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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 9, 2019 20:02:56 GMT
If the brexit party vote is moving back to Labour as suggested by the poll then it may affect results in the North East. Personally I'm not convinced the drop is genuine and would want to see more evidence Does the poll suggest that? There's so much churn at work that it's hard to know whether your hypothesis is true, or whether Labour is winning over some swing voters while the Tories crush it with BxP voters who'd vote Tory if there was no BxP.
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Post by beesknee5 on Nov 9, 2019 20:07:09 GMT
Does the poll suggest that? There's so much churn at work that it's hard to know whether your hypothesis is true, or whether Labour is winning over some swing voters while the Tories crush it with BxP voters who'd vote Tory if there was no BxP. On the face of it yes, underneath not a clue. My feeling at the moment is BxP will do very well in NE Labour heartlands and there will be plenty of shocks, in Tory areas I suspect BxP votes are already in the bag for the Tories.
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Post by formerfifer on Nov 9, 2019 20:25:43 GMT
Based on the fieldwork for this poll (Polling Day - 34), the closest comparison from the corresponding period of 2017 election would have been fieldwork ending on 3-May-17 (Polling Day - 36)
| 2017 | 2019 | Difference | Conservatives | 46% | 41% | -5% | Labour | 30% | 29% | -1% | Liberal Democrats | 9% | 15% | +6% | UKIP | 7% |
| -7% | Green | 2% | 6% | +4% | Brexit |
| 11% | +11% |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 9, 2019 20:49:36 GMT
Can that squeeze last, and how much further can it go? The public talk of a BxP/Con pact and Farage's decision not to stand may be proving very damaging. If the Brexit Party only get 6%, the Conservatives would be pretty happy. in the constituency profile pieces that pop up in the newspapers at the moment, most of those who say that they are voting for the Brexit Party seem to be Labour voters who say they will never vote Conservative. Agreed. At 8% and lower I think the BP are probably an actual benefit in over two-thirds of the seats.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2019 20:56:15 GMT
The increase in Labours vote is soley leavers where Labour has now retaken 2nd amongst that group
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 9, 2019 20:59:26 GMT
The increase in Labours vote is soley leavers where Labour has now retaken 2nd amongst that group Sub-sample health warning, but beesknee5 is more likely than not to have made the correct call, in which case this might not be so good for the Tories after all.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 16, 2019 19:13:23 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 16, 2019 19:18:17 GMT
I'd take 14% at the end of the campaign, but for the LDs to be squeezed to that point already would not be a good sign.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 16, 2019 19:33:13 GMT
I'd take 14% at the end of the campaign, but for the LDs to be squeezed to that point already would not be a good sign. Long way to go.
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 16, 2019 20:22:51 GMT
In either direction. The problem at the moment is that we are being squeezed down.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 23, 2019 18:05:20 GMT
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cogload
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Opinium
Nov 23, 2019 18:52:09 GMT
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Post by cogload on Nov 23, 2019 18:52:09 GMT
12 with one pollster. 16 with another.
Right.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 23, 2019 18:58:44 GMT
12 with one pollster. 16 with another. Right. Not that implausible considering typical margins of error. An average of 6+ polls is usually the safest measure.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Nov 23, 2019 19:00:49 GMT
True.
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 23, 2019 19:12:28 GMT
FML I know its only one poll but just how thick are people! Didnt any of them watch the debates (where Johnson was poor) or that lunatic on Question Time? I just despair of the electorate. That's a lead of peak-Blair proportions! madness!
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 23, 2019 19:14:03 GMT
FML I know its only one poll but just how thick are people! Didnt any of them watch the debates (where Johnson was poor) or that lunatic on Question Time? I just despair of the electorate. That's a lead of peak-Blair proportions! madness! May had higher individual leads. The average is only marginally ahead of where we were in '17. There's 19 days in this yet.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 23, 2019 19:14:31 GMT
People are thick because they don't vote the way you want them to. Right..
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 23, 2019 19:17:26 GMT
People are thick because they don't vote the way you want them to. Right.. Cmon Pete you're better than that. I'm referencing the fact that the Tory lead has increased significantly in recent days (per that poll) when any impartial observer would expect it to have shrunk [or at least both Tory & Labour shares to have gone down, if you think Corbyn has been as bad as Johnson)
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Nov 23, 2019 19:19:37 GMT
BMG has us on 18 which is too high. Subtract 3 from that, add 3 to this pile of shite and you get MOE with Yougov.
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Post by Vibe on Nov 23, 2019 19:22:52 GMT
FML I know its only one poll but just how thick are people! Didnt any of them watch the debates (where Johnson was poor) or that lunatic on Question Time? I just despair of the electorate. That's a lead of peak-Blair proportions! madness! Maybe they have a different perspective to you.
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