Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2019 1:11:32 GMT
Might want to try cooking up a new set of numbers for the next poll.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2019 1:13:51 GMT
Might want to try cooking up a new set of numbers for the next poll. YouGov did get the Euros almost right, but it's fair to say that if BxP really were leading the pack by as much as YouGov say they are, they should have been on course for a better result in Peterborough.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jun 7, 2019 1:33:34 GMT
Nice while it lasted.
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YouGov
Jun 7, 2019 1:40:33 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2019 1:40:33 GMT
Incidentally, BxP and Grn are now prompted for in the initial prompt by YouGov, instead of in the 'others' section, a realm occupied only by ChUK and UKIP now. Are the nationalist parties included in the initial prompt (for Scottish and Welsh responses)? They end up in the 'other' category in polls that aren't specific to Scotland or Wales.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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YouGov
Jun 7, 2019 6:46:27 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Jun 7, 2019 6:46:27 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
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YouGov
Jun 7, 2019 7:06:09 GMT
Post by mboy on Jun 7, 2019 7:06:09 GMT
Yes, those of us who remember the pain of 2010 were expecting this, but I wonder what our new equilibrium level will be? It might will be high teens, which would still represent a huge boost for us going forward.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 7, 2019 7:28:31 GMT
Yes, those of us who remember the pain of 2010 were expecting this, but I wonder what our new equilibrium level will be? It might will be high teens, which would still represent a huge boost for us going forward. Depending on whether or not your targeting is as effective as it was pre-2010, a result in the high teens could easily put you back up to Kennedy-era seat levels, particularly if Labour and the Tories were both under 30%, as they probably would be in such a scenario.
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mboy
Liberal
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YouGov
Jun 7, 2019 7:43:21 GMT
Post by mboy on Jun 7, 2019 7:43:21 GMT
Indeed, in 1997 we got 46 seats from 17.6%.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 7, 2019 8:21:23 GMT
Indeed, in 1997 we got 46 seats from 17.6%. In 1997 the Liberal Democrats made massive seat gains despite losing national share of the vote. It was partly by effective targeting but mostly because Liberal Democrat targets are primarily from the Conservatives and the Conservative vote had fallen nationally. By contrast, over 2001-2010 the Labour vote fell substantially but the Liberal Democrats made relatively few gains. The key driver for the number of Lib Dem seats is the gap between Conservative and Liberal Democrat in national voting intention.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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YouGov
Jun 7, 2019 10:15:21 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2019 10:15:21 GMT
Might want to try cooking up a new set of numbers for the next poll. YouGov did get the Euros almost right, but it's fair to say that if BxP really were leading the pack by as much as YouGov say they are, they should have been on course for a better result in Peterborough. LibDem and Labour figures yes*, but they significantly overstated Brexit Party support. After prompting for them as they have started doing for GEs now. (* the caveat is that they finished their polling a few days before the elections, so they might have understated Labour by more *at the time*)
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2019 11:55:25 GMT
There's an image here from yougov demonstrating the changes by prompt type across three recent polls. I'm not sure the middle poll (no prompts for any party) has been published before.
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rc18
Non-Aligned
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YouGov
Jun 7, 2019 12:49:37 GMT
Post by rc18 on Jun 7, 2019 12:49:37 GMT
Besides unless you're doing this over the same time period it's meaningless as there may have been actual changes in VI in the wake of the European elections and by-election coverage.
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Post by carolus on Jun 14, 2019 10:16:36 GMT
I make that: BXP 26 (n/c) LD 22 (+2)
Lab 19 (-1) Con 17 (-1) Grn 8 (-1) SNP 4 PC 1 The party formerly known as change uk - the independent group 1 UKIP 0
Edit: corrected changes to the most recent poll (5-6 june)
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mboy
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2019 11:11:35 GMT
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Post by mboy on Jun 14, 2019 11:11:35 GMT
That's a remarkable poll - far from the yellow tide receding, it's consolidating! Some good news re Chukka should even help that, but when the new PM is elected it will shake things up again.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2019 12:45:09 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2019 12:45:09 GMT
BXP 310 LDEM 71 LAB 169 CON 22 GRN 1
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2019 15:13:00 GMT
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 14, 2019 15:13:00 GMT
BXP 310 LDEM 71 LAB 169 CON 22 GRN 1 Who would the remaining 22 Conservatives be?
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2019 15:59:59 GMT
Post by pepperminttea on Jun 14, 2019 15:59:59 GMT
BXP 310 LDEM 71 LAB 169 CON 22 GRN 1 Who would the remaining 22 Conservatives be? Probably well off 'true blue' exurban seats that are relatively 50/50 Leave/Remain where the Lib Dems have never done particularly well e.g. Beaconsfield, Hertsmere, Surrey Heath etc.
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2019 16:07:39 GMT
Post by pepperminttea on Jun 14, 2019 16:07:39 GMT
That's a remarkable poll - far from the yellow tide receding, it's consolidating! Some good news re Chukka should even help that, but when the new PM is elected it will shake things up again. YouGov does seem to be finding significantly higher Lib Dem and Brexit vote shares than other pollsters though and much lower Labour and Conservative shares. I wonder why this is and who's right? I tend to think the non-YouGov polllsters are closer to the truth as whilst I can just believe the Tories have dropped into the teens primarily due to direct switches to the Brexit Party, Labour's core vote is more solid and thus I suspect they are still comfortably in the 20s.
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mboy
Liberal
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2019 16:17:49 GMT
Post by mboy on Jun 14, 2019 16:17:49 GMT
Well in the Euros it was Yougov who got very close...
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Post by BossMan on Jun 14, 2019 16:22:24 GMT
I make that: BXP 26 (n/c) LD 22 (+2)
Lab 19 (-1) Con 17 (-1) Grn 8 (-1) SNP 4 PC 1 The party formerly known as change uk - the independent group 1 UKIP 0
Edit: corrected changes to the most recent poll (5-6 june) They've still got an "Other" bar in that chart, but showing more than the top three is a start.
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