|
Post by johnloony on Mar 16, 2012 10:13:17 GMT
I predict
Lab 13,800 Con 5,700 LD 1,400 UKIP 1,200 Respect 500 Green 400 Dem Nat 200 OMRLP 100
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,862
|
Post by Pimpernal on Mar 16, 2012 10:25:10 GMT
The battle for third place will be interesting... the Dem Nats could have done with naffing orf though!
Realistically, it should be a Galloway / LD / UKIP battle imho...
Anyone able to paste the 2010 result in a nice format?
|
|
|
Post by simoncooke on Mar 16, 2012 17:04:51 GMT
Bradford council is a fucking disgrace This is better that our normal election performance!
|
|
|
Post by BossMan on Mar 16, 2012 17:33:34 GMT
Anyone able to paste the 2010 result in a nice format? Party | Candidate | Votes | Vote % | Labour | Marsha Singh | 18,401 | 45.3% | Conservative | Zahid Iqbal | 12,638 | 31.1% | Liberal Democrat | David Hall-Matthews | 4,732 | 11.7% | BNP | Jenny Sampson | 1,370 | 3.4% | Respect | Arshad Ali | 1,245 | 3.1% | Green | David Ford | 940 | 2.3% | UKIP | Jason Smith | 812 | 2.0% | Democratic Nationalists | Neil Craig | 438 | 1.1% |
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2012 10:39:38 GMT
is there a respect party anyway ? Yes. It's still registered, with Salma as leader and George as Nominating Officer. The alternative ballot paper descriptions are: [tr]Respect [/tr] Respect (George Galloway) Respect - Save The NHS Respect - People Not Profit Respect - Homes For All Respect - Peace, Justice, Equality Respect - George Galloway for Glasgow Respect (George Galloway) – Anti Cuts Alliance George Galloway (Respect) – Anti Cuts Coalition George Galloway (Respect) – Coalition Against Cuts[/tr] [/table]
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Mar 17, 2012 17:12:42 GMT
to be contested very quickly on the 29th March, a new trend for labour to do this. why not wait until May, prob because the LE campaign will start the same week so a nice labour victory will boost morale. Getting by-elections out of the way quickly is possibly more desirable. I don't have stats (I bet someone here does) but ISTR a theory that the longer the delay between the vacancy and polling day, the more likely the seat is to fall. It makes sense for Labour to minimise things in opposition so in government a quick poll looks the norm and not an expediency. Also bear in mind that this is a seat where Labour has had against the trend swings in the past (in 1997 it swung to the Conservatives; the only other case was Bethnal Green & Bow, both due to ethnic factors) and it could be vulnerable if they once again screw up candidate selection and alternatives have time to establish themselves.
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Mar 17, 2012 17:23:29 GMT
Bradford tweeted the link a few hours ago, after being asked for it yesterday afternoon... As well as Galloway's address, I love his use of the description "Respect (George Galloway)" for the extra ego points. It may not just be ego issues but also a belief that having the party's most prominent figure explicitly named will get extra votes. Small parties often find their main figure has a larger profile and recognition than the party brand so need to milk the figure for what they can. Galloway is not the first to do this - IIRC "Ian Paisley", "Alex Salmond", "Patrick Harvie" and "Paddy Ashdown" have all appeared in party descriptions over the years, even if the men themselves have been the candidate(s).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2012 18:00:20 GMT
to be contested very quickly on the 29th March, a new trend for labour to do this. why not wait until May, prob because the LE campaign will start the same week so a nice labour victory will boost morale. Getting by-elections out of the way quickly is possibly more desirable. I don't have stats (I bet someone here does) but ISTR a theory that the longer the delay between the vacancy and polling day, the more likely the seat is to fall. It makes sense for Labour to minimise things in opposition so in government a quick poll looks the norm and not an expediency. Also bear in mind that this is a seat where Labour has had against the trend swings in the past (in 1997 it swung to the Conservatives; the only other case was Bethnal Green & Bow, both due to ethnic factors) and it could be vulnerable if they once again screw up candidate selection and alternatives have time to establish themselves. well we never, the candidate that won was the one everyone wanted and predicted, will make a prediction closer to the time but suspect could be another very good by election night for us
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,379
|
Post by Crimson King on Mar 20, 2012 7:26:02 GMT
Leaflet watch - I had addressed Freepost from Lib Dem and Con yesterday, My sprog had one from Labour. I dont expect to get any hand delivered stuff
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,379
|
Post by Crimson King on Mar 21, 2012 18:02:18 GMT
leaflet watch - unaddressed freepost from Respect(Galloway) and Democratic Nationalist.
