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Post by greenchristian on Nov 24, 2015 23:43:07 GMT
How can UKIP have gone up from their last poll reading of 15% by 1% and now record at 11%? Because it's ComRes?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 12, 2015 19:33:30 GMT
ComRes: Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday Conservatives 40% (-2) Labour 29% (+2) UK Independence Party 16% (+1) Liberal Democrats 7% (NC) Green Parties 3% (NC) Other findings
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Post by bolbridge on Dec 12, 2015 22:24:55 GMT
Tonight is a good example of how few people understand the reliability of crosstabs
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 18, 2015 10:53:25 GMT
Latest phone survey, for the record - Con 37 Lab 33 UKIP 11 LibDem 7 Green 5.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 18, 2015 12:59:03 GMT
It is a significant improvement for us on the previous survey in this series. That, at least, is fair comment.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 18, 2015 14:11:58 GMT
It is a significant improvement for us on the previous survey in this series. That, at least, is fair comment. And no-one with any sense believes this is going to be easy. The Tories are delivering for those who voted for them - I really can't see why more on our side can't understand that. It doesn't mean we have to agree with what they are doing, but they are readily ensuring that those 36% are going to be relatively satisfied and getting what they voted for. Osborne is canny and political enough to ensure that continues until the next election Our task is to reach those who are not benefitting in this way and offer something better to make it worthwhile for them to vote. That won't happen overnight either.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2015 14:31:55 GMT
It is a significant improvement for us on the previous survey in this series. That, at least, is fair comment. I don't believe it, I'm trusting myself significantly more than I did before May and as far as I can see there has been a small but noticeable pro Tory swing since May. Mostly Labour leaners saying not Labour but unsure between others.Something like C 39, Lab 29. Don't see Labour gaining anyone at all.
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Post by A Brown on Dec 18, 2015 15:06:03 GMT
It is a significant improvement for us on the previous survey in this series. That, at least, is fair comment. I don't believe it, I'm trusting myself significantly more than I did before May and as far as I can see there has been a small but noticeable pro Tory swing since May. Mostly Labour leaners saying not Labour but unsure between others.Something like C 39, Lab 29. Don't see Labour gaining anyone at all. Tend to agree with the average of the polls i.e C 40 Lab 29 which is the most likely result if Corbyn fights 2020. I would say the Labour range under JC is 25-33. He is possiblydoing OK in safe seats and giving Labour a small boost in certain safe Con seats at the expense of Greens/others due to PLPs being a bit moribund beforw but having no impact/a tiny negative impact in marginals. Of course the polls may not be accurate but the blue liberals seem caked in now which people like myself got wrong before the election.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 18, 2015 19:12:34 GMT
Interesting that this one put the Greens up on 5% and Ipsos-MORI put us on 6%. That's back up into #GreenSurge numbers. It would be nice to believe that's our new base vote, but I'm guessing it's a temporary blip due to the Paris Climate Conference putting Green issues in the news.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 18, 2015 19:27:50 GMT
Interesting that this one put the Greens up on 5% and Ipsos-MORI put us on 6%. That's back up into #GreenSurge numbers. It would be nice to believe that's our new base vote, but I'm guessing it's a temporary blip due to the Paris Climate Conference putting Green issues in the news. Looking at polls, we haven't dropped that much, only around 1-2% (in polling terms) in the last few months. I would have expected more after Corbyn won. Considering the fact we get barely any media, it's the middle of an election cycle etc, have we actually lost significant support to Labour exclusively because of Corbyn? If you think we haven't, why?
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 18, 2015 20:02:55 GMT
Interesting that this one put the Greens up on 5% and Ipsos-MORI put us on 6%. That's back up into #GreenSurge numbers. It would be nice to believe that's our new base vote, but I'm guessing it's a temporary blip due to the Paris Climate Conference putting Green issues in the news. Looking at polls, we haven't dropped that much, only around 1-2% (in polling terms) in the last few months. I would have expected more after Corbyn won. Considering the fact we get barely any media, it's the middle of an election cycle etc, have we actually lost significant support to Labour exclusively because of Corbyn? If you think we haven't, why? We've been fairly consistently at 3% in post-election polls, and I'd attribute that drop since the election primarily to Green voters going over to Corbyn. We were usually polling at 2-3% pre-surge (more often 2, IIRC), so post-election polling before these two suggested we'd lost a fair chunk of the surge voters, but not all of them.
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Post by justin124 on Jan 16, 2016 20:53:59 GMT
No change in this month's ComRes Online poll for IOS and Sunday Mirror.
Con 40 Lab 29 LibDem 7 UKIP 16.
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Post by marksenior on Jan 16, 2016 22:59:47 GMT
No change in this month's ComRes Online poll for IOS and Sunday Mirror. Con 40 Lab 29 LibDem 7 UKIP 16. An online poll which shows that the sample bears no relation to reality . 20% of the sample voted UKIP last May and 87% of the sample say they voted . The first rule of polling is to obtain a sample as close as possible to the population as a whole
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Pimpernal
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A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Jan 17, 2016 9:07:33 GMT
No change in this month's ComRes Online poll for IOS and Sunday Mirror. Con 40 Lab 29 LibDem 7 UKIP 16. An online poll which shows that the sample bears no relation to reality . 20% of the sample voted UKIP last May and 87% of the sample say they voted . The first rule of polling is to obtain a sample as close as possible to the population as a whole From my own experience I have found quite a few people who say they voted UKIP last year but who seem to have forgotten that they have already confessed to having swapped back at the last minute to the Conservatives...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2016 10:00:38 GMT
Now I have done a breakdown of the latest comres polling HEREHeadline rate CON 35% LAB 30% Now as I was looking thru the data tables I had to do a double take to make sure the headline rate was correct as each table had LAB 30% CON 28% Now understandably this includes DK, likely hood to vote etc to be factored in But even when asking DK if it was a legal requirement to vote Labour led that as well. How can you have such a swing, I would have expected at the least Labour to go up 1 or 2 % points So a 32% each would have been feasable but not just no movement for them and 7% increase for the Conservatives.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2016 10:41:30 GMT
New to ComedyResults, then?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2016 17:27:16 GMT
New to ComedyResults, then? Would be interesting to see their workings out as per weighting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 12:04:24 GMT
ComRes pretty much openly fiddle their numbers now, though they pretend they have made "weighting adjustments".
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 18, 2016 12:11:01 GMT
ComRes pretty much openly fiddle their numbers now, though they pretend they have made "weighting adjustments". 'Weighting' is by nature a form of fiddling and it always has been.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 13:12:47 GMT
While this is true, there is a difference between weighting in pursuit of demographic balance and weighting to "correct" "wrong" answers as ComRes is basically now doing with its turnout weighting.
It may be that this fiddling makes polls a more accurate predictor of election outcomes, but it is questionable whether polls should seek to be predictive in this way.
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