bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 19, 2019 16:12:12 GMT
Hi,
After a bit of perusing of some of the safest seats in the country, a few of them appear to have actually had a slight swing against Labour in them in 1997 or small reduction in percentage vote (though it was monumental anyway), so wondering if people have any insights into why that might be, local issues, new/unpopular candidates, etc?
Two examples being Manchester Central and Liverpool Riverside which I can't think of why. It is harder to see in other places (e.g. Knowsley) due to boundary changes, but if the reason is 'they were already monumentally safe and couldn't get any safer', that wasn't the case in Bootle where the vote went from 75% to 83%.
I am aware of special cases in Bradford and Bethnal Green due to Conservative candidates being of an ethnic minority common in the area and the Labour candidate not being so, are there any other examples?
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 19, 2019 16:29:35 GMT
In the case of Liverpool Riverside I think boundary changes are the explanation. The Lib Dem seat of Mossley Hill was abolished for the 1997 election and the ensuing re-jig saw the solidly Lib Dem Aigburth ward added to Riverside along with the (at that point in time) solidly Lib Dem ward of Smithdown from the former Broadgreen seat (which was renamed Wavertree obviously)
Given the differential turnout between these new more middle class wards and the lower turnout wards that made up the old seat it would have been enough to seemingly depress Labours vote in the new seat. That's my take anyway.
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Post by BossMan on Jan 19, 2019 16:50:50 GMT
Hi, After a bit of perusing of some of the safest seats in the country, a few of them appear to have actually had a slight swing against Labour in them in 1997 or small reduction in percentage vote (though it was monumental anyway), so wondering if people have any insights into why that might be, local issues, new/unpopular candidates, etc? Two examples being Manchester Central and Liverpool Riverside which I can't think of why. It is harder to see in other places (e.g. Knowsley) due to boundary changes, but if the reason is 'they were already monumentally safe and couldn't get any safer', that wasn't the case in Bootle where the vote went from 75% to 83%. I am aware of special cases in Bradford and Bethnal Green due to Conservative candidates being of an ethnic minority common in the area and the Labour candidate not being so, are there any other examples? There will have been some working class Old Labour voters who were put off by Blair's New Labour brand in some of those northern strongholds. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 19, 2019 16:54:50 GMT
Hi, After a bit of perusing of some of the safest seats in the country, a few of them appear to have actually had a slight swing against Labour in them in 1997 or small reduction in percentage vote (though it was monumental anyway), so wondering if people have any insights into why that might be, local issues, new/unpopular candidates, etc? Two examples being Manchester Central and Liverpool Riverside which I can't think of why. It is harder to see in other places (e.g. Knowsley) due to boundary changes, but if the reason is 'they were already monumentally safe and couldn't get any safer', that wasn't the case in Bootle where the vote went from 75% to 83%. I am aware of special cases in Bradford and Bethnal Green due to Conservative candidates being of an ethnic minority common in the area and the Labour candidate not being so, are there any other examples? There will have been some working class Old Labour voters who were put off by Blair's New Labour brand in some of those northern strongholds. That's what I thought but this doesn't seem to be the case in Bootle, plus in the Wigan suburbs and even Bolsover where majorities have never been matched since. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 19, 2019 17:00:53 GMT
Sheffield Central is another example.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 19, 2019 17:02:51 GMT
There will have been some working class Old Labour voters who were put off by Blair's New Labour brand in some of those northern strongholds. That's what I thought but this doesn't seem to be the case in Bootle, plus in the Wigan suburbs and even Bolsover where majorities have never been matched since. Taking into account the boundary changes and the notional results, the Labour vote was up 2% and there was a swing from Lib Dem to Lab of 3.6% in Liverpool Riverside. In Manchester Central, again compared to the notional result the Labour vote was up 1.8% and there was zero swing there. In Manchester Gorton, again on slightly unreliable notional results there was a very small swing from Lab to Lib Dem. |
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Post by BossMan on Jan 19, 2019 17:27:15 GMT
Comparison with the 1992 notionals did throw up quite a few odd looking changes. The same applied in some of the new seats where the Conservatives underperformed in 1983.
