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Post by matureleft on Mar 23, 2024 9:03:52 GMT
And it’s a not unreasonable guess. There’ll be some Tory bounce back and Reform can’t maintain their rating through a campaign where the focus will be on the main parties. My own guess would show a lower Labour figure reflecting both a lower turnout, differentially weighted against Labour concentrated in safe seats, and some tactical voting.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 23, 2024 10:09:33 GMT
Not convinced that a lower turnout would impact most negatively on *Labour*, given the likely circumstances of this GE.
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Post by bigfatron on Mar 23, 2024 10:17:54 GMT
Not convinced that a lower turnout would impact most negatively on *Labour*, given the likely circumstances of this GE. I think the point is that a large ex-Tory abstention is already baked into these polls, so that may reverse a bit, whereas some Labour voters may feel that it is in the bag, especially in some very solid Labour seats, and stay at home.
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Post by robert1 on Mar 25, 2024 17:02:48 GMT
Con 26% +3 Lab 44% -2 LD 9% = Ref 11% -1 Grn 6% +1 SNP 3% +1
Fieldwork 22nd-25th March
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,077
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Mar 25, 2024 17:34:16 GMT
Bouncy castle time!
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,162
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Post by polupolu on Mar 25, 2024 18:13:37 GMT
Possibly more realistic than the recent YouGov poll.
According to Electoral Calculus (take with the appropriate amount of salt) that translates to: Lab 451 Con 121 LD 36 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 4 Lab majority 252
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 15, 2024 18:14:07 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Apr 22, 2024 16:47:43 GMT
LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 27% (+2) RFM: 12% (+1) LDM: 9% (=) GRN: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr. Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.
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