The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2017 14:13:41 GMT
Could we be seeing (or not seeing, as the case may be) the effects of "ashamed Labour" voters in the opinion polls. These "ashamed Labour" electors will in an election actually turn out and vote Labour even if they are too ashamed or embarrassed to say so to pollsters because of Corbyn? It's certainly possible and seems to have occurred in 1983 and 2010. But who knows. 1983 certainly saw a significant *over*statement (that emphasis is for Rob Ford, if nobody else) of the Tory position. Some polls towards the end of the campaign *under*stated Labour, too - though if we have a campaign as bad as that one this time round "shy Labour" voters might be the least of our worries
|
|
|
Post by casualobserver on Apr 26, 2017 14:16:43 GMT
the (unrealistically?) huge Tory lead Every poll's a rogue poll and an outlier, hey, Bish?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2017 14:19:11 GMT
Well, that is one way to respond to my IMHO not terribly unreasonable comment I suppose.
My hunch *is*, nonetheless, that pollsters are slightly over-egging the Tory strength at present.
Next week may provide more clues on that score.
|
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,166
Member is Online
|
Post by Jack on Apr 26, 2017 14:31:17 GMT
To be fair, this is the first real test for the pollsters after the 2015 catastrophe.
We know that they overstated Labour support in 2015, but in changes to their methodology and weighting since then, it remains to be seen whether they've gone too far the other way and are overstating Conservative support.
Though the lead is still massive even if they are slightly overstating.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2017 16:55:14 GMT
Obviously the (unrealistically?) huge Tory lead will be what most focus on - but that UKIP figure is still astounding. I see that no Green figure is cited - but could they move into 4th in at least some polls soon? It's UKIP's lowest score since 2012, I believe. Both UKIP and the Greens will get a lower share than polls are suggesting because they're standing aside in several constituencies for various reasons.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 26, 2017 17:11:39 GMT
Could we be seeing (or not seeing, as the case may be) the effects of "ashamed Labour" voters in the opinion polls. These "ashamed Labour" electors will in an election actually turn out and vote Labour even if they are too ashamed or embarrassed to say so to pollsters because of Corbyn? It's certainly possible and seems to have occurred in 1983 and 2010. But who knows. And let's not forget all those non-voters, weighted down by the evil Tory pollsters, who will flood out this time inspired by JC.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 26, 2017 17:14:52 GMT
UKIP in 5th would be gratifying personally.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2017 17:48:43 GMT
It's certainly possible and seems to have occurred in 1983 and 2010. But who knows. And let's not forget all those non-voters, weighted down by the evil Tory pollsters, who will flood out this time inspired by JC. Let's say that the polls are right, and Labour are massacred. Will it be because they didn't go left-wing enough or will that myth get put to bed at last?
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2017 17:50:59 GMT
Whilst I'm also suspicious of these figures, that head-to-head between May and Corbyn is shocking.
|
|
|
Post by Strontium Dog on Apr 26, 2017 17:55:16 GMT
Let's say that the polls are right, and Labour are massacred. Will it be because they didn't go left-wing enough or will that myth get put to bed at last? A new myth of anti-Corbyn media bias is already coalescing.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2017 17:58:29 GMT
Whatever else you say, that the media is - generally speaking - anti-Corbyn is hardly a "myth".
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2017 18:05:33 GMT
The media are always particularly hard on struggling Leaders of the Opposition of both parties - Foot, Kinnock, Hague, IDS.
|
|
|
Post by Strontium Dog on Apr 26, 2017 19:23:20 GMT
Whatever else you say, that the media is - generally speaking - anti-Corbyn is hardly a "myth". But the idea that there's some kind of conspiracy, with the BBC at the heart of it? I think that's reaching, personally.
|
|
|
Post by dizz on Apr 26, 2017 19:49:42 GMT
Whilst I'm also suspicious of these figures, that head-to-head between May and Corbyn is shocking. I don't find it shocking though no doubt some is down to TM honeymoon.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,369
|
Post by Sibboleth on Apr 26, 2017 21:08:30 GMT
But the idea that there's some kind of conspiracy, with the BBC at the heart of it? I think that's reaching, personally. Typical of the collective madness that has overwhelmed politics left, right and centre in recent years. In this instance, as is often so, there's a kernel of truth which makes it all the more intense.
