andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2018 7:48:32 GMT
In Bude, if you add the Conservative/ Ex Conservative Independent together, ( not completely unrealistic to do!) the result is very similar to 2017
Lib Dem 53.2% (+1) Ind/ Con 38.9% (+0.8) Lab 7.8% (-1.9)
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 24, 2018 9:06:18 GMT
In Bude, East Hertfordshire and to a lesser extent, North Warwickshire, the Conservative candidates lived some way away from the ward, and their main opponents lived in the ward. That does matter in some wards, so I would be tempted to say that is the significant factor rather than anything else. I was tempted to predict a Lib Dem gain in Hertfordshire on the basis of a local Lib Dem candidate and a Conservative candidate from some miles away, but the sheer weight of history of Conservative voting dissuaded me. It was certainly possible though. Yes, it is tempting to say "voters in Hertfordshire yearned for the opportunity to vote for a Lib Dem councillor after more than 40 years of having no such opportunity"
But I am sure that the reality is that the Lib Dem candidate lives locally, the Tory did not, and she is probably well known locally. In these small wards it makes all the difference
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 24, 2018 9:24:33 GMT
In Bude, East Hertfordshire and to a lesser extent, North Warwickshire, the Conservative candidates lived some way away from the ward, and their main opponents lived in the ward. That does matter in some wards, so I would be tempted to say that is the significant factor rather than anything else. I was tempted to predict a Lib Dem gain in Hertfordshire on the basis of a local Lib Dem candidate and a Conservative candidate from some miles away, but the sheer weight of history of Conservative voting dissuaded me. It was certainly possible though. Yes, it is tempting to say "voters in Hertfordshire yearned for the opportunity to vote for a Lib Dem councillor after more than 40 years of having no such opportunity"
But I am sure that the reality is that the Lib Dem candidate lives locally, the Tory did not, and she is probably well known locally. In these small wards it makes all the difference
It may be *a* factor, but a firmly Tory area like East Herts should be expected to stay with the Tories come what may, shouldn't it?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2018 9:28:44 GMT
Last night was the Conservatives highest vote share in Bromborough since 1992.
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 24, 2018 9:31:03 GMT
Yes, it is tempting to say "voters in Hertfordshire yearned for the opportunity to vote for a Lib Dem councillor after more than 40 years of having no such opportunity" But I am sure that the reality is that the Lib Dem candidate lives locally, the Tory did not, and she is probably well known locally. In these small wards it makes all the difference
It may be *a* factor, but a firmly Tory area like East Herts should be expected to stay with the Tories come what may, shouldn't it? Single member wards with electorates around 2,000 are very prone to change hands at by-elections irrespective of which party was the incumbent.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2018 9:35:41 GMT
North Cornwall has a good claim to be Labour's consistently worst seat in Britain. The party has never yet bettered the 16% of the vote obtained in the 1950s. Although other seats have from time to time been the actual worst at that particular time (Westmorland & Lonsdale recently, and longer ago the Isle of Wight). 1979 - Cornwall N 1983 - Isle of Wight 1987 - Surrey SW 1992 - Eastbourne 1997 - Newbury 2001 - Winchester 2005 - possibly Newbury again? 2010 - Westmorland/Lonsdale 2015 - ? (some Scottish seat I think) 2017 - Richmond Park A byelection in the previous parliament is the link with several of those.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2018 9:39:03 GMT
In Bude, East Hertfordshire and to a lesser extent, North Warwickshire, the Conservative candidates lived some way away from the ward, and their main opponents lived in the ward. That does matter in some wards, so I would be tempted to say that is the significant factor rather than anything else. I was tempted to predict a Lib Dem gain in Hertfordshire on the basis of a local Lib Dem candidate and a Conservative candidate from some miles away, but the sheer weight of history of Conservative voting dissuaded me. It was certainly possible though. Yes, it is tempting to say "voters in Hertfordshire yearned for the opportunity to vote for a Lib Dem councillor after more than 40 years of having no such opportunity"
But I am sure that the reality is that the Lib Dem candidate lives locally, the Tory did not, and she is probably well known locally. In these small wards it makes all the difference
yeah I wouldn't go that far. I dont know East Herts all that well but if it's anything like the rest of Hertfordshire its less of a yearn and return to pre coalition days. Perhaps not so much in East Herts where the Tories dominate and perhaps the Lib Dems arent at full strength as they were in 2010. But their vote almost doubled in May across the county
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2018 9:49:33 GMT
Yes, it is tempting to say "voters in Hertfordshire yearned for the opportunity to vote for a Lib Dem councillor after more than 40 years of having no such opportunity"
But I am sure that the reality is that the Lib Dem candidate lives locally, the Tory did not, and she is probably well known locally. In these small wards it makes all the difference
It may be *a* factor, but a firmly Tory area like East Herts should be expected to stay with the Tories come what may, shouldn't it? IF it was the case, and it is an if, I always find it quite refreshing if a ‘safe’ area for any party votes for another party at a local election on the basis that they have a candidate who would be the better local councillor. I suspect there is the odd Conservative member in Liverpool or Labour member in East Hertfordshire who would make better councillors than some of the dominant parties councillors in those areas. Of course living in the ward, does not always mean that person will be the better councillor!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2018 9:56:45 GMT
I think the relatively poor Labour result is down to Wirral council not being any great shakes. Exciting to have a by election in one's home village (though my bit of Bromborough is in Clatterbridge ward) particularly when it has the result out of step with the others this evening... I did note that our results there earlier this year were a tad underwhelming. Maybe this could be one to watch in the coming years.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2018 9:59:41 GMT
r.e. East Herts: Candidate lived in the ward, there was no real opposition on the council, and if it's anything like most of the country, the council is probably coming across as being in poor form, not necessarily due to a fault of themselves but due to massive underfunding of local government. Put the effort in, and that's a perfect formula to winning a council seat. The margin was still very impressive, of course.