Most of these low swings in safe seats are probably explained simply in that there was much less room for manouevre than in the marginals.
It is worth mentioning seats that don't fall into the Labour stronghold category also.
In 1997 there was a below average swing in Aldridge-Brownhills (a seat which Labour had won in 1974), owing mostly to demographic changes and also (I would like to think) the personal vote of Richard Shepherd.
John Major enjoyed a leader's bonus in Huntingdon, meaning there was only a 6% swing against him.
Lichfield was almost certainly explained by the effect of the Mid Staffs by-election wearing off.
Bromsgrove is another example.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2019 17:32:24 GMT
Bradford West.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 19, 2019 17:33:15 GMT
Comparison with the 1992 notionals did throw up quite a few odd looking changes. The same applied in some of the new seats where the Conservatives underperformed in 1983. Most of these low swings in safe seats are probably explained simply in that there was much less room for manouevre than in the marginals. It is worth mentioning seats that don't fall into the Labour stronghold category also. In 1997 there was a below average swing in Aldridge-Brownhills (a seat which Labour had won in 1974), owing mostly to demographic changes and also (I would like to think) the personal vote of Richard Shepherd. John Major enjoyed a leader's bonus in Huntingdon, meaning there was only a 6% swing against him. Lichfield was almost certainly explained by the effect of the Mid Staffs by-election wearing off. Bromsgrove is another example. I think Aldridge Brownhills and Bromsgrove were 2 of the ‘least bad’ Conservative performances in that election. Labour would be pleased to get within 10000 of either now. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 19, 2019 17:35:26 GMT
Notional results are not an issue in Manchester Gorton where there were no boundary changes worth mentioning
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 19, 2019 17:58:06 GMT
Notional results are not an issue in Manchester Gorton where there were no boundary changes worth mentioning Kaufman got even more votes in '97 on a lower turnout and a larger majority and % vote, which surely takes it out of this category. Lichfield - reducing the majority to 200 was still pretty impressive, almost as impressive as how the incumbent now enjoys one of just under 20,000. Ken Clarke certainly didn't enjoy an (almost) leader bonus as his majority was reduced to a quarter of what it was. Incidentally it currently stands at only slightly more than that. Quite interesting similarities in terms of 2017 majority reductions with Skinner in Bolsover, despite both having the same Brexit views as their electorate. Sell-by dates coming to mind to their electorate, over experience? |
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 19, 2019 18:22:12 GMT
Notional results are not an issue in Manchester Gorton where there were no boundary changes worth mentioning Kaufman got even more votes in '97 on a lower turnout and a larger majority and % vote, which surely takes it out of this category. Lichfield - reducing the majority to 200 was still pretty impressive, almost as impressive as how the incumbent now enjoys one of just under 20,000. Ken Clarke certainly didn't enjoy an (almost) leader bonus as his majority was reduced to a quarter of what it was. Incidentally it currently stands at only slightly more than that. Quite interesting similarities in terms of 2017 majority reductions with Skinner in Bolsover, despite both having the same Brexit views as their electorate. Sell-by dates coming to mind to their electorate, over experience? Straying slightly off topic but I actually think Skinner and Clarke are two of the few MP's that have anything in the way of a personal vote and I believe both seats will become very vulnerable to the challengers when they finally go. Its a simple case of changing demographics and how both parties appeal to those demographics.