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Apr 26, 2017 23:13:46 GMT
And let's not forget all those non-voters, weighted down by the evil Tory pollsters, who will flood out this time inspired by JC. Let's say that the polls are right, and Labour are massacred. Will it be because they didn't go left-wing enough or will that myth get put to bed at last? Corbyn's policies are polling well. It's a combination of his failings as a leader and his party being in a state of civil war that's done for their poll ratings.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 27, 2017 6:38:20 GMT
Let's say that the polls are right, and Labour are massacred. Will it be because they didn't go left-wing enough or will that myth get put to bed at last? Corbyn's policies are polling well. It's a combination of his failings as a leader and his party being in a state of civil war that's done for their poll ratings. That won't wash if Labour voters go to the Tories, though.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 27, 2017 6:50:33 GMT
The other thing, GC, is that the polling (presumably the ComRes one?) asks about a smaller number of newly-stated policies.
I imagine that Corbyn's unpopularity steps in part from his dubious foreign policies and general love of identity politics.
You can't separate the policies from the people peddling them. Another Corboid like McDonnell is likely to hit the same.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 27, 2017 8:28:00 GMT
The other thing, GC, is that the polling (presumably the ComRes one?) asks about a smaller number of newly-stated policies. I imagine that Corbyn's unpopularity steps in part from his dubious foreign policies and general love of identity politics. You can't separate the policies from the people peddling them. Another Corboid like McDonnell is likely to hit the same. The psephological importance of policy is overrated by us political nerds. Joe Public has neither the time nor inclination to pore over pages of policy details and knows full well that on many areas he hasn't the expertise to analyse them anyway. One or two flagship policies - tax cuts, more defence or health spending, Brexit etc - will grab attention but no more than that. Furthermore, we aren't choosing a set of programmes that will be implemented like clockwork over the next 5 years, we're voting for representatives who will have to respond to events and manage processes; character, competence and values as predictors of how they'll do it are at least as important as policy. You also have to consider priorities. Firstly, it is perfectly rational to agree 100% with JC on, say, rail nationalisation or student nurse bursaries, but still vote Tory if your priority is the economy and you think they are stronger on that. Secondly, for as long as I can remember basic perceptions of the two big parties on the big policy areas haven't changed that much. People expect Labour to put more money into public services, they expect the Tories to tax less and be stronger on defence and on defending the national interest in foreign policy. On other areas favourability depends on basic outlook - people expect the Tories to be tougher on benefit claimants and more traditional on education, and you either like or dislike that depending on your sympathy with benefit claimants and traditional education. Every now and again a really good leader manages to shift the party image a bit - half of Blair's success (which his left-wing critics simply fail to consider, let alone match) was not by turning Labour into "Tory-lite" but in convincing voters that he would be at least no less competent on the economy and crime as the Tories; similarly Cameron did the Tories a massive service by convincing voters that he was not ideologically hostile or luke-warm about the NHS. But the other part of Blair's electoral success was in getting concern about the state of public services (Labour strong) to be seen as a higher priority than low tax (Labour weak). The last time I recall Labour having a good story was Milliband on the cost-of-living problem, and significantly I don't think anyone was lauding Labour's policies, but they did notice that Labour seemed to care about something that was affecting voters when the Tories were busy trying to pretend it wasn't happening. Corbyn fails on just about all of these. He doesn't come over as competent, he drastically fails to de-weaponise the "weak on defending the national interest" image of Labour, or indeed the fiscally reckless image which (rather unfairly) has stuck back onto Labour; and he has failed to get strong Labour issues such as funding of schools, social care and health up the public agenda ahead of Brexit and fiscal prudence in tricky times (both strong Tory areas) - even though there are real problems on schools etc which I expect to be a slow burning problem for the government. He does have a story to tell on values but the trouble is that it comes over as vaguely well-meaning rather than as a set of things he is going to get fixed. That is the one area where I think a flagship policy that was easy to understand and which seemed to have a practical edge to it would make a big difference, not only in being popular in itself but as a symbol for his values and as evidence of competence. But I honestly don't know what Corbyn's flagship policy is after 18 months in office.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 27, 2017 9:39:54 GMT
