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ICM
Jul 11, 2018 13:02:16 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 11, 2018 13:02:16 GMT
6th-9th July is from day before Chequers through it's announcement on 7th (largely positive) and only one day of Davis' resignation on the 9th plus reaction; does not include Boris's resignation or reaction. I expect the next poll will show some damage to the Con figure (boost for UKIP?) but on the face of it that's a grim poll for Labour. I'd hardly say grim it's within MoE. Has anyone got tables? Sure. "Grim" is bit OTT. What I mean is that week after week the Tories have a lead of 1-3 points with this pollster. Any time it gets down to 1point, next week it's up to 2 or 3, however crap the govt is. That's why I'm watching for next week, because this week has been pretty poor for the Cons. (Our figure is also dreadful of course but we do seem to be regularly polling 1-2 points higher than 6 months back.)
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Jack
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ICM
Jul 25, 2018 13:36:07 GMT
Post by Jack on Jul 25, 2018 13:36:07 GMT
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ICM
Jul 25, 2018 22:13:45 GMT
Post by redtony on Jul 25, 2018 22:13:45 GMT
First time ICM has put Labour ahead since?
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Deleted
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ICM
Jul 25, 2018 22:22:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2018 22:22:29 GMT
Could be wrong but wiki says January
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ICM
Jul 26, 2018 8:12:13 GMT
Post by archaeologist on Jul 26, 2018 8:12:13 GMT
Since February.
2018-02-21: Con 42, Lab 43, LD 7, UKIP 3, Grn 2, Oth 3
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Deleted
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ICM
Aug 9, 2018 22:03:51 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2018 22:03:51 GMT
LAB 40 CON 39 LDEM 7 UKIP 6 GRN 3
Field work between 3rd-5th
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Jack
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ICM
Aug 22, 2018 13:20:41 GMT
Post by Jack on Aug 22, 2018 13:20:41 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
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ICM
Sept 27, 2018 17:48:21 GMT
Post by Jack on Sept 27, 2018 17:48:21 GMT
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ICM
Sept 28, 2018 11:19:47 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Sept 28, 2018 11:19:47 GMT
It's interesting that up to the last GE ICM were often at the top end of LD numbers, now they trail most of the rest. Reaction to the GE in the way they fiddle the figures but perhaps slight over-reaction. But in general, another nonboring poll. Let's see what they all say after all the conferences. Probably no changes. Everything is stuck - but it feels more like a log-jam than slack water?
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ICM
Oct 30, 2018 21:29:14 GMT
Post by archaeologist on Oct 30, 2018 21:29:14 GMT
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ICM
Oct 30, 2018 22:52:04 GMT
Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 30, 2018 22:52:04 GMT
Probably a sign that the guardian is losing money and looking to cut costs. I see that the first ICM poll in 1989 showed Con 44, Lab 40, LD 8 so not much has changed in 29 years.
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The Bishop
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ICM
Nov 1, 2018 11:47:21 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Nov 1, 2018 11:47:21 GMT
Basically, what went wrong with ICM is that they let their previous good forecasting record go to their heads and refused to consider things might be different now.
I recall Martin Boon being distinctly smug and sure of himself in his tweeting in the days leading up to last year's GE. He was rather quieter afterwards.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 11:57:20 GMT
ICM were one pollster last year (ComRes another) who more or less openly cooked their numbers on the basis that the figures they were generating 'looked wrong' and in particular didn't reflect likely turnout. There was a respectable case for this - turnout patterns last year were indeed different to past elections - but it does also imo rather show the folly of turning political polling into a forecasting game rather than a genuine reflection of public opinion as reported to the pollsters.
They also imo were one of the worst offenders for drifting away from simply providing a respected independent polling service and towards active punditry - again a reasonable commercial decision as it helped generate attention for their polling, but it exposed the dubiousness of a lot of their assumptions and frankly some of their unconscious biases too.
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Deleted
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ICM
Nov 1, 2018 12:03:59 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 12:03:59 GMT
Probably a sign that the guardian is losing money and looking to cut costs. I see that the first ICM poll in 1989 showed Con 44, Lab 40, LD 8 so not much has changed in 29 years. This is also true. They did say after last year's GE I think (or was it 2015?) that they would no longer be writing up VI polls as stories in themselves, but instead slot them into other coverage if they were mentioned at all. It's not a big leap from there to asking whether they are worth the money and coming up with this answer.
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ICM
Nov 1, 2018 15:13:42 GMT
Post by justin124 on Nov 1, 2018 15:13:42 GMT
A bit odd though that they have recently been appearing every 2 weeks rather than on a monthly basis!
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Deleted
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Nov 1, 2018 17:59:19 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 17:59:19 GMT
Basically, what went wrong with ICM is that they let their previous good forecasting record go to their heads and refused to consider things might be different now. I recall Martin Boon being distinctly smug and sure of himself in his tweeting in the days leading up to last year's GE. He was rather quieter afterwards. well hes left and joined Twycross at deltapoll
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ICM
Nov 1, 2018 20:25:30 GMT
Post by greenhert on Nov 1, 2018 20:25:30 GMT
Martin Boon left months ago; last year I wrote to him asking to work for ICM, but he told me ICM was not recruiting and was at the time cutting staff numbers.
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Deleted
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ICM
Nov 1, 2018 20:30:09 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 20:30:09 GMT
Martin Boon left months ago; last year I wrote to him asking to work for ICM, but he told me ICM was not recruiting and was at the time cutting staff numbers. I applied for a job at BMG never heard back
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Deleted
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ICM
Nov 13, 2018 8:05:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2018 8:05:43 GMT
Con 40 Lab 38 LDEM 9 UKIP 5 GRN 3 SNP 3 PC 1
26-28 Oct
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2019 21:56:37 GMT
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