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Post by tonygreaves on May 22, 2019 20:26:16 GMT
Well they Kantar all be right!
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 21, 2019 10:34:13 GMT
And an interesting thread from Anthony Wells:
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 21, 2019 10:35:16 GMT
Diplomatically saying "this poll is rubbish", pretty much.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 21, 2019 10:37:41 GMT
This is an outlier. A large outlier. In fact, if you got a moment, it's a twelve-storey outlier with a magnificent entrance hall, carpeting throughout, 24-hour portage, and an enormous sign on the roof, saying 'This Is a Large Outlier'
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Post by carolus on Aug 21, 2019 10:51:22 GMT
Worth noting the same poll has support for a second referendum at 52% for, 29% against, which seems a) high and b) hard to reconcile with the VIs.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 21, 2019 11:04:36 GMT
Worth noting the same poll has support for a second referendum at 52% for, 29% against, which seems a) high and b) hard to reconcile with the VIs. Whilst I would never underestimate the ability of voters to (A) wish for completely contradictory things at the same time and (B) be ignorant of what parties actually stand for That does seem to strain credulity just a touch.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 21, 2019 11:38:15 GMT
The point about Kantar not prompting for Green or Brexit Party is probably key here.
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polupolu
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Post by polupolu on Aug 21, 2019 12:03:05 GMT
The point about Kantar not prompting for Green or Brexit Party is probably key here. Obviously that will have some effect - but the changes to their previous poll is *so* large I wonder if there hasn't been a big shift due to Johnson being in the news all the time.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2019 14:56:11 GMT
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Post by casualobserver on Aug 23, 2019 6:52:03 GMT
This is an outlier. A large outlier. In fact, if you got a moment, it's a twelve-storey outlier with a magnificent entrance hall, carpeting throughout, 24-hour portage, and an enormous sign on the roof, saying 'This Is a Large Outlier' Without wishing to give this poll any greater credibility than it deserves, it's worth saying that all significant changes of public opinion to do with voting intentions are initially and necessarily reflected by polls which are, by definition, outliers.
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Post by casualobserver on Aug 23, 2019 7:02:37 GMT
This poll shows the largest lead for any party in any poll since the General Election - a fact well worth stating.
There are a couple of completely justified methodological questions raised by this poll. Nevertheless, it's better to be in the position of leading in such a poll than not! If - and I accept that it's a very very big if - this poll is in any way replicated by another poll, it would substantially strengthen Boris' hand over the next few weeks in dealing with both the EU and the Parliamentary remainers.
As with many polls, what's really important of course is not the published headline percentages but the change in the published headline percentages since that polling company last produced a poll. The relative rarity of Kantor polls produced a highly distorted measure of change in this instance, not that that bothered the Sun too much in its coverage. What we need to look for now is any trend in shifts of support between polls by the same polling company where that company publishes polls more frequently than Kantor.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2019 9:32:10 GMT
This is an outlier. A large outlier. In fact, if you got a moment, it's a twelve-storey outlier with a magnificent entrance hall, carpeting throughout, 24-hour portage, and an enormous sign on the roof, saying 'This Is a Large Outlier' Without wishing to give this poll any greater credibility than it deserves, it's worth saying that all significant changes of public opinion to do with voting intentions are initially and necessarily reflected by polls which are, by definition, outliers. And on other occasions outlier polls are just that - outliers.
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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 24, 2019 9:48:38 GMT
This is an outlier. A large outlier. In fact, if you got a moment, it's a twelve-storey outlier with a magnificent entrance hall, carpeting throughout, 24-hour portage, and an enormous sign on the roof, saying 'This Is a Large Outlier' Without wishing to give this poll any greater credibility than it deserves, it's worth saying that all significant changes of public opinion to do with voting intentions are initially and necessarily reflected by polls which are, by definition, outliers. While that's sometimes true, if it were the case this time, other pollsters would show the same step change. They're not.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 29, 2019 7:43:53 GMT
Not sure if this is the correct place for this, but is anyone aware of any current polling on Leave v Remain? I've found this tracker in which the most recent poll is by Kantar on 19/8/19 showing Leave/Remain converging again but mostly a massive rise in the Don't Knows, also shown to slightly less extent in Deltapoll on 27th July. Conversely the "hindsight" polling (mostly YouGov) shows a consistent lead for Remain. I'm trying to work out the implications for public support for Boris in a GE called either to force through an exit or immediately after doing it. The big "don't know" figure on the 2nd Ref poll suggests a rise in doubt and uncertainty and perhaps "getting it over" would play well? But it could also reflect general worry that may crystallise against the govt if the actual exit gets sticky. I still feel the long-term bind for the Conservatives (to lesser extent also Labour for failing to come up with something better) is that there's a body of support for enacting the Ref result on grounds of why bother asking otherwise? but with a belief that doing it is the wrong idea. For those voters they may support Brexit taking place and even blame the govt if it doesn't, but their judgement of Conservative competence will necessarily be affected by their belief that it is a mistake.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 29, 2019 10:26:38 GMT