In Bolsover the "red till I'm dead vote" is dying off and as the mines fade further into history (and the Labour heritage with it) more of the electorate in that seat will turn to nationalism to solve their problems. Compare with Rushcliffe were the heart of the seat (West Bridgeford) is becoming less and less distinct from Nottingham proper with increasing numbers of both minority voters and students with the shifting voting behaviour that comes with it.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 19, 2019 18:40:20 GMT
Lowest swings in 1997:
1 Tower Hamlets, Bethnal Green and Bow +5.92
2 Bradford, West +5.45
3 Liverpool, Riverside -1.67
4 Gwent, Blaenau Gwent -1.86
5 Mid Glamorgan, Rhondda -1.96
6 Glasgow, Baillieston -2.31
7 Airdrie and Shotts -2.66
8 Motherwell and Wishaw -2.74
9 Glasgow, Maryhill -3.05
10 Lothian, Linlithgow -3.07
11 South Yorkshire, Barnsley East and Mexborough -3.10
12 Glasgow, Kelvin -3.21
13 Mid Glamorgan, Cynon Valley -3.37
14 Gwent, Islwyn -3.42
15 Powys, Brecon and Radnorshire -3.75
16 Mid Glamorgan, Ogmore -3.80
17 Somerset, Taunton -4.08
18 Orkney and Shetland -4.11
19 Dyfed, Llanelli -4.14
20 Harrogate and Knaresborough -4.26
21 Strathclyde, Cumbernauld and Kilsyth -4.58
22 Birmingham, Sparkbrook and Small Heath -4.64
23 Manchester, Central -4.71
24 Dundee, East -4.72
25 Western Isles -4.82
26 Dyfed, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr -4.83
27 Mid Glamorgan, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney -4.89
28 Birmingham, Ladywood -4.90
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 19, 2019 18:41:44 GMT
Comparison with the 1992 notionals did throw up quite a few odd looking changes. The same applied in some of the new seats where the Conservatives underperformed in 1983. Most of these low swings in safe seats are probably explained simply in that there was much less room for manouevre than in the marginals. It is worth mentioning seats that don't fall into the Labour stronghold category also. In 1997 there was a below average swing in Aldridge-Brownhills (a seat which Labour had won in 1974), owing mostly to demographic changes and also (I would like to think) the personal vote of Richard Shepherd. John Major enjoyed a leader's bonus in Huntingdon, meaning there was only a 6% swing against him. Lichfield was almost certainly explained by the effect of the Mid Staffs by-election wearing off. Bromsgrove is another example. I think Aldridge Brownhills and Bromsgrove were 2 of the ‘least bad’ Conservative performances in that election. Labour would be pleased to get within 10000 of either now. I’d add Meriden to the list of seats that Labour probably should have won in 1997 given the national swing especially as there was no Conservative incumbent. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Jan 19, 2019 19:32:56 GMT
Kaufman got even more votes in '97 on a lower turnout and a larger majority and % vote, which surely takes it out of this category. Lichfield - reducing the majority to 200 was still pretty impressive, almost as impressive as how the incumbent now enjoys one of just under 20,000. Ken Clarke certainly didn't enjoy an (almost) leader bonus as his majority was reduced to a quarter of what it was. Incidentally it currently stands at only slightly more than that. Quite interesting similarities in terms of 2017 majority reductions with Skinner in Bolsover, despite both having the same Brexit views as their electorate. Sell-by dates coming to mind to their electorate, over experience? Straying slightly off topic but I actually think Skinner and Clarke are two of the few MP's that have anything in the way of a personal vote and I believe both seats will become very vulnerable to the challengers when they finally go. Its a simple case of changing demographics and how both parties appeal to those demographics.
In Bolsover the "red till I'm dead vote" is dying off and as the mines fade further into history (and the Labour heritage with it) more of the electorate in that seat will turn to nationalism to solve their problems. Compare with Rushcliffe were the heart of the seat (West Bridgeford) is becoming less and less distinct from Nottingham proper with increasing numbers of both minority voters and students with the shifting voting behaviour that comes with it.
