Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2019 15:19:02 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 18:57:18 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 19:03:53 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 19, 2019 16:40:47 GMT
Lads, it's ComedyResults.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 19, 2019 16:59:58 GMT
Surprised BritainElects is paying for these sorts of polls. Hypothetical polling is usually garbage and ComRes/YouGov are releasing essentially the same headline voting intentions a few days earlier/later anyways.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jul 19, 2019 17:45:19 GMT
Surprised BritainElects is paying for these sorts of polls. Hypothetical polling is usually garbage and ComRes/YouGov are releasing essentially the same headline voting intentions a few days earlier/later anyways. Garbage tends to be cheaper.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Jul 27, 2019 21:32:30 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 27, 2019 21:36:35 GMT
4 out of 4 polls today showing a Brex > Con swing
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
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Post by Vibe on Jul 27, 2019 23:43:58 GMT
4 out of 4 polls today showing a Brex > Con swing Totally predictable with a Brexiteer now in charge. The question is "will this trend continue?" And will Labour panic and get a new leader before a GE?
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
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Post by Vibe on Jul 27, 2019 23:45:02 GMT
4 out of 4 polls today showing a Brex > Con swing Totally predictable with a Brexiteer now in charge. The question is "will this trend continue?" And will Labour panic and get a new leader before a GE?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 28, 2019 9:46:44 GMT
4 out of 4 polls today showing a Brex > Con swing Totally predictable with a Brexiteer now in charge. The question is "will this trend continue?" And will Labour panic and get a new leader before a GE?Not on the figures shown in this poll they won't.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
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Post by Vibe on Jul 28, 2019 11:08:18 GMT
Totally predictable with a Brexiteer now in charge. The question is "will this trend continue?" And will Labour panic and get a new leader before a GE?Not on the figures shown in this poll they won't. The figures are likely to change in the coming months, but if they don't and the 4 polls continue to show a healthy Conservative lead then there will be worried MP's. Labour should be doing a lot better being in opposition for a long time and with austerity. Things could even get better for the Conservatives if more of the Brexit vote returns home or the Brexit Party form a pact.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2019 20:51:11 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 2, 2019 21:25:08 GMT
And so the slow creep back up for the big 2 begins? Accelerating after Brexit?
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 3, 2019 7:44:28 GMT
I'm begining to despair! The polls really are all over the place.
Opinium 26 July - Con 30, Lab 28, LD 16, Bx 15, Gr 5 Delta 27 July - Con 30, Lab 25, LD 18, Bx 14, Gr 4 ComRes 28 July - Con29, Lab 30, LD 16, Bx 15, Gr 5 YouGov 30 July - Con 32, Lab 22, LD 19, Bx 13, Gr 8 IpsMORI 30 July - Con34, Lab 24, LD 20, Bx 9, Gr 6
We can choose from a Con lead of 10 to a Lab lead of 1. Or how about Lab somewhere between 22 and 30? That's really on the outer edge of margin of error. Brexit and Green support also widely divergent.
At least they're not herding. But, which to believe?
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 3, 2019 7:45:50 GMT
And yes, I would expect some kind of slow creep back for the big two. As long there is a Boris bounce then Labour might benefit from the must stop Boris above all else brigade.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 3, 2019 8:36:31 GMT
I'm begining to despair! The polls really are all over the place. Opinium 26 July - Con 30, Lab 28, LD 16, Bx 15, Gr 5 Delta 27 July - Con 30, Lab 25, LD 18, Bx 14, Gr 4 ComRes 28 July - Con29, Lab 30, LD 16, Bx 15, Gr 5 YouGov 30 July - Con 32, Lab 22, LD 19, Bx 13, Gr 8 IpsMORI 30 July - Con34, Lab 24, LD 20, Bx 9, Gr 6 We can choose from a Con lead of 10 to a Lab lead of 1. Or how about Lab somewhere between 22 and 30? That's really on the outer edge of margin of error. Brexit and Green support also widely divergent. At least they're not herding. But, which to believe? The Con figure doesn't vary much, nor does BxP apart from that IpsosMORI poll, it is the Labour figure that varies a lot with knock-on effects on LD and Green. (The combined LD and Green share is 21-22% in the 26th-27th July polls, rising to 26-27% in the 30th July polls, so there's a degree of agreement there too.) I suspect the point is that the Conservative and Leave votes have coalesced round Boris pro tem (possible future changes wrt to BxP depending on events) but the anti-Conservative and Remain votes are still unsure of the best bet - recent big move away from Labour due to feeble leadership, but nagging doubts about whether anyone can break the two-party system. That makes it hard to measure accurately an uncertain electorate and technical issues such as assessing likelihood to vote must come into play.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 3, 2019 10:47:34 GMT
Ipsos is down to lack of prompting for the Brexit Party, so the Conservative and Brexit Party numbers would basically be the same for every pollster if they prompted. Considering the possibility that prompting the name might - because 'Brexit' is associated o/c with more than just the Brexit Party! - artificially boost their figure, maybe what you want is to prompt for half the sample and not for the rest
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 3, 2019 15:03:58 GMT
Ipsos is down to lack of prompting for the Brexit Party, so the Conservative and Brexit Party numbers would basically be the same for every pollster if they prompted. Mori did prompt for BXP in their latest poll, as said in the latest article here ukpollingreport.co.uk/
The argument is that Yougov know the past vote of panel members recorded at the time of the General election and use that, whereas the others use the currently recalled past vote. A significant number(7% absolute) have forgotten they voted Labour in 2017, and they get downweighted in non Yougov samples. Tory voters remember how they voted much better. Mori do not weight for past vote at all.
False recall is a well known thing and may be affecting Brexit polling as well, but this has not been tested by Yougov as yet as far as i can see.
So, just to summarise the conclusion: Survation, Comres, Opinium and maybe some others are overestimating the Labour vote currently. Yougov and Mori are more accurate on the Labour vote, as they were in the Euro elections
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Aug 3, 2019 15:58:03 GMT
Mori did prompt for BXP in their latest poll, as said in the latest article here Thanks. Saw it mentioned on Twitter and seemed believable based on the very low number for Brexit Party.
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