hours .
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2017 9:10:55 GMT
It appears that this lot fiddled with their final pre-election poll, rather like YouGov did. Hopefully that will be a bit of a lesson?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 20, 2017 10:57:00 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 20, 2017 12:07:02 GMT
Some stunningly bad Hot Takes on from all across the media, I note.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 20, 2017 22:27:13 GMT
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Post by Lifeless on Jul 20, 2017 13:12:08 GMT
Last poll was June 8th. Lab +6% Con -3% LDem +2% UKIP -1% Green No Change
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jul 20, 2017 15:17:49 GMT
Whats the difference between Headline intention & All giving a voting intention? Is Headline just those who are certain to vote?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 20, 2017 16:00:15 GMT
Yes. They've done this for over fifteen years now.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 20, 2017 17:23:48 GMT
Theresa May is still more popular than the government as a whole. May has a net satisfaction rate of -26% (34-59); the Government -36% (29-64). Looking through the data tables, apparently one person thinks that Nicola Sturgeon would make the best Prime Minister - and they appear to live in the South of England. I can confirm that I wasn't involved in this poll, FTR.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
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Post by thetop on Sept 21, 2017 18:56:16 GMT
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Post by jigger on Sept 21, 2017 19:02:02 GMT
Thanks for posting those, thetop. Another question that Ipsos-MORI asked in this poll was about how people viewed the two main parties and their leaders. I was very surprised to discover that whilst 40% of respondents were intending to vote for the Conservative Party, only 38% actually liked the Conservative Party. I found that a very interesting finding - it's probably happened before but it does seem, at least at first sight, counter-intuitive that more people are planning to vote for a party than actually like the party.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 21, 2017 19:36:56 GMT
Thanks for posting those, thetop . Another question that Ipsos-MORI asked in this poll was about how people viewed the two main parties and their leaders. I was very surprised to discover that whilst 40% of respondents were intending to vote for the Conservative Party, only 38% actually liked the Conservative Party. I found that a very interesting finding - it's probably happened before but it does seem, at least at first sight, counter-intuitive that more people are planning to vote for a party than actually like the party.This is exactly the point I've made to you before. Both the two main parties have unprecedentedly high vote shares atm. This is not necessarily the same as having the respect let alone love of the electorate. It is perfectly rational to vote for Party A if you think the only alternative his Party B and you think Party B would be disastrous in government. To some extent the worse the two main parties are the more votes they can monopolise, so long as it is simultaneous, as the dreadfulness of each forces voters to choose the opposite, however reluctantly. For a 3rd party to succeed you not only need to convince voters that Party C represents their true values, but also that letting in one of A or B would not be a disaster. It's a tricky thing to pull off, as if voters decide that e.g. Party B is not merely "not a disaster" but actually quite a good fit the of course they are likely to vote for them directly. This, incidentally, is one of the reasons I don't share your reverence for a two party system, which rewards being the lesser of two evils at the expense of actively winning over the electorate.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 21, 2017 19:41:58 GMT
Thanks for posting those, thetop . Another question that Ipsos-MORI asked in this poll was about how people viewed the two main parties and their leaders. I was very surprised to discover that whilst 40% of respondents were intending to vote for the Conservative Party, only 38% actually liked the Conservative Party. I found that a very interesting finding - it's probably happened before but it does seem, at least at first sight, counter-intuitive that more people are planning to vote for a party than actually like the party. Surely that is normally the case? As many people vote to block a party they dislike even more than the one that they do support. You don't have to like a party to support it. There is nothing irrational or counter intuitive about it.
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 22, 2017 15:03:16 GMT
Thanks for posting those, thetop . Another question that Ipsos-MORI asked in this poll was about how people viewed the two main parties and their leaders. I was very surprised to discover that whilst 40% of respondents were intending to vote for the Conservative Party, only 38% actually liked the Conservative Party. I found that a very interesting finding - it's probably happened before but it does seem, at least at first sight, counter-intuitive that more people are planning to vote for a party than actually like the party. But that's the inevitable outcome of a two-party system. If there are only two parties then there will be a substantial portion of the electorate who vote for the party they consider the lesser of two evils. Because, even when the system is working well, they won't have any options that are relatively close to their political position.
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Dec 1, 2017 18:45:45 GMT
Britain Elects has tweeted the latest poll Lab 39 -1 Con 37 -1 Lib Dems 9 - Green 4 +1 UKIP 4 - Fieldwork 24th-28th November Time to chill the champagne maybe, or the Ginger Beer
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 1, 2017 18:52:00 GMT
Britain Elects has tweeted the latest poll Lab 39 -1 Con 37 -1 Lib Dems 9 - Green 4 +1 UKIP 4 - Fieldwork 24th-28th November Time to chill the champagne maybe, or the Ginger Beer Lib dems (-1) ?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2017 18:59:16 GMT
Had a quick sift through the tables. One figure that stood out to me was support for the Government among Conservatives is down from net +30 to -4!
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