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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 15:23:05 GMT
Ive made a mistake there. Its 18-35
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 11, 2019 22:01:49 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 12, 2019 11:52:58 GMT
Apparently the raw figures in this one had Labour clearly ahead!
(and this pollster's usual assumptions about a historically low turnout amongst younger voters - and 90%+ with pensioners - appear to have been maintained)
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Dec 14, 2019 11:37:45 GMT
Apparently the raw figures in this one had Labour clearly ahead! (and this pollster's usual assumptions about a historically low turnout amongst younger voters - and 90%+ with pensioners - appear to have been maintained) And they were vindicated - Very accurate indeed.
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Post by stewart64 on Dec 15, 2019 14:32:49 GMT
Yep well done to Kantar, spot on with the two main parties at 44/32. Must feel great for them. They never herded with the rest for safety. Honoury mention to Mori and Opinium. A disaster for those that went outlier to Labour like Com Res. Probably thought they were clever doing a 2017 and they had it in the bag. www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Mar 11, 2020 12:04:58 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Mar 11, 2020 15:07:19 GMT
when was the last 50% poll for any party? Labour in 1995/96?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 11, 2020 15:35:37 GMT
Tories at the start of the 2017 GE campaign (ComRes) Though as now, several others had them falling just short.
(they had a 52% in 2008 just before the financial crisis broke - it was also a record equalling 28 point lead over Labour)
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Post by archaeologist on May 2, 2020 7:45:39 GMT
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Jack
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Post by Jack on May 14, 2020 19:27:31 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2020 11:00:03 GMT
Good to see this shows changes from their last poll, rather than an already fairly distant GE (how long are people going to carry on doing that for?)
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 11:37:10 GMT
Good to see this shows changes from their last poll, rather than an already fairly distant GE (how long are people going to carry on doing that for?) seats don't change from the last poll
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 15, 2020 12:08:34 GMT
Starmer bounce in effect. At the moment seems to be via squeezing LD and Green though, which wont be enough to win. But he's having a good first month; Covid is his ideal kind of issue really - needs forensic ability. Whether Starmer will be able to handle Boris in a couple of years when we're back to talking about immigration rights of EU workers coming for jobs, remains to be seen.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 12:17:09 GMT
Starmer bounce in effect. At the moment seems to be via squeezing LD and Green though, which wont be enough to win. But he's having a good first month; Covid is his ideal kind of issue really - needs forensic ability. Whether Starmer will be able to handle Boris in a couple of years when we're back to talking about immigration rights of EU workers coming for jobs, remains to be seen. Boris needs to learn to do his homework and not bluster: he isn't dealing with Jeremy Corbyn any more.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 15, 2020 12:18:28 GMT
Starmer bounce in effect. At the moment seems to be via squeezing LD and Green though, which wont be enough to win. But he's having a good first month; Covid is his ideal kind of issue really - needs forensic ability. Whether Starmer will be able to handle Boris in a couple of years when we're back to talking about immigration rights of EU workers coming for jobs, remains to be seen. Boris needs to learn to do his homework and not bluster: he isn't dealing with Jeremy Corbyn any more. Agreed. I don't think he will though - he's too full of himself to accept that he needs to step up a division now.
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Post by matureleft on May 15, 2020 12:29:15 GMT
Starmer bounce in effect. At the moment seems to be via squeezing LD and Green though, which wont be enough to win. But he's having a good first month; Covid is his ideal kind of issue really - needs forensic ability. Whether Starmer will be able to handle Boris in a couple of years when we're back to talking about immigration rights of EU workers coming for jobs, remains to be seen. Boris needs to learn to do his homework and not bluster: he isn't dealing with Jeremy Corbyn any more. I doubt that he will (or can). He would argue (and there may be more than a little in this) that his bumbling, muddled, entertaining (to some) and sometimes incompetent persona is exactly the "authentic" counterpoint to Starmer's clinical, measured, "expert" style. If I am correct he will "lose" plenty of battles in PMQs and elsewhere (and that has some effect on parliamentary morale) but these will have less effect on voting intentions than I might hope.
A very different contest was Hague vs Blair. Hague was rather effective at PMQs. He was often funny. He was sharp. He riled Blair a lot. Fat lot of good it did him.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 15, 2020 12:41:35 GMT
Boris needs to learn to do his homework and not bluster: he isn't dealing with Jeremy Corbyn any more. I doubt that he will (or can). He would argue (and there may be more than a little in this) that his bumbling, muddled, entertaining (to some) and sometimes incompetent persona is exactly the "authentic" counterpoint to Starmer's clinical, measured, "expert" style. If I am correct he will "lose" plenty of battles in PMQs and elsewhere (and that has some effect on parliamentary morale) but these will have less effect on voting intentions than I might hope.
A very different contest was Hague vs Blair. Hague was rather effective at PMQs. He was often funny. He was sharp. He riled Blair a lot. Fat lot of good it did him.
Johnson just isn't a 'parliamentary politician'. He's one of those who'd be better suited to a presidential system. Funnily enough, his predecessor as London Mayor is another one.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2020 12:53:10 GMT
Starmer regularly duffing up Johnson at PMQs might not mean much *in itself*, save as a bit of a morale boost to Labour people when they could certainly do with it. The danger to the PM and Tories will come if it becomes part of a broader narrative (as was indeed the case when Blair often made Major's life a misery in the 1994-97 period)
And there may be a bit of mythology about Blair v Hague as well. TB definitely got better at dealing with his sparring partner over time (maybe a key moment was when Hague was ambushed, and embarrassed, about Lords reform in 1998) which shows he took that aspect of his job seriously. As already asked, will BoJo?
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hengo
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Post by hengo on May 15, 2020 13:26:52 GMT
Well it’s probably true that those of us interested in politics exaggerate the effect of performance at PMQs - even the much touted knock on effects through morale etc. But one thing this time I think is that Boris seems to me to have a lot of personal enemies across the media, including in the usual Tory papers, and particularly in broadcasting. A mixture probably of natural envy of one of their own, some real old resentments and a feeling he just doesn’t deserve the breaks he’s had. Over familiarity has bred contempt. So the widespread picking up of Starmers successful points scoring in the last couple of weeks may become a regular thing and become a problem for him.
He is clearly at the moment refraining from hitting back at Starmer, who is playing a skilful hand, sounding constructive while doing what he can to undermine confidence. How the two will fare when both have the gloves off I’m not sure. Looks like a classic rapier v bludgeon. Simply as someone who enjoys a decent tussle , and after the truly awful period of Corbyn against May, I am rather looking forward to it. A further minor point is that Boris’s style is far more suited to a full and lively House than the courtroom atmosphere in which Starmer is understandably comfortable.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2020 13:29:07 GMT
Johnson isn't totally well yet, is he? That would help explain not just his despatch box showings but his uncharacteristically tentative performance on Sunday.
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