Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 1, 2019 22:17:13 GMT
The following directly elected AfD candidates aren't on the list:
Schaufel Frank (Vogtland 1) Thumm Thomas (Erzgebirge 3) Petzold Gudrun (Nordsachsen 3) Kuppi Lars (Mittelsachsen 4) Kirste Thomas (Meissen 3) Schreyer Timo (Bautzen 3) Schwietzer Doreen (Bautzen 4) Kuhnert Roberto (Goerlitz 1)
which would give them 38 seats? Vogtland 1, Nordschsen 3, Mittelsachsen 4, Bautzen 3 and Görlitz 1 have been won by the CDU according to the election site. www.wahlen.sachsen.de/LW_19.php
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 1, 2019 22:18:33 GMT
That's the Zweitstimme results, not Erststimme.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2019 22:19:06 GMT
The following directly elected AfD candidates aren't on the list:
Schaufel Frank (Vogtland 1) Thumm Thomas (Erzgebirge 3) Petzold Gudrun (Nordsachsen 3) Kuppi Lars (Mittelsachsen 4) Kirste Thomas (Meissen 3) Schreyer Timo (Bautzen 3) Schwietzer Doreen (Bautzen 4) Kuhnert Roberto (Goerlitz 1)
which would give them 38 seats? I do believe you are correct, old chap. The map on the Saxon Electoral Commission site only shows which party won the list vote in each constituency, which caused me to miscount the FPTP seats won by each party. The CDU are in fact only on 41 direct mandates rather than the 45 I stated earlier. Wahlrecht.de has the AfD on 38 too, which is usually pretty on the ball as a source. This means the result isn't as disproportionate as feared (though still slightly disadvantageous to the AfD).
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Post by greenhert on Sept 1, 2019 22:19:20 GMT
TV coverage didn't break down the ' sonstige Parteien' so it's good to know that it was mainly down to a decent performance by the animal protectionists there. The cut-off point for the electoral threshold was 63,252 votes. The FW received 63,879 on the list vote. Five different parties won direct mandates, which is pretty remarkable, but at the same time it shows what a crapshoot the Erststimme half of German elections are becoming. The Greens won Potsdam I by 144 votes. Die Linke came closest in Potsdam II but fell 760 votes behind the SPD. The CDU held Oberspreewald-Lausitz I by 95 votes over the SPD, in the absence of an AfD candidate. In the less right-inclined constituency of Havelland II, they won with just 22.3% thanks to a perfect split between the SPD in second place and a high-profile Green in third. And within Havelland II, the Greens were only 395 votes behind the CDU despite finishing in third place....
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2019 22:23:42 GMT
The CDU held Oberspreewald-Lausitz I by 95 votes over the SPD, in the absence of an AfD candidate. In the less right-inclined constituency of Havelland II, they won with just 22.3% thanks to a perfect split between the SPD in second place and a high-profile Green in third. And within Havelland II, the Greens were only 395 votes behind the CDU despite finishing in third place.... The Green there was Ursula Nonnemacher, who was one of the party's most prominent public faces in the election campaign.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 1, 2019 22:25:20 GMT
That's the Zweitstimme results, not Erststimme. Ouch. Apologies.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 2, 2019 0:03:49 GMT
Since today/yesterday AfD has in eastern EastGermany a strip from VorPommern to OberLausitz.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 2, 2019 6:08:39 GMT
Since today/yesterday AfD has in eastern EastGermany a strip from VorPommern to OberLausitz. East Elbia returns. Sorry, I didn't contribute last night, I was in a delightful Weinstube in Mainz drinking slightly too much white wine. The general opinion of the locals appeared to be "Ossis gonna Ossi".
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2019 6:58:32 GMT
Since today/yesterday AfD has in eastern EastGermany a strip from VorPommern to OberLausitz. East Elbia returns. Sorry, I didn't contribute last night, I was in a delightful Weinstube in Mainz drinking slightly too much white wine. The general opinion of the locals appeared to be "Ossis gonna Ossi". What an ironically Besserwessi attitude!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 2, 2019 9:26:58 GMT
Another non-sequitur from Goodman. People under 30 can be angry white men. He must have been using "angry white men" to mean "old angry white men". If that's what he meant, he should have said it in those terms (and then it might be a valid point, in the UK the hard right tends to be older voters - but that is certainly not true everywhere) Sloppy language is arguably especially remiss when coming from academics.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Sept 2, 2019 10:06:44 GMT
I think that clearly is what he meant, but Bish is right that an academic making a point like that needs to get it right...