Not sure if this is the correct place for this, but is anyone aware of any current polling on Leave v Remain? I've found this tracker in which the most recent poll is by Kantar on 19/8/19 showing Leave/Remain converging again but mostly a massive rise in the Don't Knows, also shown to slightly less extent in Deltapoll on 27th July. Conversely the "hindsight" polling (mostly YouGov) shows a consistent lead for Remain. I'm trying to work out the implications for public support for Boris in a GE called either to force through an exit or immediately after doing it. The big "don't know" figure on the 2nd Ref poll suggests a rise in doubt and uncertainty and perhaps "getting it over" would play well? But it could also reflect general worry that may crystallise against the govt if the actual exit gets sticky. I still feel the long-term bind for the Conservatives (to lesser extent also Labour for failing to come up with something better) is that there's a body of support for enacting the Ref result on grounds of why bother asking otherwise? but with a belief that doing it is the wrong idea. For those voters they may support Brexit taking place and even blame the govt if it doesn't, but their judgement of Conservative competence will necessarily be affected by their belief that it is a mistake. Adam, I think the YouGov hindsight polling is the only reliable way to pick up anything that may be changing at the moment (but the absolute numbers may not be correct). To see trends you need to ask the same questions in the same order, with no "preconditioning" questions, and apply the same weightings and turnout corrections. If all the companies changed in the same direction at the same time it would mean something, and likewise if don't knows increased in all polls
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 29, 2019 11:09:09 GMT
Not sure if this is the correct place for this, but is anyone aware of any current polling on Leave v Remain? I've found this tracker in which the most recent poll is by Kantar on 19/8/19 showing Leave/Remain converging again but mostly a massive rise in the Don't Knows, also shown to slightly less extent in Deltapoll on 27th July. Conversely the "hindsight" polling (mostly YouGov) shows a consistent lead for Remain. I'm trying to work out the implications for public support for Boris in a GE called either to force through an exit or immediately after doing it. The big "don't know" figure on the 2nd Ref poll suggests a rise in doubt and uncertainty and perhaps "getting it over" would play well? But it could also reflect general worry that may crystallise against the govt if the actual exit gets sticky. I still feel the long-term bind for the Conservatives (to lesser extent also Labour for failing to come up with something better) is that there's a body of support for enacting the Ref result on grounds of why bother asking otherwise? but with a belief that doing it is the wrong idea. For those voters they may support Brexit taking place and even blame the govt if it doesn't, but their judgement of Conservative competence will necessarily be affected by their belief that it is a mistake. Adam, I think the YouGov hindsight polling is the only reliable way to pick up anything that may be changing at the moment (but the absolute numbers may not be correct). To see trends you need to ask the same questions in the same order, with no "preconditioning" questions, and apply the same weightings and turnout corrections. If all the companies changed in the same direction at the same time it would mean something, and likewise if don't knows increased in all polls Yes, that's the benefit of that particular poll, and why I linked to it - the other tracker obviously shows all companies so a change in methodology shows up as a movement over time. I still thought the big rise in Don't Knows in the Kantar and Deltapoll polls was interesting.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 29, 2019 11:27:03 GMT
Adam, I think the YouGov hindsight polling is the only reliable way to pick up anything that may be changing at the moment (but the absolute numbers may not be correct). To see trends you need to ask the same questions in the same order, with no "preconditioning" questions, and apply the same weightings and turnout corrections. If all the companies changed in the same direction at the same time it would mean something, and likewise if don't knows increased in all polls Yes, that's the benefit of that particular poll, and why I linked to it - the other tracker obviously shows all companies so a change in methodology shows up as a movement over time. I still thought the big rise in Don't Knows in the Kantar and Deltapoll polls was interesting. I find the Wikipedia page (below) on this easier to navigate (you have to look for post referendum polls) . Kantar polls always have a much larger % of "neither" than any of the others. The latest Kantar also shows a big shift towards Leave, but since it doesn't show up in YouGov I would be cautious.. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2019 10:04:07 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 11, 2019 22:06:03 GMT
Party-wise these polls are all over the place and range from a comfortable Tory majority to hung parliament; but what they virtually all show is a 54-46% majority for Remain parties. it's just the swing between Tory v BXP/UKIP and between Lab v Other remain parties. This has been almost exactly the position for about 2 years now and if anything can be described as "the will of the people", then this is it.
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Post by BossMan on Sept 11, 2019 22:09:49 GMT
Party-wise these polls are all over the place and range from a comfortable Tory majority to hung parliament; but what they virtually all show is a 54-46% majority for Remain parties. it's just the swing between Tory v BXP/UKIP and between Lab v Other remain parties. This has been almost exactly the position for about 2 years now and if anything can be described as "the will of the people", then this is it. Are you suggesting that all Labour supporters are Remainers?
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