No, because when there are two Left candidates into the runoff, the one that polled weakest traditionally withdraws. Even in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais where the two parties absolutely loathe each other.
Thing is, what if the PS candidate comes 3rd in the First Round, but opinion polling shows them as being more likely to defeat Le-Pen? Looks like a reasonable scenario too..
Then they either drop out and endorse Mélenchon (because he won't withdraw if he's the leading Left candidate unless something really bizarre happens) or they allow Le Pen to win the seat at a canter. Of course what they'll actually try to do is finish above Mélenchon in the first round.
“Actually, I think ‘A Bend in the River’ is much, much better than Conrad,” Mr. Naipaul said.
Also a Harris Interactive survey for Le Figaro is suggesting the FN will not make a large number of triangulars or duels given turnout is expected to be around 60%. According to this survey, if the FN records a national vote of 14% in the legislative elections at the predicted turnout then the party will make the second round in around 60 to 80 constituencies. Whereas, Cevipof suggest the FN are more likely to make the runoffs in only 10 to 40 constituencies.
Should the FN record a national vote of 12-13% in the legislative elections at a lower turnout (56%) then the party will make the second round in just one constituency. If the FN scores 16-18% nationally and turnout reaches 72% then the party would make 225 runoffs.
To be elected today: 50%+1 of the votes casted AND one quarter of the total eligible electorate To qualify for run off: top 2 OR 12.5% of the total eligible electorate.
In 2007 UMP and its allies got 108 MPs elected after first round against 1 single Socialist managing to do it.
We already have the first results from Outre-Mer. Socialist Victorin Lurel (currently Outre-Mer minister) is the first MP to be elected taking 67.23% of the vote in the 4th constituency of Guadaloupe. Other candidates got 50%+ in other constituencies but failed to reach 25% of the total electorate as the turnout was very low. In Guadaloupe I, incumbent Eric Jalton (Left Indy) polled 55.46% In Guadalopue II, Gabrielle Louis-Carabin (elected for UMP in 2007 but now a Hollande's supporter) got 56.95% yesterday. Both have been forced to a run off by 30-31% overall turnout. Incumbent Jeanny Marc (Left Indy) finished third in Guadaloupe III and so she's already out. The run off will be between another Divers de Guache and the official Socialist candidate. In Martinique (Fort de France), Leftish Serge Letchimy got 63% but with a 30% turnout he will have to go to a (boring) run off
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 10, 2012 19:26:00 GMT
Communist-Socialist runoff in 16th Nord (Marchiennes~) - the FN just missed out on making it a three way. Last time it was a UMP -Commie runoff but the UMP vote collapsed this time. Commie won easily then but I wonder how many on the right might vote Socialist