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Post by yellowperil on Jan 30, 2020 16:40:49 GMT
I was inclined to think much the same. I have been trying to understand the numbers-did one of the 10 Lib Dems elected in 2019 defect or what , as Bates quoted 9 Lib Dems? Of course they are very inexperienced - I think all were first elected in 2019 except one who had formed a toe hold with a third place in 2015? Bates I think had been around a while as the sole Labourite in an otherwise solidly Tory council, so he will have a pretty jaundiced view of suddenly finding himself surrounded by 9 or 10 Lib Dems. Remembering back a couple of decades, ALDC used to have a booklet called something like "So you won control! Now what?" that was designed for exactly this scenario. If the group were in a strong position they should have been thinking about this really... Perhaps tonyhill or tonygreaves remembers this booklet? I do! Not that we ever needed it
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 30, 2020 17:10:38 GMT
I was inclined to think much the same. I have been trying to understand the numbers-did one of the 10 Lib Dems elected in 2019 defect or what , as Bates quoted 9 Lib Dems? Of course they are very inexperienced - I think all were first elected in 2019 except one who had formed a toe hold with a third place in 2015? Bates I think had been around a while as the sole Labourite in an otherwise solidly Tory council, so he will have a pretty jaundiced view of suddenly finding himself surrounded by 9 or 10 Lib Dems. Especially when those LibDems are elected as an "opposition" and decide they'd rather have the Tories in control. Right, now lets look seriously at the numbers for this. Tories, after these defections are on 16, LibDems, after the death on Jan 4th, are currently 9. Indies are on 6 including the two who until last week were the Tory leader and deputy. Greens 2, Lab just the one. One vacancy, by-election pending in seat currently includes one LD and one Tory. So the potential is there for an administration of "everybody but the Tories" = 9+6+2+1= 18 but it doesn't sound very stable , not with Bates and the former Tory leadership possibly playing political games. Maybe good idea at least to wait until we have the by-election, and it sounds to me as though some parties are already engaged in fighting that by-election. Bates said the voting for his proposal was 16-6, so the 16 Tories on one side and 5 Indies +Labour to make up the 6. LDs, Greens and 1 Indy presumably abstained. From those numbers I think they were right to do so at this stage. I am looking forward to this by-election coming up on the prediction competition.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 30, 2020 18:13:28 GMT
Especially when those LibDems are elected as an "opposition" and decide they'd rather have the Tories in control. Right, now lets look seriously at the numbers for this. Tories, after these defections are on 16, LibDems, after the death on Jan 4th, are currently 9. Indies are on 6 including the two who until last week were the Tory leader and deputy. Greens 2, Lab just the one. One vacancy, by-election pending in seat currently includes one LD and one Tory. So the potential is there for an administration of "everybody but the Tories" = 9+6+2+1= 18 but it doesn't sound very stable , not with Bates and the former Tory leadership possibly playing political games. Maybe good idea at least to wait until we have the by-election, and it sounds to me as though some parties are already engaged in fighting that by-election. Bates said the voting for his proposal was 16-6, so the 16 Tories on one side and 5 Indies +Labour to make up the 6. LDs, Greens and 1 Indy presumably abstained. From those numbers I think they were right to do so at this stage. I am looking forward to this by-election coming up on the prediction competition. So at least one, or possibly both, of the ex Tory leader/ deputy leader voted for the opposition proposal. When a Council is in one party’s hands for ever, and they lose overall control by 1 or 2 everyone always seems to assume that everyone else will form a coalition, on the basis that it might be the only chance ever of a different administration. It seems like it’s quite often too unstable to happen.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,567
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 30, 2020 18:58:04 GMT
Right, now lets look seriously at the numbers for this. Tories, after these defections are on 16, LibDems, after the death on Jan 4th, are currently 9. Indies are on 6 including the two who until last week were the Tory leader and deputy. Greens 2, Lab just the one. One vacancy, by-election pending in seat currently includes one LD and one Tory. So the potential is there for an administration of "everybody but the Tories" = 9+6+2+1= 18 but it doesn't sound very stable , not with Bates and the former Tory leadership possibly playing political games. Maybe good idea at least to wait until we have the by-election, and it sounds to me as though some parties are already engaged in fighting that by-election. Bates said the voting for his proposal was 16-6, so the 16 Tories on one side and 5 Indies +Labour to make up the 6. LDs, Greens and 1 Indy presumably abstained. From those numbers I think they were right to do so at this stage. I am looking forward to this by-election coming up on the prediction competition. So at least one, or possibly both, of the ex Tory leader/ deputy leader voted for the opposition proposal. When a Council is in one party’s hands for ever, and they lose overall control by 1 or 2 everyone always seems to assume that everyone else will form a coalition, on the basis that it might be the only chance ever of a different administration. It seems like it’s quite often too unstable to happen. The time to try anything is either as after voting down the budget (next month) or at the council AGM in May when the by-election will have happened. If there's no by-election now would make much more stability & sense but give there's two other opportunities coming up (where we would be in a much stronger position vis a vis the Tories should we defend the seat) waiting seems sensible, especially if the numbers at the moment aren't reliably there.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 30, 2020 19:04:46 GMT
