|
Post by matureleft on Jul 31, 2019 12:40:37 GMT
As I remarked earlier I think the Tories have already decided that the seat is almost certainly lost. Johnson's escape on this would be that he was only elected about a week before the polls, too late to affect the outcome, and that the "particular circumstances" of the by-election favoured opposition parties. They'll want to keep the result as tight as possible though.
The tenor of the publicity on Johnson's visit to Wales, around Welsh lamb and a no-deal Brexit, won't have helped in a constituency where sheep farming is both pretty important and a topic in the small, very stable communities that are all this seat has.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 13:09:59 GMT
Tory Hold down to 9/1 on Bet Fair
|
|
|
Post by BucksDucks on Jul 31, 2019 13:38:34 GMT
Timings just did not work for us here, and standing by the former MP was a serious mistake. Or knowing the timings and circumstances were against them anyway it was convenient to have a scapegoat on hand.
|
|
|
Post by lbarnes on Jul 31, 2019 13:39:40 GMT
As I remarked earlier I think the Tories have already decided that the seat is almost certainly lost. Johnson's escape on this would be that he was only elected about a week before the polls, too late to affect the outcome, and that the "particular circumstances" of the by-election favoured opposition parties. They'll want to keep the result as tight as possible though. The tenor of the publicity on Johnson's visit to Wales, around Welsh lamb and a no-deal Brexit, won't have helped in a constituency where sheep farming is both pretty important and a topic in the small, very stable communities that are all this seat has. If we had effected the change from May to Johnson, say 6-weeks ago, and we had changed the candidate to a popular young local with a nice personality, and supported the campaign with many visits, a Johnson tour, an full HQ support, then there might have been a chance of making a bit of a fight of this? But, putting up the same man, and not effecting the change to Johnson until way after the Postals have been completed at home, really must be seen to be the death knell of any chances. Timings just did not work for us here, and standing by the former MP was a serious mistake. So if only you'd had a different leader earlier, a different candidate and a wholly different campaign with different timings then you might have had a chance of winning. Nothing to do with the party then?
|
|
middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
|
Post by middyman on Jul 31, 2019 13:43:29 GMT
As I remarked earlier I think the Tories have already decided that the seat is almost certainly lost. Johnson's escape on this would be that he was only elected about a week before the polls, too late to affect the outcome, and that the "particular circumstances" of the by-election favoured opposition parties. They'll want to keep the result as tight as possible though. The tenor of the publicity on Johnson's visit to Wales, around Welsh lamb and a no-deal Brexit, won't have helped in a constituency where sheep farming is both pretty important and a topic in the small, very stable communities that are all this seat has. Is this not in the constituency? www.bmr.wales
|
|
|
Post by lbarnes on Jul 31, 2019 14:02:48 GMT
So if only you'd had a different leader earlier, a different candidate and a wholly different campaign with different timings then you might have had a chance of winning. Nothing to do with the party then? We just can't win can we? Not with you. I make a complete admission of having got it completely wrong and thus we cannot expect to be even close to winning, and I add a few of the reasons and a few suggestions on how it might have been better approached. And still you stoop to derision and sarcasm. Derision but not sarcasm. You seem to be getting your excuses in early by blaming everything but the party message.
|
|
Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726
|
Post by Adrian on Jul 31, 2019 14:13:40 GMT
As I remarked earlier I think the Tories have already decided that the seat is almost certainly lost. Johnson's escape on this would be that he was only elected about a week before the polls, too late to affect the outcome, and that the "particular circumstances" of the by-election favoured opposition parties. They'll want to keep the result as tight as possible though. The tenor of the publicity on Johnson's visit to Wales, around Welsh lamb and a no-deal Brexit, won't have helped in a constituency where sheep farming is both pretty important and a topic in the small, very stable communities that are all this seat has. If we had effected the change from May to Johnson, say 6-weeks ago, and we had changed the candidate to a popular young local with a nice personality, and supported the campaign with many visits, a Johnson tour, an full HQ support, then there might have been a chance of making a bit of a fight of this? But, putting up the same man, and not effecting the change to Johnson until way after the Postals have been completed at home, really must be seen to be the death knell of any chances. Timings just did not work for us here, and standing by the former MP was a serious mistake. My assumption was that the Tories gave this by-election up from the outset. The selection of the candidate was with a view to his winning the seat back at the next general election.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 31, 2019 14:16:47 GMT
If we had effected the change from May to Johnson, say 6-weeks ago, and we had changed the candidate to a popular young local with a nice personality, and supported the campaign with many visits, a Johnson tour, an full HQ support, then there might have been a chance of making a bit of a fight of this? But, putting up the same man, and not effecting the change to Johnson until way after the Postals have been completed at home, really must be seen to be the death knell of any chances. Timings just did not work for us here, and standing by the former MP was a serious mistake. My assumption was that the Tories gave this by-election up from the outset. The selection of the candidate was with a view to his winning the seat back at the next general election. I think that's a correct analysis. Depending on when the next election is, of course.
