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Post by finsobruce on Oct 22, 2016 17:43:10 GMT
That actually counts as a good poll these days. Practically nosebleed territory...
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 22, 2016 17:47:51 GMT
That actually counts as a good poll these days. Good ... Poll ... Opinium ... Cannot calibrate Cannot calibrate
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,371
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 22, 2016 17:51:44 GMT
I'll have you know they use the finest d10 dice in the world to produce their highly respected surveys.
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Post by BossMan on Nov 12, 2016 10:30:07 GMT
1-4 November
Con 40, Lab 32, UKIP 13, LD 6, SNP 6, Greens 4
We don't seem to have heard very much in terms of VI in this country so far this month.
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 13, 2016 13:05:01 GMT
The SNP figure here is probably correct.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 13, 2016 13:17:29 GMT
The SNP figure here is probably correct. Are you implying a 16% hit rate?
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Post by BossMan on Nov 21, 2016 18:43:22 GMT
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Dec 19, 2016 5:42:15 GMT
13 - 16 Dec
Con 38 (-3) Lab 31 (+2) UKIP 13 (+1) LD 6 (-1) Grn 4 (-)
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 19, 2016 16:11:00 GMT
13 - 16 Dec Con 38 (-3) Lab 31 (+2) UKIP 13 (+1) LD 6 (-1) Grn 4 (-) That does not feel right to me judged entirely on paying attention, recent results and mood as judged by my own guts. Green. Possibly right. Seems high? LD. Seems obviously markedly low side? UKIP. Looks very toppy and my guess is overcorrected by weighting from about a true 9? Labour. Why on earth would it be 2-points up after dire news and poor results? Makes no sense and seems too high. Conservative. Could be right on basis of a 'market correction' but don't believe it is that low or only 7-points ahead of Labour. This looks entirely duff all round.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Opinium
Dec 19, 2016 19:25:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2016 19:25:36 GMT
No way Con + Lib would be as low as 44. I imagine would be more like 50.
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Post by bigfatron on Dec 19, 2016 20:10:28 GMT
It's a bit of a weird one - Opinium found fewer Lib Dem 2015 voters in 2,000 people than the other three polls found in about 1,100 each...
IN four polls that gives us 9%, 11%, 14% and now 6%, with +2%, +2%, +4% and now -1% for the LDems - can't be sure who but someone's got it wrong!
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,440
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 19, 2016 23:13:54 GMT
Lib Dems - Opinium 6% Ipsos/MORI 14% ever been such a big discrepancy (ie less than half) in any other polls? - any idea why?
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,745
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Post by myth11 on Dec 20, 2016 0:35:32 GMT
Lib Dems - Opinium 6% Ipsos/MORI 14% ever been such a big discrepancy (ie less than half) in any other polls? - any idea why? its only a 8 point range and as most polls have 3 or 4 points up or down error margin you would expect some polls to be at the edge of the ranges.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,440
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 20, 2016 8:01:08 GMT
its a while since I did any stats, but I suspect the 4 point MOE is an oversimplification, and depends on the size of the score - a vote 3% could not be subject to a 4 point error.
a pretty dramatic difference whatever
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 20, 2016 10:34:51 GMT
There was that time fairly early on in the last parliament when ICM was showing the LibDems in the high teens (due to their "adjustment" methods used then) and other pollsters regularly had them in single figures. Over time, however, those differences converged - that may also be the case on this occasion.
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 20, 2016 11:08:02 GMT
Opinium are rubbish.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 20, 2016 11:14:09 GMT
Fixed that for you
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 20, 2016 12:27:45 GMT
Please forgive the minor amendment.
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 22, 2016 15:03:24 GMT
No. Definitive. The Observer pays for them but never seems to splash the results. I suppose they have a contract.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 30, 2017 8:45:18 GMT
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