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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 9, 2019 15:24:36 GMT
Obviously we have to remember that this is ComRes- but surely Con and Lab would be relatively happy with those figures? Lib Dems would be disappointed, and the Greens potentially wiped out as Pete Whitehead and edgbaston suggested elsewhere.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2019 15:47:11 GMT
Obviously we have to remember that this is ComRes- but surely Con and Lab would be relatively happy with those figures? Lib Dems would be disappointed, and the Greens potentially wiped out as Pete Whitehead and edgbaston suggested elsewhere. Yes. But bear in mind this is one of the polls with CHUK included. As with UKIP, one of the issues must be their ability to put up credible candidates. If there are significant areas in which they didn't (or in which there might be a pact, which I feel they will need if they want to hold their current seats) then if even half of their 9% went our way I think we'd be OK with the 11-12% that results.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2019 16:05:30 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 9, 2019 17:00:02 GMT
Obviously we have to remember that this is ComRes- but surely Con and Lab would be relatively happy with those figures? Lib Dems would be disappointed, and the Greens potentially wiped out as Pete Whitehead and edgbaston suggested elsewhere. I may be being thick, but I'm not sure I understand how 3% in a Westminster poll would indicate Greens being wiped out when it's basically doubling our vote share compared to 2017 and our nearest competitors in the seat we hold are going sharply backwards.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 9, 2019 17:05:49 GMT
Obviously we have to remember that this is ComRes- but surely Con and Lab would be relatively happy with those figures? Lib Dems would be disappointed, and the Greens potentially wiped out as Pete Whitehead and edgbaston suggested elsewhere. I may be being thick, but I'm not sure I understand how 3% in a Westminster poll would indicate Greens being wiped out when it's basically doubling our vote share compared to 2017 and our nearest competitors in the seat we hold are going sharply backwards. Sorry, I was reading that as a European election poll.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 9, 2019 17:08:59 GMT
I may be being thick, but I'm not sure I understand how 3% in a Westminster poll would indicate Greens being wiped out when it's basically doubling our vote share compared to 2017 and our nearest competitors in the seat we hold are going sharply backwards. Sorry, I was reading that as a European election poll. Ah - Yes that would be a disastrous euro poll. But at this stage I'd treat all euro polling with a heavy heavy pinch of salt...
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 9, 2019 17:21:43 GMT
I agree - no poll would suggest that the Greens would lose Brighton Pavilion to Labour. Nor is their any suggestion that they could gain any other seat. Bristol West's MP, Thangham Debbonaire, was in favour of a second referendum before the 2017 GE and has since publicly come out against it. The former LibDem MP stood for Bristol W in 2017, and is not our candidate for the next election (so we won't be getting his ex-incumbency boost). On their part, the Greens have picked someone other than Molly Scott-Cato for the next GE. With the highest number of Revoke signatures in the country, I would say the Greens might be in with a long shot there.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 9, 2019 17:49:29 GMT
I agree - no poll would suggest that the Greens would lose Brighton Pavilion to Labour. Nor is their any suggestion that they could gain any other seat. Bristol West's MP, Thangham Debbonaire, was in favour of a second referendum before the 2017 GE and has since publicly come out against it. The former LibDem MP stood for Bristol W in 2017, and is not our candidate for the next election (so we won't be getting his ex-incumbency boost). On their part, the Greens have picked someone other than Molly Scott-Cato for the next GE. Um, I challenge that on the facts. Here's what Thangam Debbonaire said about the People's Vote marchers just over a week ago: " I share their conviction that another public vote may be the only way out of this mess – and in this vote, remaining in the European Union must be on the ballot paper.". So I don't know where you get this "since publicly come out against it" rubbish.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 9, 2019 17:54:04 GMT
That's not what she said in the summer of 2018.It's a little ironic that she's accused us of 'playing politics' on this despite the fact that, considering your source, she has now gone from being in favour of one to against it and back again!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 9, 2019 18:20:13 GMT
That's the local paper hyping things. Read her remarks without their spin and what she was saying was that she felt there were practical concerns which made it practically difficult to have one. That's quite different from opposition to the concept.