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 24, 2018 9:59:50 GMT
1979 - Cornwall N 1983 - Isle of Wight 1987 - Surrey SW 1992 - Eastbourne 1997 - Newbury 2001 - Winchester 2005 - possibly Newbury again? 2010 - Westmorland/Lonsdale 2015 - ? (some Scottish seat I think) 2017 - Richmond Park A byelection in the previous parliament is the link with several of those. Richmond Park is the worst? 9.1% is quite a high figure for the weakest seat in Britain. Twickenham is only 0.1% ahead of us. I'd have thought there'd be at least one somewhere which is worse than that, though I confess I haven't found it at this point. Perhaps there isn't. Eastbourne: 8.1% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk was also lower than Richmond Park. In 2015 I think it was West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. North Cornwall, though, was the lowest in England.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2018 10:01:26 GMT
North Cornwall has a good claim to be Labour's consistently worst seat in Britain. The party has never yet bettered the 16% of the vote obtained in the 1950s. Although other seats have from time to time been the actual worst at that particular time (Westmorland & Lonsdale recently, and longer ago the Isle of Wight). North Cornwall is the only constituency that has existed (in some form) since 1945 or before, but has never had Labour in the top two candidates. North Dorset was a second example until last year.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2018 10:03:44 GMT
Richmond Park is the worst? 9.1% is quite a high figure for the weakest seat in Britain. Twickenham is only 0.1% ahead of us. I'd have thought there'd be at least one somewhere which is worse than that, though I confess I haven't found it at this point. Perhaps there isn't. Eastbourne: 8.1% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk was also lower than Richmond Park. In 2015 I think it was West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. North Cornwall, though, was the lowest in England. Ah, thanks for that. Newbury is correct for 2005?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 24, 2018 10:24:15 GMT
I think the relatively poor Labour result is down to Wirral council not being any great shakes. Exciting to have a by election in one's home village (though my bit of Bromborough is in Clatterbridge ward) particularly when it has the result out of step with the others this evening... I did note that our results there earlier this year were a tad underwhelming. Maybe this could be one to watch in the coming years. Yes, probably no danger of Labour losing their majority quite yet as most of their seats have very comfortable margins but if a few do switch next year where they're defending smaller majorities (Pensby & Thingwall, Prenton) and their one in a split ward (Oxton) and some other majorities get tighter it could be an interesting 2020. Their problem is that they're in the sights of the Greens, Lib Dems and the Tories in at least one ward, so have to defend on multiple fronts.