So at least one, or possibly both, of the ex Tory leader/ deputy leader voted for the opposition proposal. When a Council is in one party’s hands for ever, and they lose overall control by 1 or 2 everyone always seems to assume that everyone else will form a coalition, on the basis that it might be the only chance ever of a different administration. It seems like it’s quite often too unstable to happen. The time to try anything is either as after voting down the budget (next month) or at the council AGM in May when the by-election will have happened. If there's no by-election now would make much more stability & sense but give there's two other opportunities coming up (where we would be in a much stronger position vis a vis the Tories should we defend the seat) waiting seems sensible, especially if the numbers at the moment aren't reliably there. The other 4 independents are going to have the big say in which administration is formed/ continues. They might make it a non starter.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,726
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 30, 2020 21:55:03 GMT
Remembering back a couple of decades, ALDC used to have a booklet called something like "So you won control! Now what?" that was designed for exactly this scenario. If the group were in a strong position they should have been thinking about this really... Perhaps tonyhill or tonygreaves remembers this booklet? I do! Not that we ever needed it In the days of the Committee System you were most likely to have experienced hands going in to taking control. The Cabinet System seems almost designed to prevent that.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,726
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 30, 2020 22:10:53 GMT
Especially when those LibDems are elected as an "opposition" and decide they'd rather have the Tories in control. Right, now lets look seriously at the numbers for this. Tories, after these defections are on 16, LibDems, after the death on Jan 4th, are currently 9. Indies are on 6 including the two who until last week were the Tory leader and deputy. Greens 2, Lab just the one. One vacancy, by-election pending in seat currently includes one LD and one Tory. So the potential is there for an administration of "everybody but the Tories" = 9+6+2+1= 18 but it doesn't sound very stable , not with Bates and the former Tory leadership possibly playing political games. Maybe good idea at least to wait until we have the by-election, and it sounds to me as though some parties are already engaged in fighting that by-election. Bates said the voting for his proposal was 16-6, so the 16 Tories on one side and 5 Indies +Labour to make up the 6. LDs, Greens and 1 Indy presumably abstained. From those numbers I think they were right to do so at this stage. I am looking forward to this by-election coming up on the prediction competition. That's essentially what we've got in Scarborough. Con won with Con=16, Ind=14, Lab=13, Grn=2, UKP=1, but Lab runs the council with the support of, let's see if I've got this right, half the Independents, at least one of the Cluster of Independents, at least one of the No Political Allegiance, and at least one of the Greens, and at least three Conservatives. The AGM election was done by paper ballot, so all we know is the result 33 for the proposed Labour-lead administration, 13 for RON.
(It's arithmetically possible that all the Labour councillors voted RON, and everbody else voted them in!)
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Post by tucson on Jan 31, 2020 16:37:59 GMT
Cllr Ian Wilkes (Newcastle-under-Lyme BC -Audley Ward) LD to Con
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 31, 2020 16:59:04 GMT
Cllr Ian Wilkes (Newcastle-under-Lyme BC -Audley Ward) LD to Con Is he up this year and how did the ward vote last month? Paging Pete Whitehead
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Post by andrewp on Jan 31, 2020 17:03:38 GMT
Cllr Ian Wilkes (Newcastle-under-Lyme BC -Audley Ward) LD to Con Is he up this year and how did the ward vote last month? Paging Pete Whitehead Newcastle under Lyme has moved to all outs, next elections are 2022.
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Post by tucson on Jan 31, 2020 17:04:10 GMT
Not up this year. He defected to the BIG (Borough Ind Group) for a day last year then back to LD as a ‘Liberal Leave’ supporter. I suspect the Ward was split 45/45/10 at at GE
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Post by andrewp on Feb 1, 2020 11:15:43 GMT
Jon Hubbard, Melksham South, Wiltshire Council. Lib Dem to Independent. Tweet about issues on Melksham Town Council
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Post by carolus on Feb 1, 2020 12:02:36 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 1, 2020 13:34:27 GMT
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,567
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 1, 2020 14:15:01 GMT
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,567
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 1, 2020 14:15:51 GMT
Jon Hubbard, Melksham South, Wiltshire Council. Lib Dem to Independent. Tweet about issues on Melksham Town Council A good friend of mine. Very sad.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 1, 2020 19:39:38 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Feb 1, 2020 19:53:53 GMT
Five defections from the Liberal Democrats in the week Britain left the European Union-not really coincidental, I think!
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,567
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 1, 2020 20:10:33 GMT
Five defections from the Liberal Democrats in the week Britain left the European Union-not really coincidental, I think! The two I have personal connections to are nothing to do with Europe. That's not to say that a (misplaced, in my opinion) sense of despair has taken hold of some. Quite frankly the blind optimism of Remain Tories who haven't gone is far more concerning.
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Post by tonyhill on Feb 1, 2020 20:55:47 GMT
There is a reasonably clear pattern over the years that this thread has been running that demonstrates how the majority of defections tend to be to whatever party is in the ascendancy at any particular time. Far be it for me to speculate as to why this might be, but that being the case I would expect a fair number of Labour and LibDem councillors to join the Tories in the next few months, followed by a drift in the other direction when the government starts to screw things up.
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