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Post by yellowperil on Apr 13, 2018 10:42:13 GMT
Clever of Hempie uniquely to spot the full potential for the Lib Dem gain in Rogate. Like a number of us I thought about it, factoring in the County gain of the Midhurst division by the same candidate, but still thought that Rogate must be one of the most safely Tory bits of that division and pulled back from expecting lightning to strike twice. Wrong! edit: I believe its actually true that if you have been struck by lightning once you are more likely to be struck a second time? Chichester Tories/LibDem predictors should have taken note  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 13, 2018 12:20:37 GMT
Yes, well done to: - Hempie for the week win - Yellow Peril for the overall monthly lead - Robbie for the spreadsheet! |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 14, 2018 10:03:45 GMT
For week 2:| Authority | Week 1 | Chichester | St Edmundsbury | South
Northants | Week 2 | Week 2
| Weeks 1 & 2
| Weeks 1 & 2 | | Ward | faults | Rogate | St Olaves | Middleton
Cheney
| faults | position
| faults
| position | ajs | 201.6
| 71.6+10
| 57.2+10
| 47.5
| 196.3
| 11th
| 397.9
| 11th
| andrewp | 222.0
| 29.6+10
| 33.2
| 10.5+10
| 93.2
| 3rd
| 315.2
| 7th
| David Boothroyd | 174.1
| 55.6+10 | 35.9
| 23.7+10
| 135.2
| 7th
| 309.2
| 5th
| greenrobinhood | 175.0
| 69.6+10
| 37.9
| 37.5
| 155.0
| 9th
| 330.0
| 8th
| hempie | 199.0 | 21.6
| 43.9
| 22.4
| 87.8
| 1st
| 286.8
| 2nd
| Lancastrian | 176.0
| 100
| 100
| 100
| 300 |
| 476.0
| 12th
| olympian95 | 216.9
| 23.6+10
| 35.9
| 23.4
| 92.9
| 2nd
| 309.8
| 6th
| priceofdawn | 191.7 | 99.6+10
| 31.8
| 58.3
| 199.7
| 12th
| 391.4
| 10th
| Right Leaning | 181.9
| 39.6+10
| 45.9+10
| 18.3
| 123.7
| 6th
| 305.6
| 4th
| robbienicoll | 203.0
| 51.6+10
| 39.9
| 36.3
| 137.7
| 8th
| 340.7
| 9th
| Robert Waller | 181.0
| 31.6+10
| 37.2
| 30.4
| 109.1
| 5th
| 290.1 | 3rd
| thebartonsrule14
| 400
| 67.6+10
| 41.9+10
| 27.5
| 157.0
| 10th
| 557.0
| 13th
| Yellow Peril | 190.6
| 35.6+10 | 37.2
| 12.4
| 95.1
| 4th
| 285.7
| 1st
| Total faults | 2,712.6
| 696.7+110
| 577.8+30
| 448.2+20
| 1,882.7
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| 4,595.3
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Objections pleaser by 5 pm Saturday. There are 3 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 14, 2018 14:25:24 GMT
Yes, well done to: - Hempie for the week win - Yellow Peril for the overall monthly lead - Robbie for the spreadsheet! .. and Robert himself of course for placing himself just fractionally behind the lead so he can mop up nicely and resume his accustomed place when the last 3 results for the month come in |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 18, 2018 22:04:20 GMT
My predictions for this week:
Perth & Kinross UA, Highland (1st preference votes): Conservative 44, SNP 28, Independent (Baykal) 11, Labour 6, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 3, Independent (Taylor) 3.
Warrington UA, Lymm South: Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 38, Labour 13, Green 4, UKIP 3.
West Berkshire UA, Thatcham West: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 35, Labour 8, Green 5, UKIP 2.
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 18, 2018 22:40:37 GMT
Perth & Kinross UA, Highland (1st preference votes): Conservative 40, SNP 27, Independent (Baykal) 5, Labour 6, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 4, Independent (Taylor) 15.
Warrington UA, Lymm South: Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 41, Labour 13, Green 3, UKIP 3.
West Berkshire UA, Thatcham West: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 35, Labour 8, Green 4, UKIP 3.
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 18, 2018 23:01:02 GMT
Highland, Perth and Kinross: Con 37, Lab 4, LD 5, Green 2, SNP 31, Ind (Bakyal) 5, Ind (Taylor) 16 - Con to win after transfers
Lymm South, Warrington: Con 38, Lab 9, LD 46, UKIP 3, Green 4
Thatcham West, West Berkshire: Con 31, Lab 9, LD 56, UKIP 1, Green 3
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2018 23:13:19 GMT
Perth and Kinross Con 40 SNP 34 Taylor 8 LibDem 6 Bakyal 4 Lab 4 Green 4.
Lymm South LibDem 47 Con 32 Lab 15 Green 4 UKIP 2
Thatcham West LibDem 45 Con 37 Lab 15 Green 2 UKIP 1
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 18, 2018 23:45:51 GMT
PERTH AND KINROSS Highland: SNP 32, C 28, Ind Taylor 24, L Dem 7, Lab 5, Ind Baykal 2, SGP 2. Conservative to win after distribution of preferences.
