|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 11, 2019 11:14:23 GMT
After the last election showed a big change during the course of the campaign, and given the increasing disconnection between social class and voting intention, I wonder if it's becoming increasingly likely that people only make up their minds how to vote at a late stage. So the period during which opinion polls are 'current' is rapidly diminishing, especially in the middle of election campaigns.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,309
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 11, 2019 11:22:58 GMT
And how are "ex-industrial towns" defined exactly?
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 11, 2019 18:10:06 GMT
And how are "ex-industrial towns" defined exactly? "Lads, does VoteUK still have that list of football clubs and their constituencies? Nick that and make something up".
|
|
|
YouGov
Nov 12, 2019 17:23:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 12, 2019 17:23:51 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
YouGov
Nov 12, 2019 17:30:57 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2019 17:30:57 GMT
Caveat (via Matt Singh) - YouGov puts Con ahead 42-28, taking into account the Brexit Party not standing in Con seats. Under the old methodology, Con would have been 13 points ahead, so on an apples-to-apples basis, no change from its last poll.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,809
|
YouGov
Nov 12, 2019 19:09:45 GMT
Post by jamie on Nov 12, 2019 19:09:45 GMT
Way out of line with all of the others except Opinium Deltapoll have the Conservatives up 12.
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 12, 2019 19:10:31 GMT
Way out of line with all of the others except Opinium Good. It's time pollsters learnt to embrace the publishing of outliers.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,809
|
Post by jamie on Nov 12, 2019 21:55:27 GMT
The Lib Dem slump looks to be overwhelmingly Labour voters coming with not much movement of Conservatives coming home.
|
|
|
YouGov
Nov 12, 2019 22:22:04 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 12, 2019 22:22:04 GMT
The Lib Dem slump looks to be overwhelmingly Labour voters coming with not much movement of Conservatives coming home. Plausible enough.
|
|
jimboo2017
Non-Aligned
Posts: 5,138
Member is Online
|
YouGov
Nov 13, 2019 0:37:49 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Nov 13, 2019 0:37:49 GMT
No, still standard practice as far s I know. I am advised that we now need a calling card with GDPR info on it to be given even when in (if any data has been collected) so I think most people combine the two. I was tempted to throw our GDPR calling cards in the bin. Utter rot the whole thing. We should scrap it if we ever do leave Hand out GDR cards and watch the fireworks
|
|
|
YouGov
Nov 13, 2019 11:36:55 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Nov 13, 2019 11:36:55 GMT
I just ignore such rubbish.
|
|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 14, 2019 10:10:37 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,309
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 14, 2019 10:19:05 GMT
Presumably this is using the now pretty discredited ABC1C2DE categorisations - when the "working class" ranks are stuffed with well off pensioners?
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Nov 14, 2019 10:22:41 GMT
Presumably this is using the now pretty discredited ABC1C2DE categorisations - when the "working class" ranks are stuffed with well off pensioners? The..... "...now pretty discredited..." Which means it served us once but now provides the wrong sort of answer so must be deeply flawed.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,309
Member is Online
|
YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 10:23:58 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Nov 14, 2019 10:23:58 GMT
No, it means what it says. As any vaguely reputable social scientist could easily explain.
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Nov 14, 2019 10:39:21 GMT
No, it means what it says. As any vaguely reputable social scientist could easily explain. But, finding one might prove to be quite difficult!
|
|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 14, 2019 10:40:59 GMT
Presumably this is using the now pretty discredited ABC1C2DE categorisations - when the "working class" ranks are stuffed with well off pensioners? The thing is though, you can't really deny there's a shift going on. Labour is abandoning the working class for the middle class university towns and inner cities. Thing is, I don't get why you're giving many of us on the right what we've always wanted, an alliance between the upper class shires and the working classes. A true coalition of the socially conservative right.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,809
|
Post by jamie on Nov 14, 2019 11:21:16 GMT
Presumably this is using the now pretty discredited ABC1C2DE categorisations - when the "working class" ranks are stuffed with well off pensioners? You wouldn't be suggesting that upstanding academics among many, many others would use incredibly misleading and faulty statistics to make points that serve their own narrative and priors?
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,809
|
Post by jamie on Nov 14, 2019 12:04:04 GMT
By way of example of the problems with using ABC1C2DE as indistinguishable from class, heres the 3 most recent Survation polls with cross-tabs for party support by income:
Party - Under £20000/£20000-£40000/Over £40000 Con - 27%/36%/36% 29%/40%/31% 18%/36%/34% Lab - 38%/27%/29% 33%/25%/23% 38%/23%/19% LD - 9%/16%/21% 10%/14%/28% 15%/16%/27%
As with all this stuff take cross-tabs with a heavy dose of salt, but they suggest that the Labour party is particularly strong among low income voters (some may call them working class) while the Tories and Lib Dems are relatively weaker. The Lib Dems seem particularly popular among high income voters (the middle class). Interestingly, and these are just a few cross-tabs, but there doesn't appear to be much difference in voting between people on middle and upper incomes for Labour and the Conservatives (with the caveat that the sub-sample is quite jumpy).
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,233
|
Post by Sibboleth on Nov 14, 2019 13:36:11 GMT
Basically:
a) the MRS 'social grade' system was faulty even in the 1970s and is a complete disaster now; it in no way reflects the realities of a service sector economy with a very large elderly population (it is true, by the way, pensioners are routinely rolled into category DE). I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before.
b) even were this not so, YouGov's peculiar polling methods happen to make their internal numbers completely worthless anyway. It's some real voodoo nonsense.
c) even were this not so, different polling firms internals show very different figures and patterns, not just from YouGov but from each other.
d) this actually takes us back to a) because there are serious issues with sampling for some of the categories, particularly C2 which is a notorious disaster.
e) even were all of this not so, poll internals are not polls or surveys themselves, but a way of making sure that the poll was conducted with an appropriately balanced sample. The way they are thrown around by people who know this but have commercial reasons to ignore that fact amounts to the pollution of public discourse.
f) you wouldn't give your bank details to a 'Nigerian Prince', you don't believe anything hawked by Matthew Badwin.
|
|