Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2020 20:52:15 GMT
And, of course, Protestants, who mostly hate FF with a passion. My own family votes solidly FG or, failing that, Labour. The phenomenon of elite ultra-liberalism in Ireland began when it was seen as a cost-free means of virtue-signalling. Addressing social problems costs money, and that has never been popular with the Irish middle classes, who tend to think the poor are reaping what they have sown. Exactly this has rumoured in my head: How much influence do these wealthy Leinster-Prots, who enrichened mankind with so many genial people, have within FG? In the economy, in culture and the media ("Irish Times")? In politics, very little. In culture they still have some influence, but it has long been declining. They were a remarkable people, far out of proportion to their numbers.
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Feb 10, 2020 20:53:54 GMT
Mr Moran narrowly missed out on the fourth seat in the end to incumbent Fianna Fail TD Robert Troy.
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Feb 10, 2020 20:55:52 GMT
Dublin South West's final count sees Katherine Zappone (Ind) lose her seat to the Greens' Francis Noel Duffy (husband of Catherine Martin TD). John Lahart (FF) was the other TD elected in this Dail constituency.
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Feb 10, 2020 20:59:18 GMT
Once again what's the difference between the Stickies and the Provos? The Stickies were the Official IRA, while the Provos were the Provisional IRA. Yes but what's the traditional difference between them? About twenty-five years. The Stickies entered government a quarter of a century ago...
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Feb 10, 2020 21:20:07 GMT
At this point, it is almost certain that Mary Lou McDonald will become the next Taoiseach, and the first woman to hold that office. Why do you think that? Martin is still far more likely to become Taoiseach.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2020 21:33:57 GMT
Another election SF full slate
|
|
|
Post by relique on Feb 10, 2020 21:35:47 GMT
At this point, it is almost certain that Mary Lou McDonald will become the next Taoiseach, and the first woman to hold that office. Why do you think that? Martin is still far more likely to become Taoiseach. I agree, though for Martin, I don't see how he will become Taoiseach... His party is down 8 seats and 2 points. He will never accept some kind of "rotating Taoiseach" deal with Sinn FΓ©in, and between with 37 and 38 I don't see how SF would accept to be viewed as the "junior party". They wouldn't, of course, accept some kind of confidence and supply (to support Martin, they'd ask for a lot of policies).
And I don't see either a grand coalition or a confidence and supply with FG. They would need 8-9 independents and I don't think there are that many independents willing to accept a FF-FG government...
Everything seems unlikely ! (And going back to the polls would probably only help SF)
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Feb 10, 2020 21:40:40 GMT
Has anyone got a list of which genepool each independent hails from?
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Feb 10, 2020 21:48:50 GMT
Why do you think that? Martin is still far more likely to become Taoiseach. I agree, though for Martin, I don't see how he will become Taoiseach... His party is down 8 seats and 2 points. He will never accept some kind of "rotating Taoiseach" deal with Sinn FΓ©in, and between with 37 and 38 I don't see how SF would accept to be viewed as the "junior party". They wouldn't, of course, accept some kind of confidence and supply (to support Martin, they'd ask for a lot of policies).
And I don't see either a grand coalition or a confidence and supply with FG. They would need 8-9 independents and I don't think there are that many independents willing to accept a FF-FG government...
Everything seems unlikely ! (And going back to the polls would probably only help SF) I think they'll be content to back a FF government for a while and then topple it at the right moment (whenever it decides to do something unpopular or is involved in a scandal), that way they will both seem responsible and be able to cash in later. FF is the party in the middle and its not possible to form a viable coalition without them, so they have a strong bargaining position and it's natural they get to lead any coalition they join. Position is often just as important as size in a multiparty system.
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Feb 10, 2020 22:04:18 GMT
At this point, it is almost certain that Mary Lou McDonald will become the next Taoiseach, and the first woman to hold that office. Why do you think that? Martin is still far more likely to become Taoiseach. Fianna Fail is likely to overtake Sinn Fein in seat numbers, but only by one seat, and that will not be enough for a stable coalition which would exclude Sinn Fein.
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Feb 10, 2020 22:08:15 GMT
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Feb 10, 2020 22:09:36 GMT
Why do you think that? Martin is still far more likely to become Taoiseach. Fianna Fail is likely to overtake Sinn Fein in seat numbers, but only by one seat, and that will not be enough for a stable coalition which would exclude Sinn Fein. So do you expect new elections right away? (to be won by SF). That would be quite risky.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 10, 2020 22:10:34 GMT
7 seats are unfilled. In Sligo-Leitrim it should go FF & FG; in Wicklow FG & FF & GP; in Cavan-Monaghan either FF & FG or FF & FF.
Prospect:
34+3|4=37|38 FF 37 SF 33+2|3=35|36 FG 11+1=12 GP
38 for FF would make a coalition with SF - which is perhaps even less risky for FF than FF&FG, who have lost already ~20 MPs and would have no party to support them - easier than with 37:37.
|
|
|
Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Feb 10, 2020 22:17:24 GMT
Georg Ebner, doesn't that 38 include the Ceann Comhairle?
|
|
|
Post by relique on Feb 10, 2020 22:23:37 GMT
Georg Ebner , doesn't that 38 include the Ceann Comhairle? From my spreadsheets, yes.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 10, 2020 22:27:08 GMT
Georg Ebner, doesn't that 38 include the Ceann Comhairle? Yes.
|
|
|
Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Feb 10, 2020 22:27:12 GMT
So FF (37+CC) + SF (37) + SOL-PBP (5) thankfully doesn't quite work.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 10, 2020 22:31:16 GMT
So FF (37+CC) + SF (37) + SOL-PBP (5) thankfully doesn't quite work. No, and i don't think, that FF would like&try that combination. Labour (&Ind.) perhaps, as they also didn't recover in opposition? Or the Greens?
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Feb 10, 2020 22:48:59 GMT
Sligo-Leitrim has finished and FF have one there plus yet another runner-up.
In Cavan-Monagan 2 FF and 1 FG are chasing two seats with a third FF candidate's transfers to be distributed. FF should get both seats here plus one of the three seats still outstanding in Wicklow to take the lead.
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
|
Post by European Lefty on Feb 10, 2020 22:51:07 GMT
Would FF+SF+Green work? It's currently 36+37+12 (including the CC) and they have at least one more coming in Cavan-Monaghan so it would have a majority, but would it work politically?
|
|