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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2018 0:24:12 GMT
BROMLEY Kelsey and Eden Park
Christine Harris (Conservative Party) 1,626 Marie Elizabeth Bardsley (Labour Party) 1,046 Julie Mary Ireland (Liberal Democrats) 633 Graham Francis Reakes (UKIP) 219 Paul Arthur Enock (Green Party) 73
Turnout 29.17%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2018 0:25:53 GMT
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 30, 2018 0:37:41 GMT
Stratford North (Warwickshire) result:
LDEM: 40.7% (+12.2) CON: 28.3% (+4.1) SFI: 16.0% (-17.1) LAB: 8.3% (-0.9) GRN: 6.7% (+1.6)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Stratford First (SFI).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2018 0:43:51 GMT
NORTHAMPTON Delapre and Briar Hill
Emma Louise ROBERTS (The Labour Party) 914 Daniel George SOAN (Conservative Party) 549 Nicola Claire McKENNA (Independent) 417 Michael Richard MAHER (Liberal Democrats) 133 Denise Ann DONALDSON (Green Party) 95
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,833
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Nov 30, 2018 7:41:14 GMT
After all the unpredictably, quite a ‘no change’ set of results
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 30, 2018 8:46:21 GMT
After all the unpredictably, quite a ‘no change’ set of results Some quite interesting trends though- not only the three Lib Dem wins, two of which were holds but had been by no means assured , and the third against a localist, so those wishing to play down those wins can find the argument that Lib Dems were not taking any seats off Labour or Tories. Quite strong advances for them though in the Tory held seats, but not getting far in the Labour held seats, all of which could be quite interesting if replicated in a general election. And of course all the usual caveats about extrapolating from local by elections, nevertheless these were biggish local elections at county, unitary and metropolitan borough level rather than shire districts which are fast becoming an endangered species.
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 30, 2018 10:11:12 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 30, 2018 11:01:34 GMT
Kelsey and Eden Park today in LB Bromley is the first by-election in my borough since 3rd May 2012 when I was the Lib Dem candidate in the Bromley Town by-election (held on the same day as the London Mayoral and Assembly elections). The Lib Dems have run a massive local campaign in this ward and we look forward to the result later. I note the 14 predictions on the other page! It will be interesting to see the result as the Lib Dems have come 2nd in the previous 2 local by-elections in Bromley Town and Shortlands, and the 3rd most recent was a successful Lib Dem defence of Crystal Palace.To put it in context, this was back in 2007 - Crystal Palace is of course a Labour ward these days. Your "massive" campaign on this occasion didn't bring about such a massive advance
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 30, 2018 12:02:28 GMT
Bromley, Kesley & Eden Park - Conservative hold Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | Conservative | 1,626 | 45.2% | +0.8% | -0.5% | +1.4% | +1.2% | Labour | 1,046 | 29.1% | +1.7% | +2.3% | +10.3% | +12.1% | Liberal Democrat | 633 | 17.6% | +2.7% | +4.2% | +9.0% | +8.7% | UKIP | 219 | 6.1% | +2.4% | +2.2% | -10.9% | -11.6% | Green | 73 | 2.0% | -7.6% | -8.1% | -9.9% | -10.3% | Total votes | 3,597 |
| 62% | 66% | 57% | 59% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ ½% / 1½% since May and 4½% / 5½% since 2014 Council now 50 Conservative, 8 Labour, 2 Independent Buckinghamshire, Aylesbury North West - Liberal Democrat hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | Liberal Democrat | 654 | 39.3% | +9.5% | +13.4% | Conservative | 507 | 30.5% | +5.9% | +16.1% | Labour | 426 | 25.6% | +2.9% | +10.7% | Green | 77 | 4.6% | +1.4% | from nowhere
| UKIP |
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| -19.7% | -44.8% | Total votes | 1,664 |
| 75% | 79% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 1¾% since may, otherwise not particularly meaningful. Council now 41 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour, 1 East Wycombe Independent, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant Northampton, Delapre & Briar Hill - Labour hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 914 | 43.4% | +15.6% | +17.2% | +20.2% | +22.1% | Conservative | 549 | 26.0% | +1.3% | +2.4% | +4.2% | +5.1% | Independent | 417 | 19.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 133 | 6.3% | -10.4% | -9.9% | -16.4% | -17.5% | Green | 95 | 4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.5% | -1.8% | UKIP |
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| -20.0% | -22.1% |
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| Save Our Public Services |
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| -6.8% | -7.5% | -6.2% | -6.5% | BNP |
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| -3.9% | -4.3% | -6.6% | -6.9% | Previous Independent |
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| -13.6% | -14.3% | Total votes | 2,108 |
| 31% | 34% | 50% | 53% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 7¼% / 7½% since 2015 and 8% / 8½% since 2011 Council now 25 Conservative, 16 Labour, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Oldham, Failsworth East - Labour hold Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2017 B | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | Labour | 677 | 58.5% | +5.3% | +0.1% | -7.2% | +4.1% | +11.4% | Conservative | 336 | 29.0% | +0.5% | +3.7% | +5.3% | +11.9% | +16.4% | Independent | 94 | 8.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 32 | 2.8% | from nowhere | -8.9% | from nowhere | -20.9% | -32.3% | Liberal Democrat | 18 | 1.6% | +0.4% | +0.4% | -1.3% | +0.0% | +0.5% | Previous Independent |