The other thing, GC, is that the polling (presumably the ComRes one?) asks about a smaller number of newly-stated policies. I imagine that Corbyn's unpopularity steps in part from his dubious foreign policies and general love of identity politics. You can't separate the policies from the people peddling them. Another Corboid like McDonnell is likely to hit the same. The psephological importance of policy is overrated by us political nerds. Joe Public has neither the time nor inclination to pore over pages of policy details and knows full well that on many areas he hasn't the expertise to analyse them anyway. One or two flagship policies - tax cuts, more defence or health spending, Brexit etc - will grab attention but no more than that. Furthermore, we aren't choosing a set of programmes that will be implemented like clockwork over the next 5 years, we're voting for representatives who will have to respond to events and manage processes; character, competence and values as predictors of how they'll do it are at least as important as policy. You also have to consider priorities. Firstly, it is perfectly rational to agree 100% with JC on, say, rail nationalisation or student nurse bursaries, but still vote Tory if your priority is the economy and you think they are stronger on that. Secondly, for as long as I can remember basic perceptions of the two big parties on the big policy areas haven't changed that much. People expect Labour to put more money into public services, they expect the Tories to tax less and be stronger on defence and on defending the national interest in foreign policy. On other areas favourability depends on basic outlook - people expect the Tories to be tougher on benefit claimants and more traditional on education, and you either like or dislike that depending on your sympathy with benefit claimants and traditional education. Every now and again a really good leader manages to shift the party image a bit - half of Blair's success (which his left-wing critics simply fail to consider, let alone match) was not by turning Labour into "Tory-lite" but in convincing voters that he would be at least no less competent on the economy and crime as the Tories; similarly Cameron did the Tories a massive service by convincing voters that he was not ideologically hostile or luke-warm about the NHS. But the other part of Blair's electoral success was in getting concern about the state of public services (Labour strong) to be seen as a higher priority than low tax (Labour weak). The last time I recall Labour having a good story was Milliband on the cost-of-living problem, and significantly I don't think anyone was lauding Labour's policies, but they did notice that Labour seemed to care about something that was affecting voters when the Tories were busy trying to pretend it wasn't happening. Corbyn fails on just about all of these. He doesn't come over as competent, he drastically fails to de-weaponise the "weak on defending the national interest" image of Labour, or indeed the fiscally reckless image which (rather unfairly) has stuck back onto Labour; and he has failed to get strong Labour issues such as funding of schools, social care and health up the public agenda ahead of Brexit and fiscal prudence in tricky times (both strong Tory areas) - even though there are real problems on schools etc which I expect to be a slow burning problem for the government. He does have a story to tell on values but the trouble is that it comes over as vaguely well-meaning rather than as a set of things he is going to get fixed. That is the one area where I think a flagship policy that was easy to understand and which seemed to have a practical edge to it would make a big difference, not only in being popular in itself but as a symbol for his values and as evidence of competence. But I honestly don't know what Corbyn's flagship policy is after 18 months in office. Quoted to emphasise my use of the Like button, and to make the observation that people will generally express approval of "doing good things" in isolation. Whether they are willing to support the quid pro quo of paying for them ... Many years ago I was driving from Mousehole to Penzance listening to R4. The subject was the dearth of science on R4. Interesting fact - in polls 80% said there should be more coverage of science, 70% said they would listen ... and when science programmes were broadcast the ratings bombed. Ex-councillors like myself might call it the Bus Survey Paradox - you run a survey for a better bus service - massive support. You get a bus service provided - nobody uses it (they've always got a reason/explanation/excuse). And then they complain about the Council wasting money running empty buses.
|
|