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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 30, 2019 17:51:01 GMT
We had a second referendum on part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 - which gave a near 2/3 vote in favour of full legislative powers under the 20 subject headings in the 2006 act. So you could say that the settled will is in favour of the National Assembly. I must complete the work on if Wales had voted in favour in the first referendum.... In many ways the proposed Scottish Assembly was closer to the National Assembly after the 2006 GoWales Act, in that it passed measures rather than acts and it needed approval by the Queen in Council. Settled will of the 35% who turned out in the 2011 referendum. Regrettably most people don’t give to figs about the place. (Don’t vote, don’t get a say/opinion I know).
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 30, 2019 19:17:10 GMT
I'll close the poll in a couple of hours to move this on. 👍
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 30, 2019 19:26:55 GMT
We had a second referendum on part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 - which gave a near 2/3 vote in favour of full legislative powers under the 20 subject headings in the 2006 act. So you could say that the settled will is in favour of the National Assembly. I must complete the work on if Wales had voted in favour in the first referendum.... In many ways the proposed Scottish Assembly was closer to the National Assembly after the 2006 GoWales Act, in that it passed measures rather than acts and it needed approval by the Queen in Council. Settled will of the 35% who turned out in the 2011 referendum. Regrettably most people don’t give to figs about the place. (Don’t vote, don’t get a say/opinion I know). This is one of the things I'm disappointed about. I think a large part of the problem is that too many people don't know where the division of powers lie in regards to devolution in Wales. I've heard stories of people voting Labour in 2017 in Wales because of their negative views on how the NHS was being run, despite it being Labour that have operational control of the Welsh NHS; they believed it was the Conservatives in Westminster who controlled the NHS in Wales.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 30, 2019 21:51:28 GMT
Settled will of the 35% who turned out in the 2011 referendum. Regrettably most people don’t give to figs about the place. (Don’t vote, don’t get a say/opinion I know). This is one of the things I'm disappointed about. I think a large part of the problem is that too many people don't know where the division of powers lie in regards to devolution in Wales. I've heard stories of people voting Labour in 2017 in Wales because of their negative views on how the NHS was being run, despite it being Labour that have operational control of the Welsh NHS; they believed it was the Conservatives in Westminster who controlled the NHS in Wales. 100% believable. When Labour return to power in Westminster they could find themselves suffering at the ballot box in Welsh elections.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 30, 2019 22:32:04 GMT
Settled will of the 35% who turned out in the 2011 referendum. Regrettably most people don’t give to figs about the place. (Don’t vote, don’t get a say/opinion I know). This is one of the things I'm disappointed about. I think a large part of the problem is that too many people don't know where the division of powers lie in regards to devolution in Wales. I've heard stories of people voting Labour in 2017 in Wales because of their negative views on how the NHS was being run, despite it being Labour that have operational control of the Welsh NHS; they believed it was the Conservatives in Westminster who controlled the NHS in Wales. A large part of this is because Wales doesn't have its own separate media in the way that Scotland does (the only difference between Wales and the English regions in terms of media being S4C). Even those who might care about the difference have to make an effort to find out these things.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 31, 2019 14:05:48 GMT
This is one of the things I'm disappointed about. I think a large part of the problem is that too many people don't know where the division of powers lie in regards to devolution in Wales. I've heard stories of people voting Labour in 2017 in Wales because of their negative views on how the NHS was being run, despite it being Labour that have operational control of the Welsh NHS; they believed it was the Conservatives in Westminster who controlled the NHS in Wales. A large part of this is because Wales doesn't have its own separate media in the way that Scotland does (the only difference between Wales and the English regions in terms of media being S4C). Even those who might care about the difference have to make an effort to find out these things. Even in Scotland, there are large amounts of people that don't know what is devolved and what isn't. In May 2014, 39% of Scots thought the NHS was controlled by Westminster (compared to 47% who though Holyrood). Things may have changed since then, especially in the closing weeks of the independence referendum, but it's a surprisingly huge number considering that the poll was taken fifteen years into devolution.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Mar 31, 2019 16:29:02 GMT