noticed that the Tory leaflet said that she would be "a strong Local voice for Allerton, Clayton, Daisy Hill, Fairweather Green, Heaton and Thornton. I will assume there is another leaflet claiming something similar for Manningham, Girlington, Listerhills, City centre delivered in those areas
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 21, 2012 18:06:47 GMT
Why bother with those areas? The voters there will only vote for a Conservative if its one of their own
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 23, 2012 12:26:24 GMT
This campaign seems to have gone relatively quiet.
Anyone know if Survation are going to do a byelection poll?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2012 14:07:23 GMT
Results in Bradford West from 1983 - 2010
|
|
|
Post by kvasir on Mar 23, 2012 14:40:12 GMT
The dip we see in 1997 is due to a selection issue linked to the previous MP which is no longer a factor. The local party have come together strongly behind one candidate.
The dip we see in 2005 is due to the Iraq issue which was reasonably prominant in that particular seat and as the issue dropped down on people's priority list we are seeing a rebound in 2010.
It seems likely Labour will do well here, possibly probably better than 2001 if I may be permitted to be so bold. Such a strong result will definately get good play in the media.
[An intersting if useless exercise dok, would be to use the local election results each year and see how the change on the same type of graph.]
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2012 15:10:49 GMT
love that graph !
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 23, 2012 15:38:06 GMT
The dip we see in 1997 is due to a selection issue linked to the previous MP which is no longer a factor. The local party have come together strongly behind one candidate. The dip we see in 2005 is due to the Iraq issue which was reasonably prominant in that particular seat and as the issue dropped down on people's priority list we are seeing a rebound in 2010. It seems likely Labour will do well here, possibly probably better than 2001 if I may be permitted to be so bold. Such a strong result will definately get good play in the media. [An intersting if useless exercise dok, would be to use the local election results each year and see how the change on the same type of graph.] Predicting that they do better than in 2001 is not particularly bold to be honest considering that they still did worse in 2001 than in 1987 or 1992. they should certainly get in the high 50s in this byelection and be at least 30% ahead of the Conservatives. You couldn't reasonably spin anything else as a strong result, but whatever - extrapolating from here to nationally would be foolish anyway as the erratic results from the last few GEs show
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,379
|
Post by Crimson King on Mar 25, 2012 22:47:40 GMT
Clearly everybody thinks this is a really boring shoe-in for Labour, so what do we need to liven things up - step forward Mr Galloway. I can report that there are a large number of Respect/Galloway posters in prominent positions aronfd the place, most notably on the back of a building overlooking the city park and so prominently visible from the opening off said splendid construction. They appear to be mainly on inhabited buildings, which is not the position in more cases for the large labour posters - though labour appear to have more garden stakeboards.
All this may mean little, but it does seem the assumption that the Pakistani community were solidly united behind Labour (as appeared to be the case in the Locals) is not enterely to be relied on
|
|
|
Post by stepney on Mar 26, 2012 7:54:03 GMT
noticed that the Tory leaflet said that she would be "a strong Local voice for Allerton, Clayton, Daisy Hill, Fairweather Green, Heaton and Thornton. I will assume there is another leaflet claiming something similar for Manningham, Girlington, Listerhills, City centre delivered in those areas Lo and behold.
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,379
|
Post by Crimson King on Mar 26, 2012 7:59:39 GMT
thanks for that, It would have been silly not to use the freepost.
I bet the "In Touch" going out there didn't have the entire front devoted to clamping down on immigration like the Thornton one.
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,379
|
Post by Crimson King on Mar 26, 2012 8:09:19 GMT
Post just arrived. 2nd freepost from Lab, Con, Ukip and Lib Dem (I know the last envelope is from Lib Dem even though it's addressed to the sprog, because I stuffed it myself!)
|
|