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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2013 12:04:30 GMT
I think it would provide about the only way for the tories to have a decent recovery in Scotland. I think you underestimate the toxicity of the Tory brand. An anti-independence party of the left would be a much more likely beneficiary, although Labour embracing independence is vanishingly unlikely in any case. I was thinking a 3 or 4 point recovery - nothing drastic.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 7, 2013 12:47:07 GMT
With both the major parties in Scotland behind independence, the electorate will be a lot more easily persuaded of the case. Perhaps inevitably was overstating the case, but it's certainly plausible that somebody who is pro-independence could decide that working to change Labour's policy on the issue is the most effective way of achieving it. except I see no circumstance at all that Labour would ever be persuaded to support independence. So if someone's main political cause is independence the SNP is the party to be in. I didn't say that it was very likely, but it's certainly believable that some people who are pro-independence would stay in Labour to try and make it happen. And yes, of course somebody who is pro-independence as their main political cause is going to be in the SNP. But most people who are pro-independence care about a whole range of other issues either just as much or even more. And this is the sort of person we're talking about.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 8, 2013 17:15:28 GMT
The Tories have no chance of recovery in Scotland. The Conservatives might. I suppose you discount conquest?
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Post by erlend on Dec 8, 2013 18:43:51 GMT
Or immigration.
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Dec 9, 2013 9:23:42 GMT
How many members does Labour for Independence claim. Just thinking of those pictures from the summer where LfI stalls seemed to be being run by known SNP folk. Labour for Independence claim to have about 80 members nationwide, of which they themselves say that just under half are members of the Labour party. However, it should be noted that some of those members were formerly members of the SNP, having resigned their membership of the SNP in order to join the Labour party and then set up Labour for Independence. However their leader, Allan Grogan was a member of the party before setting up Labour for Independence, having joined shortly before the Labour party's defeat in the 2011 Holyrood election. Labour for Independence and their members refuse to campaign for any Labour candidates in by-elections, as they said in a press release at the time of the Dunfermline by-election, when several of their high-profile members were asked when they would be coming to help campaign there. I know of a few Labour members who support (even if weakly) independence, and of course there have been a few local councillors from the 1980s come out in favour of it. It should be noted that none of them will have anything to do with Labour for Independence.
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tim13
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Post by tim13 on Dec 9, 2013 12:17:53 GMT
John r Do you mean formally? Or formerly? Or both?!
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Post by erlend on Dec 9, 2013 13:19:45 GMT
I would guess he means that they formerly were formally SNP members. Probably therefore the 'formally' is de trop.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2013 13:25:29 GMT
I would guess he means that they formerly were formally SNP members. Probably therefore the 'formally' is de trop. 'De trop', you wonderfully old-fashioned chap, Erlend.
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Post by erlend on Dec 9, 2013 13:33:49 GMT
The advantages of an expensive education.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2013 16:35:21 GMT
If I had had an education as good as Erlend's, I would be earning enough money that I could afford to be a Lib Dem. It all depends what you do with it and if money is the object of your 'game'. As I remarked to Kris recently, making money is a particular art and skill which has nothing to do with a career, being employed or doing something you like doing....nor need it be linked to an education. Making money is allied to acquiring property or avoidance of debt.....it is a skill anyone can perfect, but it takes absolute priority and all the time you have plus 100% attention to detail and 'points'. No time-wasting on football, relationships, politics or sites like this. I used to campaign for the Conservatives in the West End of London with an old Tory who when confronted by a champaign socialist always retorted "Lucky man. I have always wanted to be wealthy enough to live in this area and to be able to afford to be socialist."
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Post by BossMan on Dec 11, 2013 9:26:39 GMT
Cllr Dee Hunt (Barking and Dagenham, Mayesbrook) from Labour to UKIP. Means Labour have gone from three councillors here in 2010 to none now. Cllr Ralph Baldwin defected to the Conservatives, while Cllr George Barratt now sits as an independent.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2013 9:54:52 GMT
Cllr Dee Hunt (Barking and Dagenham, Mayesbrook) from Labour to UKIP. Means Labour have gone from three councillors here in 2010 to none now. Cllr Ralph Baldwin defected to the Conservatives, while Cllr George Barratt now sits as an independent. Former BNP stronghold and an area UKIP did quite well in (2006), wonder if they have a shot?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 11, 2013 10:09:59 GMT
Have selections been announced yet in Barking & Dagenham? If not I'd expect more defections to come, given the standard high turnover of councillors in London boroughs and the unexpectedly strong performance in 2010.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2013 11:59:31 GMT
How can one possibly say that the people of Mayesbrook elected a UKIP or, for that matter, Conservative candidate, when they voted in 2010. Luckily, the 6 months rule is in force or I would be fulminating about people making quite striking defections without having the courage of their convictions to stand under their new party banners in a byelection. For me, Ralph Baldwin is a shocking piece of work, suddenly Tory whilst many of his friends believed he was still a left-winger due to his own statements briefly before his defection.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 11, 2013 12:06:32 GMT
Does he still write long rambling screeds peppered with "lol"s to the comments at Labour Unhinged?? Don't visit there anymore myself
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Post by thirdchill on Dec 11, 2013 12:10:58 GMT
The defections sound like councillors defecting before they get deselected.
Labour had 100% of the councillors here in 2010, along with Newham. Suspect labour are more likely to lose councillors in Barking and Dagenham in 2014 than in Newham.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2013 12:22:12 GMT
Does he still write long rambling screeds peppered with "lol"s to the comments at Labour Unhinged?? Don't visit there anymore myself I have never raelly followed that blog, to be honest.
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dazza
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Post by dazza on Dec 11, 2013 17:06:32 GMT
This was predicted, she got deselected.Despite the Labour rulebook they made all Councillors go for interview for the panel.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2013 17:09:38 GMT
and in fact I think in sitting councillors should just to confirm their commitment ...
As for Baldwin, the local Tories should be deeply ashamed to have taken him on, after what he called Tories before his election.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 11, 2013 17:46:27 GMT
How can one possibly say that the people of Mayesbrook elected a UKIP or, for that matter, Conservative candidate, when they voted in 2010. Luckily, the 6 months rule is in force or I would be fulminating about people making quite striking defections without having the courage of their convictions to stand under their new party banners in a byelection. For me, Ralph Baldwin is a shocking piece of work, suddenly Tory whilst many of his friends believed he was still a left-winger due to his own statements briefly before his defection. Yes, this is someone who regularly accused me of being a Blairite compromiser before his miraculous defection. He also said he was going to stand down, but of course didn't
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