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| -13.6% |
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| Green |
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| -3.5% | -3.5% | -7.7% | -3.3% | -4.1% | Total votes | 1,157 |
| 57% | 81% | 54% | 24% | 52% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 2½% since May, but Labour to Conservative 1¾% since 2017 by-election, 6¼% since 2016 and, if meaningful, 4% since 2015 and 2½% since 2014 Council now 45 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat, 4 Conservative, 3 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 30, 2018 12:10:20 GMT
Oxfordshire, Wheatley - Liberal Democrat hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | Liberal Democrat | 1,380 | 61.0% | +15.8% | +21.0% | Conservative | 705 | 31.2% | -11.8% | +4.4% | Labour | 178 | 7.9% | -4.0% | -1.1% | UKIP |
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| -17.3% | Green |
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| -7.0% | Total votes | 2,263 |
| 75% | 97% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 13¾% since 2017 and 8¼% since 2013 Council now 30 Conservative, 14 Labour, 13 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent Alliance, 2 Independent, 1 Non-Group, 1 Vacant Warwickshire, Stratford North - Liberal Democrat gain from Stratford FirstParty | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | Liberal Democrat | 877 | 40.7% | +16.5% | Conservative | 610 | 28.3% | -0.2% | Stratford First | 345 | 16.0% | -17.1% | Labour | 180 | 8.3% | -0.9% | Green | 144 | 6.7% | +1.6% | Total votes | 2,156 |
| 81% |
Swing, if meaningful, Stratford First to Liberal Democrat ~ 16¾% since 2017 Council now 36 Conservative, 10 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Resident Welwyn Hatfield - Conservative hold Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Conservative | 960 | 58.7% | +6.8% | +19.0% | +19.0% | Liberal Democrat | 604 | 36.9% | from nowhere | +23.7% | +25.1% | Labour | 72 | 4.4% | -5.0% | -7.5% | -7.9% | Independent |
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| -38.7% | -35.2% | -36.2% | Total votes | 1,636 |
| 81% | 64% | 66% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 25 Conservative, 15 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 30, 2018 12:31:42 GMT
I imagine it reverts to being fairly safe Lib Dem though given the nature of the area Labour must have done very well there in the 2017 general election (and historically this was a very strong area for them). Of course there are still district councillors in the Riverside ward who were elected as UKIP (but now sit as Independents - hence why ukipay is now 'chiltern') Local Tories are putting in a lot of effort and think they can win it. In the event their effort was slightly more productive than the LibDems in Bromley, but not much.
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Post by froome on Nov 30, 2018 17:47:40 GMT
And a welcome back to you as well.
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Post by greenhert on Nov 30, 2018 22:33:51 GMT
So far, I cannot find a plausible explanation for Stratford First's particularly poor performance (losing more than half their 2017 vote and finishing a poor third).
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Post by mattb on Nov 30, 2018 23:47:54 GMT
So far, I cannot find a plausible explanation for Stratford First's particularly poor performance (losing more than half their 2017 vote and finishing a poor third). Wasn't their previous performance in the ward very closely linked to the previous councillor as an individual?
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Dec 1, 2018 10:58:53 GMT
Results!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 1, 2018 11:32:49 GMT
It's pedantic but I think an important distinction for somebody in your business to make, that the electoral areas for county councils are known as divisions rather than wards
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Dec 1, 2018 11:42:23 GMT
It's pedantic but I think an important distinction for somebody in your business to make, that the electoral areas for county councils are known as divisions rather than wards Whoops! You're completely right Pete. This is what happens when you rush
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2018 10:50:11 GMT
Scotland also has divisions, but Wales/London/Mets are wards (I think)
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Post by BossMan on Dec 2, 2018 10:54:44 GMT
So far, I cannot find a plausible explanation for Stratford First's particularly poor performance (losing more than half their 2017 vote and finishing a poor third). The other half has several friends in the ward, so I asked him to ask them. Previous councillor was well known and popular, although not one of those unfeasibly popular types. The replacement was regarded as somewhat snobby and not known outside of her district ward.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 2, 2018 10:58:13 GMT
Scotland also has divisions, but Wales/London/Mets are wards (I think) I think it#s the other way round re: Scotland and Wales - Scotland has wards but Wales has divisions (perhaps because their councils are rather absurdly called county councils). Most Unitary councils and all Met councils originated as second tier districts so they also have wards, the exceptions being those which originated as county councils (Cornwall, Durham, Northumberland, Shropshire, Wiltshire and Isle of Wight) which have divisions
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