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Post by manchesterman on Sept 11, 2019 22:13:43 GMT
No but they would be voting for a remain party and I believe in a Parliamentary democracy with proper MPs , not delegates. Additionally not all Tories are Leavers.
FWIW Ive never been in favour of a 2nd Ref. I think parliament should do their job and act in the interests of the country, in their expert opinion, having considered all the evidence for and against.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 11, 2019 23:14:34 GMT
No but they would be voting for a remain party and I believe in a Parliamentary democracy with proper MPs , not delegates. I'm slightly confused by this statement. What exactly do you mean by it? It strikes me that the two concepts are rather difficult to reconcile.
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 12, 2019 10:13:24 GMT
No but they would be voting for a remain party and I believe in a Parliamentary democracy with proper MPs , not delegates. Additionally not all Tories are Leavers. FWIW Ive never been in favour of a 2nd Ref. I think parliament should do their job and act in the interests of the country, in their expert opinion, having considered all the evidence for and against. Am going to once again place my objection to this silly exercise of trying to conjure majorities for leave or remain purely on party votes. This is not aimed at you specifically but more generally. Quite a few people do not base their votes on Brexit at all. And even for those that may do they may still refuse to vote for some parties that are on the same side of this debate. Quite a few Brexit party supporters would second preference labour over the conservatives for example, or would go lib dem or green over either of them. Am pretty sick of seeing the mental arithmetic gymnastics that has developed around this.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 12, 2019 10:24:58 GMT
No but they would be voting for a remain party and I believe in a Parliamentary democracy with proper MPs , not delegates. Additionally not all Tories are Leavers. FWIW Ive never been in favour of a 2nd Ref. I think parliament should do their job and act in the interests of the country, in their expert opinion, having considered all the evidence for and against. FWIW, I wasn't in favour of the first one in 1975. We are not a referendum democracy and trying to mix referendums with a parliamentary system of our kind has proven to be the nightmare that constitutional experts predicted.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 12, 2019 17:57:00 GMT
No but they would be voting for a remain party and I believe in a Parliamentary democracy with proper MPs , not delegates. Additionally not all Tories are Leavers. FWIW Ive never been in favour of a 2nd Ref. I think parliament should do their job and act in the interests of the country, in their expert opinion, having considered all the evidence for and against. Am going to once again place my objection to this silly exercise of trying to conjure majorities for leave or remain purely on party votes. This is not aimed at you specifically but more generally. Quite a few people do not base their votes on Brexit at all. And even for those that may do they may still refuse to vote for some parties that are on the same side of this debate. Quite a few Brexit party supporters would second preference labour over the conservatives for example, or would go lib dem or green over either of them. Am pretty sick of seeing the mental arithmetic gymnastics that has developed around this. Yes, I agree, it is much simpler to look at the huge number of polls since the GE, which consistently show Remain in the lead
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2019 17:24:53 GMT
Conservative 39% (+1) Labour 25% (+1) Liberal Democrats 18% (-2) The Brexit Party 8% (+1) SNP 3% (-1), Green 3% (nc), The Independent Group for Change <1% (-1), Other 1% (nc), UKIP 1% (nc), Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2019 13:53:10 GMT
There has been a change to the methodology. Kantar are now asking a follow-up question to participants that haven't given an answer. The affect is to hurt Labour and Tories in favour of tge Lib Dems and Brexit. Here is the headline without the change to methodology:
Con 41 Lab 28 Ldem 16 Brexit 8
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 13, 2019 17:35:32 GMT
How does what they call a 'squeeze question' manage to reduce the combined vote share of the four largest parties?
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 13, 2019 17:45:35 GMT
How does what they call a 'squeeze question' manage to reduce the combined vote share of the four largest parties? Either: 1) Due to rounding errors 2) If pressed, don't knows are more likely to name some other party, like the Greens.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2019 17:54:24 GMT
Yes most likely when people were forced to choose they opted for other
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 13, 2019 21:57:48 GMT
Also consider the nationalist parties and variables in specific constituencies like various independents, UKIP, CUK, etc.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 19, 2019 15:21:52 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 19, 2019 15:29:06 GMT
I can see the 'constituencies where UKIP outperformed BxP' thread on the horizon...
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 19, 2019 15:33:07 GMT
I can see the 'constituencies where UKIP outperformed BxP' thread on the horizon... Maybe, but Kantar have consistently shown much lower Brexit (and so correspondingly higher Conservative) shares than everyone else for a while. We can only compare like with like: the story is very different from ICM, for instance.
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pl
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Post by pl on Nov 19, 2019 15:39:40 GMT
Just tried putting that through Electoral Calculus for a laugh... Con maj 202 Con gain Gateshead, Newcastle North..... Ignore 1997, Electoral Calculus is channeling 1931!
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 19, 2019 15:42:16 GMT
Just tried putting that through Electoral Calculus for a laugh... Con maj 202 Con gain Gateshead, Newcastle North..... Ignore 1997, Electoral Calculus is channeling 1931! Does that mean a Tory supermajority somehow ends up installing Corbyn as PM to deliver policies that result in him being reviled by the Labour membership a decade down the line? I know the fundamentals of politics have changed, but that might be pushing it a bit.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 19, 2019 15:53:18 GMT
Just tried putting that through Electoral Calculus for a laugh... Con maj 202 Con gain Gateshead, Newcastle North..... Ignore 1997, Electoral Calculus is channeling 1931! What about Jarrow?
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pl
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Post by pl on Nov 19, 2019 15:54:43 GMT
Just tried putting that through Electoral Calculus for a laugh... Con maj 202 Con gain Gateshead, Newcastle North..... Ignore 1997, Electoral Calculus is channeling 1931! What about Jarrow? Nope - Lab Hold
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Post by justin124 on Nov 19, 2019 15:57:34 GMT
Kantar also showed a 18% Tory lead in mid-May 2017 just over 3 weeks before Polling Day.
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Nov 19, 2019 15:58:42 GMT
Interestingly, if the Brexit vote is really that low, then it probably removes the potential for some mad results eg Conservative gain Jarrow on 20-odd percent of the vote, but allows the Conservatives to gain more seats down a normal target list.
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