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 24, 2018 10:25:01 GMT
North Cornwall has a good claim to be Labour's consistently worst seat in Britain. The party has never yet bettered the 16% of the vote obtained in the 1950s. Although other seats have from time to time been the actual worst at that particular time (Westmorland & Lonsdale recently, and longer ago the Isle of Wight). 1979 - Cornwall N 1983 - Isle of Wight 1987 - Surrey SW 1992 - Eastbourne 1997 - Newbury 2001 - Winchester 2005 - possibly Newbury again? 2010 - Westmorland/Lonsdale 2015 - ? (some Scottish seat I think) 2017 - Richmond Park A byelection in the previous parliament is the link with several of those. 1945 - Hammersmith North 10.7% 1950 - Dorset North 13.6% 1951 - Dorset North 8.0% 1955 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1959 - Cornwall North 9.5% 1964 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1966 - Cornwall North 7.0% 1970 - Cornwall North 4.3% 1974F - Cornwall North 3.9% 1974O - Cornwall North 6.4% 1979 - Cornwall North 3.2% 1983 - Isle of Wight 2.4% 1987 - Surrey SW 5.6% 1992 - Eastbourne 4.6% 1997 - Newbury 5.5% 2001 - Winchester 5.9% 2005 - Newbury 5.9% 2010 - Westmorland 2.2% 2015 - Aberdeenshire West 4.5% (in England Cornwall North 5.4%) 2017 - Eastbourne 8.1%
2017 was the "highest lowest" since 1964, which reinforces the point that quite a lot of Labour voters who had lent their votes to The Liberals, have been put off by the coalition.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 24, 2018 10:31:11 GMT
In Bude, if you add the Conservative/ Ex Conservative Independent together, ( not completely unrealistic to do!) the result is very similar to 2017 Lib Dem 53.2% (+1) Ind/ Con 38.9% (+0.8) Lab 7.8% (-1.9) Yes, not completely unrealistic to do, of course, and interesting to see it set out like that, but I do repeat that I expect the Independent to take some of the flakier Lib Dem votes that might not have gone to the Conservative but would prefer an alleged non-party person. A swing of say 1% in these circumstances might have been somewhat bigger, say 5-6%, against a single straightforward Conservative opponent. That would be a more realistic assessment than taking the apparent Con>LD swing ignoring the Indy, which would be over 12%
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2018 10:45:32 GMT
In Bude, if you add the Conservative/ Ex Conservative Independent together, ( not completely unrealistic to do!) the result is very similar to 2017 Lib Dem 53.2% (+1) Ind/ Con 38.9% (+0.8) Lab 7.8% (-1.9) Yes, not completely unrealistic to do, of course, and interesting to see it set out like that, but I do repeat that I expect the Independent to take some of the flakier Lib Dem votes that might not have gone to the Conservative but would prefer an alleged non-party person. A swing of say 1% in these circumstances might have been somewhat bigger, say 5-6%, against a single straightforward Conservative opponent. That would be a more realistic assessment than taking the apparent Con>LD swing ignoring the Indy, which would be over 12% Completely agree. I would expect someone who i think had been the mayor of the town, would have picked up some Lib Dem votes, either from those who prefer an Independent and/ or were unaware of him being a Conservative previously.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 24, 2018 13:52:47 GMT
Hammersmith North sticks out like a sore thumb there doesn't it. Of course it was won by Labour Independent, and Moscow apologist, D.N.Pritt. Other than when the constituency was split up during the Blair/Brown years, and the Tories won Hammersmith & Fulham in 2005, it's been Labour ever since, and the majority is very large now. It seems fairly clear that Alderman Church was selected at the last minute in 1945 and didn't really have much of a chance to campaign - although Herbert Morrison did speak for him on 21 June. As in Bradford West in 2012, Labour might have had lots of material ready to hit the Conservatives, but nothing to beat a challenge from the left. Also if you read his biography here, Church was 69 at the time of the election. Note that Labour also did very poorly against ILP candidates in Glasgow in the 1930s.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 24, 2018 14:34:47 GMT
Yes, it is tempting to say "voters in Hertfordshire yearned for the opportunity to vote for a Lib Dem councillor after more than 40 years of having no such opportunity"
But I am sure that the reality is that the Lib Dem candidate lives locally, the Tory did not, and she is probably well known locally. In these small wards it makes all the difference
yeah I wouldn't go that far. I dont know East Herts all that well but if it's anything like the rest of Hertfordshire its less of a yearn and return to pre coalition days. Perhaps not so much in East Herts where the Tories dominate and perhaps the Lib Dems arent at full strength as they were in 2010. But their vote almost doubled in May across the county Well, my point was that there had never even once been a Lib Dem (or Lib, it is so far back!) candidate since before 1973! Places like that a campaign is a real novelty and can make a big difference. I doubt if much campaigning happens there in General Elections either, although at least there would be a Lib Dem candidate
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 24, 2018 14:43:32 GMT
1979 - Cornwall N 1983 - Isle of Wight 1987 - Surrey SW 1992 - Eastbourne 1997 - Newbury 2001 - Winchester 2005 - possibly Newbury again? 2010 - Westmorland/Lonsdale 2015 - ? (some Scottish seat I think) 2017 - Richmond Park A byelection in the previous parliament is the link with several of those. 1945 - Hammersmith North 10.7% 1950 - Dorset North 13.6% 1951 - Dorset North 8.0% 1955 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1959 - Cornwall North 9.5% 1964 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1966 - Cornwall North 7.0% 1970 - Cornwall North 4.3% 1974F - Cornwall North 3.9% 1974O - Cornwall North 6.4% 1979 - Cornwall North 3.2% 1983 - Isle of Wight 2.4% 1987 - Surrey SW 5.6% 1992 - Eastbourne 4.6% 1997 - Newbury 5.5% 2001 - Winchester 5.9% 2005 - Newbury 5.9% 2010 - Westmorland 2.2% 2015 - Aberdeenshire West 4.5% (in England Cornwall North 5.4%) 2017 - Eastbourne 8.1%
2017 was the "highest lowest" since 1964, which reinforces the point that quite a lot of Labour voters who had lent their votes to The Liberals, have been put off by the coalition.
Well, it might show that were it not for the fact that in Eastbourne, the last time Labour got a national vote of over 40%, they got over 13%. It was a Con Vs LD marginal in 2001, just as now..
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