French Législatives Elections 2012 Jun 15, 2012 10:22:06 GMT
Post by coolhandluke on Jun 15, 2012 10:22:06 GMT
Jun 12, 2012 18:13:02 GMT @robin said:What sites are people using ?
New poll of the 3e circonscription of Vaucluse shows Marion Maréchal-Le Pen (FN) leading in the second round with 20% still to make up their minds (figures compare with first round vote share):
Marion Maréchal-Le Pen (FN) 36,5% (+1.5)
Jean-Michel Ferrand (UMP) 34,5% (+3.5)
Catherine Arkilovitch (PS) 29% (+6)
There's been no new poll of the 11th Pas-de-Calais circonscription (Hénin-Beaumont) where Marine Le Pen could be heading for victory? What do people think Marine Le Pen's chances of winning Hénin-Beaumont? She needs to find another 7.75% vote share in the second round.
UMP candidate for the constituency in 2002, Muriel Bury-Crombez, has called for voters to back Marine Le Pen in the second round. The bulk of Jean Urbaniak's (MoDem) vote (4179; 7.86%) is likely to switch to Le Pen given this vote was largely a personal one with Urbaniak been mayor in part of the constituency, Noyelles-Godault. Also the bulk of DLR candidate, Michel Vast (488; 0.92%) will probably transfer to Marine Le Pen when you look at Nicolas Dupont Aignan's party?
So much will depend on parts of the constituency like Rouvroy (Communist at a cantonales level!) which switched heavily to Marine Le Pen in the first round (she won 44,15 % against Kemel's 13,74 %). Melenchon took 33 % but PCF polled 50% back on 2007. It looks like Marine Le Pen could crucially poll over 50% in the Hénin-Beaumont part of the constituency. Another important area, Carvin, surprisingly had Marine Le Pen ahead of the Socialists in round 1 (38,55 % vs 37,85 %) and it will also depend on how Melenchon's votes, here, (15,49%) split?