mboy
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Post by mboy on May 26, 2020 11:06:11 GMT
A shift in the polls is hardly surprising given there's now been 5 days of hysterical wall-2-wall coverage of this on every media channel and outlet in the country. Whether it will shift underlying sentiment permanently is another question.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 26, 2020 11:12:30 GMT
It just feels like something bigger, its plausible a significant proportion of people will no longer be willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt.
That could of course still be a misreading and this all blows over soon, but if not it could go alongside other "paradigm shifts" - Labour after the Winter of Discontent, Tories after the Falklands, in the opposite direction after Black Wednesday, LibDems after entering coalition, ScotLab after the 2014 referendum.
Potentially high stakes here.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 26, 2020 12:11:41 GMT
It just feels like something bigger, its plausible a significant proportion of people will no longer be willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt. That could of course still be a misreading and this all blows over soon, but if not it could go alongside other "paradigm shifts" - Labour after the Winter of Discontent, Tories after the Falklands, in the opposite direction after Black Wednesday, LibDems after entering coalition, ScotLab after the 2014 referendum. Potentially high stakes here. Does noone else find-it hilarious that a fleeting activity of a govt adviser could be compared to those geopolitical events? Think what it means for the future of politics if this is true: thatgovernments will not be judged on the life or death of the people they care for and the economies they run, but on how the 24h news cycle can be used to deliver scalps. You may think this is great now Bish, but your lot will die in due course by the same sword you sharpen...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 12:12:36 GMT
I think people need to get a grip. This really isn't as significant as it's being made out to be.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 12:13:42 GMT
It just feels like something bigger, its plausible a significant proportion of people will no longer be willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt. That could of course still be a misreading and this all blows over soon, but if not it could go alongside other "paradigm shifts" - Labour after the Winter of Discontent, Tories after the Falklands, in the opposite direction after Black Wednesday, LibDems after entering coalition, ScotLab after the 2014 referendum. Potentially high stakes here. Does noone else find-it hilarious that a fleeting activity of a govt adviser could be compared to those geopolitical events? Think what it means for the future of politics if this is true: thatgovernments will not be judged on the life or death of the people they care for and the economies they run, but on how the 24h news cycle can be used to deliver scalps. You may think this is great now Bish, but your lot will die in due course by the same sword you sharpen... I would agree with that but the die on the sword shapened...
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 26, 2020 12:28:23 GMT
A shift in the polls is hardly surprising given there's now been 5 days of hysterical wall-2-wall coverage of this on every media channel and outlet in the country. Whether it will shift underlying sentiment permanently is another question. It really depends what cuts through from the Westminster bubble.
But, like with Corbyn, it could be the start of death by a thousand cuts.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 26, 2020 12:28:34 GMT
Objectively you can see mboy's point about this being overblown, but the danger is surely that the fallout will make the government's entire handling of the pandemic toxic. And that would indeed be a big deal.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 26, 2020 12:38:41 GMT
Perhaps we should make a distinction between the popping of Boris's honeymoon bubble (which I think this definitely is) with an unrecoverable sea-change (which I think this almost certainly isn't).
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 26, 2020 12:53:52 GMT
It just feels like something bigger, its plausible a significant proportion of people will no longer be willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt. That could of course still be a misreading and this all blows over soon, but if not it could go alongside other "paradigm shifts" - Labour after the Winter of Discontent, Tories after the Falklands, in the opposite direction after Black Wednesday, LibDems after entering coalition, ScotLab after the 2014 referendum. Potentially high stakes here. Does noone else find-it hilarious that a fleeting activity of a govt adviser could be compared to those geopolitical events? Think what it means for the future of politics if this is true: thatgovernments will not be judged on the life or death of the people they care for and the economies they run, but on how the 24h news cycle can be used to deliver scalps. You may think this is great now Bish, but your lot will die in due course by the same sword you sharpen... Repeating myself, but Cummingsgate is ephemeral, but it's tied to the death toll from Covid + the impending economic crash. Each as serious as The Bishop's examples, together worse. Do people trust the govt to handle the epidemic and then the economy. Are they competent? Are they on our side? If so, then when the pain hits people will stick by the govt, lots of "tighten our belts, shoulder to the wheel, all in it together" wartime rhetoric (+ a "Labour would be worse") sees the govt through especially as the thing is global. PPE and testing have been niggling away at the competence issue but the wheels hit a rock in Johnson's broadcast on Stay Alert. Cummingsgate strikes at the "on our side" issue. @kipper1 is right: people feel taken for mugs (I've seen that verbatim) It's a lousy hill to die on, Davıd Boothroyd pointed out how they could have got round this with a token temporary sacking. In a year when things are bad in e.g. Birmingham the govt will need people there to give them benefit of the doubt that it'll come good. I don't think they'll have it any more. The coalition example is sound IMO especially how tuition fees - inherently minor - blew trust and thereafter nothing we said was trusted. I don't know if this will be as bad but it is a bad misreading and the response of Cummings apologists on here last night shows how they continue to misread the mood. Misreading isn't making things worse, it is the problem itself.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 26, 2020 13:13:19 GMT
The coalition example is sound IMO especially how tuition fees - inherently minor - blew trust and thereafter nothing we said was trusted. I don't know if this will be as bad but it is a bad misreading and the response of Cummings apologists on here last night shows how they continue to misread the mood. Misreading isn't making things worse, it is the problem itself. Except that the polling shows that the huge drop in LD support occurred almost immediately after the Coalition being formed, and had already reached floor level *before* the tuition fees vote on 9th Dec: Seems ironic to me that you quote an flawed narrative story that actually illustrates the opposite side of the argument!