|
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 27,849
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Jul 31, 2019 14:48:24 GMT
When was the last time there was a turnout of more than 60% at a Westminster by-election? There must be a good chance of that tomorrow. The turnout at the 1985 by-election was 79.4% which was only slightly down on the 80.1% turnout at the 1983 general election. In fact the total number of votes cast was up slightly from 37,870 to 38,412. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Brecon_and_Radnor_by-election
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2019 14:50:16 GMT
When was the last time there was a turnout of more than 60% at a Westminster by-election? There must be a good chance of that tomorrow. The turnout at the 1985 by-election was 79.4% which was only slightly down on the 80.1% turnout at the 1983 general election. In fact the total number of votes cast was up slightly from 37,870 to 38,412. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Brecon_and_Radnor_by-electionThe odds on that are 10/1 on Ladbrokes at the moment
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,140
Member is Online
|
Post by cogload on Jul 31, 2019 15:01:28 GMT
The betting exchanges and Steve Hawkes are ramping up a Tory hold.
|
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 27,849
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Jul 31, 2019 15:02:06 GMT
When was the last time there was a turnout of more than 60% at a Westminster by-election? There must be a good chance of that tomorrow. The turnout at the 1985 by-election was 79.4% which was only slightly down on the 80.1% turnout at the 1983 general election. In fact the total number of votes cast was up slightly from 37,870 to 38,412. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Brecon_and_Radnor_by-electionThe odds on that are 10/1 on Ladbrokes at the moment Thanks for the tip.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2019 15:32:28 GMT
It's now down to 6/1. I got a small bet on at 10/1 - only worthwhile bet going I reckon. I'd go for the Tories if they were still at the 8/1 I could've got yesterday but now down to 5/1
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 31, 2019 15:40:57 GMT
As I remarked earlier I think the Tories have already decided that the seat is almost certainly lost. Johnson's escape on this would be that he was only elected about a week before the polls, too late to affect the outcome, and that the "particular circumstances" of the by-election favoured opposition parties. They'll want to keep the result as tight as possible though. The tenor of the publicity on Johnson's visit to Wales, around Welsh lamb and a no-deal Brexit, won't have helped in a constituency where sheep farming is both pretty important and a topic in the small, very stable communities that are all this seat has. If we had effected the change from May to Johnson, say 6-weeks ago, and we had changed the candidate to a popular young local with a nice personality, and supported the campaign with many visits, a Johnson tour, an full HQ support, then there might have been a chance of making a bit of a fight of this? But, putting up the same man, and not effecting the change to Johnson until way after the Postals have been completed at home, really must be seen to be the death knell of any chances. Timings just did not work for us here, and standing by the former MP was a serious mistake. You are making the assumption that such a person exists within the Conservative Party (indeed, you could be accused of begging the question) and that such a person would garner more votes than the current candidate who is steeped in the local community.
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Jul 31, 2019 15:49:56 GMT
I am surprised the Tories moved the writ at all. The by election could reasonably have been delayed until the Autumn - by which time it might well be overtaken by a general election.
|
|
|
Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 31, 2019 15:59:10 GMT
If I had got odds of 20/1 or more on the exchanges I'd be tempted to cash out and take the beer and curry money. Rather than risk losing a decent little wedge.
On the one hand, you would reasonably expect the Tories to have taken a kicking on the postals but lots of them are elderly... not necessarily of a remain persuasion, perhaps inclined to hold their nose and vote Tory.
Or take a view that they knew May was going three weeks before the writ was moved and likely to be replaced by Boris (or at the very least, someone less worse than May herself) and vote Tory.
They did much better than most people could have reasonably predicted in Peterborough... Lib Dems are a single issue party nationally right now...
On the face of it a hold would appear to be a significant upset, but who knows what will happen on the day?
If they get the GOTV right, could happen.
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 31, 2019 16:14:28 GMT
When was the last time there was a turnout of more than 60% at a Westminster by-election? There must be a good chance of that tomorrow. The turnout at the 1985 by-election was 79.4% which was only slightly down on the 80.1% turnout at the 1983 general election. In fact the total number of votes cast was up slightly from 37,870 to 38,412. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Brecon_and_Radnor_by-electionWinchester ('97) - 68.7% Wirral South ('97) - 71.5% Quite a few of the 1992-1997 by elections were in the high 50s/low 60s too
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Jul 31, 2019 16:16:20 GMT
Why would the Tories poll a higher vote share here tomorrow than in the 1985 by election?
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 31, 2019 18:01:07 GMT
Why would the Tories poll a higher vote share here tomorrow than in the 1985 by election? 1. Because the Lib/Lib Dem tradition of Mid Wales has declined? 2. Because demographically the seat is less distinctive than in 1985? 3. Because the issues are different? 4. Because there are different candidates?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 18:23:53 GMT
It’s likely the Tories do better than in 1985 because of Labour’s ineptitude here and the Brexit Party’s weakness
|
|