Well I think that all hinges on what happens with Brexit really. If we crash out of the EU and the Tories next leader is a European reform group-esque 'nationalist' then yes I imagine they may well be able to win Bolsover at some point. On the other hand if (as I think is more likely) Theresa May either withdraws article 50, calls a second referendum or pushes through some kind of 'soft Brexit' fudge the cries of betrayal will begin in strongly 'nationalist' areas and most of the progress the Tories have made in places like Bolsover will rapidly come undone. You may well see a kind of UKIP mark 2 rise to challenge Labour however. The only other way I could see Bolsover going Tory would be the demographics shifting like they have in North East Derbyshire i.e. it acquiring a substantial middle class, private sector commuter population but this would take many years. I agree about Rushcliffe though, it's a seat Labour will probably win next time they get a majority. Clarke will probably step down at the next election anyway so if even if Labour fail to win outright it's conceivable that they could pick it up. West Bridgeford is indeed becoming more and more left wing. My sister had several friends that lived there whilst she was at Nottingham Trent uni, several being avowed socialists. Thus I don't think even a return to a more 'liberal' conservatism will help the Tories that much in the town either. The rural areas should keep them competitive in the constituency though unless of course the boundaries change unfavourably (i.e by adding Clifton). |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 19, 2019 19:41:18 GMT
Lowest swings in 1997: 1 Tower Hamlets, Bethnal Green and Bow +5.92 2 Bradford, West +5.45 And of course there's something else that those two seats have in common. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 19, 2019 19:56:20 GMT
Lowest swings in 1997: 1 Tower Hamlets, Bethnal Green and Bow +5.92 2 Bradford, West +5.45 And of course there's something else that those two seats have in common. In 1997 they both had a new Labour candidate after the sitting MP stood down, disputes within the local CLP, and the new candidate was from an ethnic group which was not numerous in the constituency. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2019 20:21:31 GMT
Straying slightly off topic but I actually think Skinner and Clarke are two of the few MP's that have anything in the way of a personal vote and I believe both seats will become very vulnerable to the challengers when they finally go. Its a simple case of changing demographics and how both parties appeal to those demographics.
In Bolsover the "red till I'm dead vote" is dying off and as the mines fade further into history (and the Labour heritage with it) more of the electorate in that seat will turn to nationalism to solve their problems. Compare with Rushcliffe were the heart of the seat (West Bridgeford) is becoming less and less distinct from Nottingham proper with increasing numbers of both minority voters and students with the shifting voting behaviour that comes with it.
Well I think that all hinges on what happens with Brexit really. If we crash out of the EU and the Tories next leader is a European reform group-esque 'nationalist' then yes I imagine they may well be able to win Bolsover at some point. On the other hand if (as I think is more likely) Theresa May either withdraws article 50, calls a second referendum or pushes through some kind of 'soft Brexit' fudge the cries of betrayal will begin in strongly 'nationalist' areas and most of the progress the Tories have made in places like Bolsover will rapidly come undone. You may well see a kind of UKIP mark 2 rise to challenge Labour however. The only other way I could see Bolsover going Tory would be the demographics shifting like they have in North East Derbyshire i.e. it acquiring a substantial middle class, private sector commuter population but this would take many years. I agree about Rushcliffe though, it's a seat Labour will probably win next time they get a majority. Clarke will probably step down at the next election anyway so if even if Labour fail to win outright it's conceivable that they could pick it up. West Bridgeford is indeed becoming more and more left wing. My sister had several friends that lived there whilst she was at Nottingham Trent uni, several being avowed socialists. Thus I don't think even a return to a more 'liberal' conservatism will help the Tories that much in the town either. The rural areas should keep them competitive in the constituency though unless of course the boundaries change unfavourably (i.e by adding Clifton). I think that and Altrincham are becoming more marginal and without their incumbents could fall if Labour win a majority of 40+. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 19, 2019 20:26:57 GMT
I’d put Colchester in the same category as a seat that is moving in Labour’s direction having not been competitive for a long time.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 19, 2019 20:32:30 GMT
I’d put Colchester in the same category as a seat that is moving in Labour’s direction having not been competitive for a long time. Southport? Also not off topic either as Labour's '97 underperformance there was exactly for the right reasons i.e. effective tactical voting for the LDs, which arguably didn't happen in other places, their overperformance you could say, denied several LD gains I'm sure. |
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