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 2, 2019 15:43:25 GMT
It's all a bit bizarre, really. In Saxony the AfD got more votes and seats than SPD, Greens, and Linke together. It's like LibDem, Green, and Labour supporters voting Conservative to stop Farage.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 2, 2019 16:40:15 GMT
It's all a bit bizarre, really. In Saxony the AfD got more votes and seats than SPD, Greens, and Linke together. It's like LibDem, Green, and Labour supporters voting Conservative to stop Farage. Sibboleth 's earlier contribution did note the pattern, and it has been there since i became aware of German state elections. All very explainable, but less risky to have a native provide the full picture of the Landesvater myth rather than my neighbourly feelings. To not leave anyone in the dark though, the same mechanics that kept the pol below getting reelected are at work here, a distant relationship of the incumbent bonus in the UK. www.golem.de/1209/94347-42686-i_rc.jpgIn a sense its a strong indication that the East has managed to fully integrate the national collective subconscious by now.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 2, 2019 17:05:18 GMT
Two further observations on Brandenburg: an SPD-CDU-FW coalition, which doesn't even have a nickname among German political journalists yet, is technically possible with a majority of 2. Part of the appeal of the FW is meant to be that they have weaker party discipline, but going into coalition in Bavaria has probably dampened that trait slightly.
Secondly, the Greens overtook Die Linke on Zweitstimmen in the end (by all of 754 votes). This was contrary to all polls and estimates, including the projections on election night itself. Considering that the Green surge has dissipated nationally over the past couple of months, and it was never that strong in the east to begin with, that is quite remarkable. I suppose it was a case of the curse of the junior coalition partner for the left. Unexpectedly, both parties would now have equal weight in any Red-Red-Green coalition.
In Saxony, AfD are one seat short of what they should be entitled to. The Landtag is supposed to have a minimum of 120 seats and at present only has 119 members to fill them. (The previous one had 126 due to overhang compensation.)
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 2, 2019 18:43:10 GMT
East Elbia returns. Sorry, I didn't contribute last night, I was in a delightful Weinstube in Mainz drinking slightly too much white wine. The general opinion of the locals appeared to be "Ossis gonna Ossi". What an ironically Besserwessi attitude! Mainz is impressively bourgeois and utterly Bessiwessi. It's like a big Alty, half of them work in Bankfurt but sneer at it.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 2, 2019 19:27:23 GMT
You all certainly know, that You can find the ExitPolls of ForschungsgruppeWahlen at the site of ZDF and those of InfratestDimap at ARD. ARD's TagesThemen provides even MunicipalityMaps! (Butunfortunately i haven't found any with the swings/trends 2014-2019.)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2019 19:39:43 GMT
What an ironically Besserwessi attitude! Mainz is impressively bourgeois and utterly Bessiwessi. It's like a big Alty, half of them work in Bankfurt but sneer at it. I believe Darmstadt and Wiesbaden likewise.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2019 19:41:49 GMT
Two further observations on Brandenburg: an SPD-CDU-FW coalition, which doesn't even have a nickname among German political journalists yet Hopefully better than the ludicrous "Dänen-Ampel" of a few years ago, which was really pushing it.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 2, 2019 19:46:33 GMT
Two further observations on Brandenburg: an SPD-CDU-FW coalition, which doesn't even have a nickname among German political journalists yet Hopefully better than the ludicrous "Dänen-Ampel" of a few years ago, which was really pushing it. Yeah, the Schleswig-Holstein moniker doesn't really work for me. Danish traffic lights still only have the same three colours, right? All I can think of for the potential SPD-CDU-FW combination is 'GroKo+'.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 2, 2019 19:52:25 GMT
Mainz is impressively bourgeois and utterly Bessiwessi. It's like a big Alty, half of them work in Bankfurt but sneer at it. I believe Darmstadt and Wiesbaden likewise. Mannheim too, for the uber-elites who can afford to commute that little bit further. Um...
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