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Post by manchesterman on May 26, 2020 13:41:50 GMT
I think that was more the shock and horror millions of voters felt at them going into coalition with the tories, when most of us of the centre-left persuasion were casting their vote on the expectation of a centre-left coalition, not a centre-right one. tuition fees were a factor, but that was just one policy affecting a limited number of voters
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 26, 2020 13:41:57 GMT
The coalition example is sound IMO especially how tuition fees - inherently minor - blew trust and thereafter nothing we said was trusted. I don't know if this will be as bad but it is a bad misreading and the response of Cummings apologists on here last night shows how they continue to misread the mood. Misreading isn't making things worse, it is the problem itself. Except that the polling shows that the huge drop in LD support occurred almost immediately after the Coalition being formed, and had already reached floor level *before* the tuition fees vote on 9th Dec: Seems ironic to me that you quote an flawed narrative story that actually illustrates the opposite side of the argument! The u-turn on fees was known well before the actual vote. But I'll accept the point that going into coalition at all was regarded by many as a betrayal, fees became the shorthand. Perhaps the Rose Garden press conference would be a better analogy. But the comparison of failing to understand your voters and that what you think is pragmatic is to them betrayal still stands. Another point of comparison: our core vote is tiny, most 2010 LD voters had little loyalty, they had no reserves of loyalty. Turned out most of them were ex-Labour unable to bear voting Tory. Current core Tory vote is big but swollen with ex-Lab voters. They have no reserves of loyalty either. And they've already banked the thing they wanted most.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 26, 2020 13:48:23 GMT
Perhaps we should make a distinction between the popping of Boris's honeymoon bubble (which I think this definitely is) with an unrecoverable sea-change (which I think this almost certainly isn't).Cummings? No, not big enough Handling of lockdown? Yes. Goes to competence and trust. Can you see any way that we are not going to emerge with a lot of dead people, a wrecked economy, a more miserable way of living, and serious questions over the handling? Damn right I think that is a sea-change. And people will look back and ask how the govt went from record approval ratings, and the spike in the opinion poll graphs will be this week. Cummings will be shorthand for it.
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Post by manchesterman on May 26, 2020 13:59:43 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land
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Post by curiousliberal on May 26, 2020 14:08:14 GMT
It just feels like something bigger, its plausible a significant proportion of people will no longer be willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt. That could of course still be a misreading and this all blows over soon, but if not it could go alongside other "paradigm shifts" - Labour after the Winter of Discontent, Tories after the Falklands, in the opposite direction after Black Wednesday, LibDems after entering coalition, ScotLab after the 2014 referendum. Potentially high stakes here. Does noone else find-it hilarious that a fleeting activity of a govt adviser could be compared to those geopolitical events? Think what it means for the future of politics if this is true: thatgovernments will not be judged on the life or death of the people they care for and the economies they run, but on how the 24h news cycle can be used to deliver scalps. You may think this is great now Bish, but your lot will die in due course by the same sword you sharpen... Tbf, I suspect Bish is aware of this as it's what his lot were dying by while BoJo's support trundled along at 90%+. It's also done a lot of harm to Labour in the recent past (whenever the rags currently pursuing Cummings deemed Labour a threat) and may have been what sunk Miliband's campaign.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on May 26, 2020 14:23:53 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land An 80-seat majority being overturned would be quite something. Actually, what's the biggest majority that's been overturned at the following election? I'm sure someone here will know!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 14:27:37 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land An 80-seat majority being overturned would be quite something. Actually, what's the biggest majority that's been overturned at the following election? I'm sure someone here will know! probably 1945 100+ majority was overturned by another 100+ majority
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 14:31:07 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land the Tories were relected in 1992 after the government cut interest rates and taxes at the same time that led to the housing crash
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 26, 2020 14:57:25 GMT
I think people need to get a grip. This really isn't as significant as it's being made out to be. Ohhhh....it's bigger...
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Post by manchesterman on May 26, 2020 15:02:34 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land An 80-seat majority being overturned would be quite something. Actually, what's the biggest majority that's been overturned at the following election? I'm sure someone here will know! 2010 Cameron was about (from memory) 100+ seats behind Labour and came out about 40 ahead? (someone will find the exact figures). In fact 2019 is almost an exact mirror for the 2 main parties of the seat totals going into 2010 election.
Not saying Labour would have a majority (that is a mountain) but I dont see that 70-80 seats changing hands is unreasonable. Pretty sure ALL the red wall seats will come back so there's about 30 without much effort at all.
Edit: Main reason for that large swing of course was the economic crisis caused by the global financial collapse. Just switch the party names, dates and add "pandemic-induced" before "global financial collapse" and the 2 scenarios are extremely similar!
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