This is one of the things I'm disappointed about. I think a large part of the problem is that too many people don't know where the division of powers lie in regards to devolution in Wales. I've heard stories of people voting Labour in 2017 in Wales because of their negative views on how the NHS was being run, despite it being Labour that have operational control of the Welsh NHS; they believed it was the Conservatives in Westminster who controlled the NHS in Wales. A large part of this is because Wales doesn't have its own separate media in the way that Scotland does (the only difference between Wales and the English regions in terms of media being S4C). Even those who might care about the difference have to make an effort to find out these things. For a brief time we had the Welsh Mirror, but at the Plaid vote went down so the need for the paper went. Yes print media is an issue, and with UK wide Radio refusing Welsh news opt outs and the fragmentation of broadcast media Wales tends to be a non story for most of the media.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 31, 2019 19:29:22 GMT
Election results show unclear picture for government formationLabour were the largest party in the 1983 Scottish election, despite the Conservatives winning the largest share of the votes. Labour's strength in the central belt saw them win thirty-four seats, seven lower than in the June general election. The Conservatives managed two better than in June with twenty-three, while the Alliance finished on ten seats, despite 26% of the vote. The SNP saw a slight recovery, winning five seats. - Lab - 27.0% (-8.2 on June 1983) - 34 seats
- Con - 30.1% (+1.6) - 21 seats
- All - 26.1% (+1.5) - 10 seats
- SNP - 16.8% (+5.0) - 5 seats
The question that remains unresolved is: who will form the executive? Three real options have emerged: a Labour minority government, a Labour-Alliance coalition, or a Conservative-Alliance minority coalition. It's unknown what government the SNP would prefer; their support may be required for any minority to be stable. Rumours suggest the party will put the matter to a members vote, should Labour-Alliance coalition talks break down.
Constituency mapFor full size constituency map, see: Attachment DeletedDiscrepancies between the shown percentages and the actual percentages are down to seat calculations, which affect the overall percentages slightly. (Votes: Conservatives 7, Labour 6, Alliance 6, SNP 5)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2019 10:45:38 GMT
Election results show unclear picture for government formationLabour were the largest party in the 1983 Scottish election, despite the Conservatives winning the largest share of the votes. Labour's strength in the central belt saw them win thirty-four seats, seven lower than in the June general election. The Conservatives managed two better than in June with twenty-three, while the Alliance finished on ten seats, despite 26% of the vote. The SNP saw a slight recovery, winning five seats. - Lab - 27.0% (-8.2 on June 1983) - 34 seats
- Con - 30.1% (+1.6) - 21 seats
- All - 26.1% (+1.5) - 10 seats
- SNP - 16.8% (+5.0) - 5 seats
The question that remains unresolved is: who will form the executive? Three real options have emerged: a Labour minority government, a Labour-Alliance coalition, or a Conservative-Alliance minority coalition. It's unknown what government the SNP would prefer; their support may be required for any minority to be stable. Rumours suggest the party will put the matter to a members vote, should Labour-Alliance coalition talks break down.
Constituency mapFor full size constituency map, see: Discrepancies between the shown percentages and the actual percentages are down to seat calculations, which affect the overall percentages slightly. (Votes: Conservatives 7, Labour 6, Alliance 6, SNP 5) Would the Alliance win Glasgow Hillhead without Roy Jenkins? I would have it as a three way toss up. East Angus, Moray, Banff & Buchan, Gordon, and Ross, Cromarty and Skye would be toss ups too. Caithness & Sutherland is anyone’s guess.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 1, 2019 10:58:50 GMT
When was this hypothetical election actually held?
Labour had a significant poll bounce in October 1983 following Kinnock's election, so I doubt their results would have been anything like as poor as that from then on.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 1, 2019 11:15:36 GMT
I puzzled over this question a little while too. I think it is based on the results of the poll at the top of the thread?