As far as the rest of it goes, they were remarks made at a point when she was a frontbencher and before Labour policy came to support a People's Vote on the deal. I'm sure you're not so stupid that you don't realise that constrained what she could say.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 9, 2019 18:24:02 GMT
I agree - no poll would suggest that the Greens would lose Brighton Pavilion to Labour. Nor is their any suggestion that they could gain any other seat. Bristol West's MP, Thangham Debbonaire, was in favour of a second referendum before the 2017 GE and has since publicly come out against it. The former LibDem MP stood for Bristol W in 2017, and is not our candidate for the next election (so we won't be getting his ex-incumbency boost). On their part, the Greens have picked someone other than Molly Scott-Cato for the next GE. With the highest number of Revoke signatures in the country, I would say the Greens might be in with a long shot there. This is Stephen Williams who went from 48% in 2010 down to 19% in 2015 and then 7% in 2017 right? Well it's a good thing he got an ex-incumbency boost in 2017. I'd hate to think what share he'd have got if he had a negative personal vote..
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 10, 2019 22:53:22 GMT
That's the local paper hyping things. Read her remarks without their spin and what she was saying was tha t she felt there were practical concerns which made it practically difficult to have one. That's quite different from opposition to the concept. As far as the rest of it goes, they were remarks made at a point when she was a frontbencher and before Labour policy came to support a People's Vote on the deal. I'm sure you're not so stupid that you don't realise that constrained what she could say. I can accept she's genuinely shifted position, but one of the reasons she objected to it was that it didn't 'bring the country back together', and another was that Remain might lose a second vote. I don't see how either of these have necessarily changed, despite the shift towards Remain in public support. Regardless of her duties as a frontbencher, those remarks probably irked a large number of her constituents and you should expect to see them printed all over Green and LD literature. With regards to Pete Whitehead 's comment, you will note that the very same Stephen Williams delivered a swing of 9% in 2010, above the average Lab to LD swing. In 2015,he swing against him was harder in absolute terms than nationwide, but from a higher base - overall, it collapsed to just over half of what it had been in 2010, where the very same vote collapsed to about a third of its old value nationwide. It then fell again as the LDs went backwards in 2017 (admittedly not in most Remain-voting areas, but this is the sort of place switched on enough to be angry about Farron's non-answers), but only after the party had been knocked into 3rd place. I would contend that he probably did have something of a positive personal vote. @barnabymarder To be clear, I think it's a Vauxhall-esque long shot. I certainly wouldn't be a Green targeting it if I had any target list like ours, but the Greens really don't have the luxury of choice, and this is the sort of thing they could at least try to win in the space of a couple of election cycles.
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Post by londonseal80 on Apr 11, 2019 10:23:42 GMT
Let the Greens think they can win Bristol West. Far be it from me to disabuse them of such a notion. If the Greens gain a second seat anywhere, I believe it will be somewhere like Streatham. They will not win it of course because I believe Chukka Umunna is likely to hold it.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 11, 2019 11:31:25 GMT
Let the Greens think they can win Bristol West. Far be it from me to disabuse them of such a notion. If the Greens gain a second seat anywhere, I believe it will be somewhere like Streatham. They will not win it of course because I believe Chukka Umunna is likely to hold it. I'd say that the main reason the Greens won't win it is because they are up against bigger party machines and profiles and so on, not because you happen to believe that they won't.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 11, 2019 11:49:59 GMT
If the Greens gain a second seat anywhere, I believe it will be somewhere like Streatham. They will not win it of course because I believe Chukka Umunna is likely to hold it. I'd say that the main reason the Greens won't win it is because they are up against bigger party machines and profiles and so on, not because you happen to believe that they won't. Indeed. It's a constituency where we only have three out of 24 councillors. In a standalone GE it might be possible for us to mobilise enough of a team from the rest of London to run a credible campaign, but it doesn't strike me as the kind of place we could believably break through in one election. Bristol West still looks to me like the only seat where a Green gain in a snap General Election has a probability that's measurably above zero.
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Post by froome on Apr 11, 2019 12:38:45 GMT
Let the Greens think they can win Bristol West. Far be it from me to disabuse them of such a notion. That's very kind of you. I would suggest people look at the movement of votes there over the last two elections before making any generalised statements. Politics right now certainly isn't in a normal situation.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 17, 2019 22:52:03 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 17, 2019 22:54:22 GMT
Astonishing to consider that these jokers are still in business.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 17, 2019 22:56:57 GMT
Astonishing to consider that these jokers are still in business. Why do you describe them as jokers?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 17, 2019 23:03:32 GMT
Let the Greens think they can win Bristol West. Far be it from me to disabuse them of such a notion. If the Greens gain a second seat anywhere, I believe it will be somewhere like Streatham. They will not win it of course because I believe Chukka Umunna is likely to hold it. Edinburgh North would be a good prospect too. Last week they got 25% in a by-election there and the Greens aren't usually good at by-elections.
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