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 1, 2019 11:19:53 GMT
I puzzled over this question a little while too. I think it is based on the results of the poll at the top of the thread? Well this is a game, and whole point of the poll is intended to determine the outcome of the next "move".
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 1, 2019 20:23:00 GMT
When was this hypothetical election actually held? Labour had a significant poll bounce in October 1983 following Kinnock's election, so I doubt their results would have been anything like as poor as that from then on. It's based on the poll on the top of the thread - so it doesn't take into account polling results. Although the election, for the purposes of the question, was in September 1983, prior to Kinnock's election.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Apr 1, 2019 21:05:13 GMT
Or indeed to the SNP bringing the election about by supporting the Tories in the no confidence vote. Well the SNP were very half hearted in support of the Assembly throughout. The SNP leadership were not the pragmatists that we are used to these days. Many were Gordon Wilson and Donald Stewart style traditionalists and fundamentalists who saw a devolved assembly as a cop-out. I suspect that the outcome suited them fine. The Assembly voted down despite winning the vote, a Tory Government on the way to stir up discontent about.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 1, 2019 21:18:19 GMT
Election results show unclear picture for government formationLabour were the largest party in the 1983 Scottish election, despite the Conservatives winning the largest share of the votes. Labour's strength in the central belt saw them win thirty-four seats, seven lower than in the June general election. The Conservatives managed two better than in June with twenty-three, while the Alliance finished on ten seats, despite 26% of the vote. The SNP saw a slight recovery, winning five seats. - Lab - 27.0% (-8.2 on June 1983) - 34 seats
- Con - 30.1% (+1.6) - 21 seats
- All - 26.1% (+1.5) - 10 seats
- SNP - 16.8% (+5.0) - 5 seats
The question that remains unresolved is: who will form the executive? Three real options have emerged: a Labour minority government, a Labour-Alliance coalition, or a Conservative-Alliance minority coalition. It's unknown what government the SNP would prefer; their support may be required for any minority to be stable. Rumours suggest the party will put the matter to a members vote, should Labour-Alliance coalition talks break down.
Constituency mapFor full size constituency map, see: Discrepancies between the shown percentages and the actual percentages are down to seat calculations, which affect the overall percentages slightly. (Votes: Conservatives 7, Labour 6, Alliance 6, SNP 5) Would the Alliance win Glasgow Hillhead without Roy Jenkins? I would have it as a three way toss up. East Angus, Moray, Banff & Buchan, Gordon, and Ross, Cromarty and Skye would be toss ups too. Caithness & Sutherland is anyone’s guess. I didn't pay much attention to the local MP when calculating constituency results, as there is some sort of incumbency effect in most seats, but as you say some seats would have more of an affect than others - where the candidates would be more important that the parties. The method I used was the reduce a party's constituency share by their relative national reduction (ie. for Labour, their vote share was down by 74% compared to the 1983 GE), with the remainder being distributed to the gaining parties by the same method. I'm trying to think of a way to compare how people voted in the previous poll to the next poll, to see how people's votes are changing - ie. if Labour are down and Alliance are up, is it direct or is it because Labour voters are moving to the Conservatives and the Conservatives are moving to Alliance? On the specific seats asked about, the three SNP gains had majorities of 5-11%. Gordon was Alliance by 1.5%, Ross, Cromarty and Skye by 4.5% and Caithness and Sutherland was very strong majority for Alliance. Hillhead was a Alliance majority of 14%, with Labour third - which is probably the most 'unrealistic' constituency result.
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Post by polaris on Apr 9, 2019 19:44:12 GMT
I wonder if, had a Scottish Assembly been formed in 1979, they would have continued to elect by FPTP, or if they would have switched to PR at some point over the following 20-30 years?
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 10, 2019 1:27:37 GMT
I wonder if, had a Scottish Assembly been formed in 1979, they would have continued to elect by FPTP, or if they would have switched to PR at some point over the following 20-30 years? That would not have been for the Assembly to decide.
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