WARRINGTON Lymm South: L Dem 43, C 39, Lab 11, UKIP 4, GP 3
WEST BERKSHIRE Thatcham West: L Dem 51, C 36, Lab 7, GP 4, UKIP 2
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 19, 2018 3:08:18 GMT
Perth & Kinross, Highland: Con 42,Lab 4, LD 8, Green 5, SNP 22, Ind Taylor 14, Ind Baykal 5 :Con to win on transfers
Warrington, Lymm South: Con 38, Lab 18, LD 40, Green 2, UKIP 2
West Berkshire, Thatcham W: Con 38, Lab 9. LD 48, Green 3,UKIP 2
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2018 5:54:23 GMT
Perth & Kinross, Highland: Con 43,Lab 2, LD 7, Green 2, SNP 44, Ind Taylor 1, Ind Baykal 1 :Con to win on transfers
Warrington, Lymm South: Con 55, Lab 34, LD 7, Green 3, UKIP 1
West Berkshire, Thatcham W: Con 55, Lab 17. LD 25, Green 2,UKIP 1
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Post by andrewp on Apr 19, 2018 6:22:22 GMT
Perth and Kinross Highland Con 37, SNP 30, Ind Taylor 13, Lab 6, Ind Baykal 6, Lib Dem 5, Green 3
Warrington Lymm South Lib Dem 41, Con 35, Lab 18, Green 3, UKIP 3
West Berkshire, Thatcham West Lib Dem 43, Con 39, Lab 9, Green 4, UKIP 3
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Post by Right Leaning on Apr 19, 2018 6:54:16 GMT
Perth & Kinross UA, Highland (1st preference votes): Con 38, SNP 30, Ind (Taylor) 15, Lab 7, LD 4, Ind (Baykal) 4, Green 2, (Con to win)
Warrington UA, Lymm South: LD 41, Con 38, Lab 15, Green 3, UKIP 3.
West Berkshire UA, Thatcham West: LD 53, Con 35, Lab 6, Green 4, UKIP 2
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Post by olympian95 on Apr 19, 2018 7:16:08 GMT
Warrington: LD 46, Con 38, Lab 9, Green 5, UKIP 2
West Berks: LD 48, Con 36, Lab 10, UKIP 4, Green 2
Highlands: Con 36, SNP 26, Indy (Baykal) 13, LD 9, Indy (Taylor) 7, Lab 6, Green 3
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Apr 19, 2018 7:25:19 GMT
Perth & Kinross, Highland (1st preference votes): Con 38, SNP 26, Ind (Taylor) 13, Lab 7, LD 6, Ind (Baykal) 5, Green 5 (Con win on transfers)
Warrington, Lymm South: LD 41, Con 38,Lab 14, Green 4, UKIP 3.
West Berkshire, Thatcham West: LD 51, Con 38, Lab 6, Green 3, UKIP 2
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 19, 2018 21:01:25 GMT
11 entries this week with no ajs whilst andrewp gets 2 additional faults for adding to only 98% in West Berkshire, Thatcham West.
Perth & Kinross, Highland: 9 Conservative ahead on first preferences, David Boothroyd & priceofdawn SNP ahead
Warrington, Lymm South: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority 1% (Robert Waller) to 15% (thebartonrule14), greenrobinhood & priceofdawn Conservative hold
West Berkshire, Thatcham West: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority 4% (andrewp) to 25% (robbienichol), priceofdawn Conservative hold
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 19, 2018 21:09:22 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 19, 2018 21:17:19 GMT
For week 3:| Authority | Weeks 1 & 2 | Perth & Kinross | Warrington | West Berkshire | Week 3 | Week 3
| Month
| Month | | Ward | faults | Highland | Lymm South | Thatcham West
| faults | position
| faults
| position | ajs | 397.9
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 300
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| 697.9
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| andrewp | 315.2
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| 6.5
| 20.9+2 |
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| David Boothroyd | 309.2
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| 14.5
| 15.4
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| greenrobinhood | 330.0
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| 20.2+10
| 12.1
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| hempie | 286.8 |
| 12.2
| 19.4
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| Lancastrian | 476.0
| 100
| 100
| 100
| 300 |
| 776.0 |
| olympian95 | 309.8
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| 18.5
| 14.9
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| priceofdawn | 391.4 |
| 72.5+10
| 66.9+10
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| Right Leaning | 305.6
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| 10.2
| 17.4
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| robbienicoll | 340.7
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| 18.5
| 18.1
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| Robert Waller | 290.1 |
| 14.2
| 12.1
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| thebartonsrule14
| 557.0
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| 14.9
| 26.9
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| Yellow Peril | 285.7
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| 6.2
| 16.9
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| Total faults | 4,595.3
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| 408.6+20
| 441.1+2+10
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With Perth & Kinross, Highland to come, Yellow Peril leads Robert Waller by 7.6 faults with hempie a further 2.1 behind.
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Post by samdwebber on Apr 19, 2018 21:55:52 GMT
Worth a read and a retweet as we wait for the final 3 results before #LE2018 to roll in:
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 20, 2018 13:13:28 GMT
Yes, well done to: - Hempie for the week win - Yellow Peril for the overall monthly lead - Robbie for the spreadsheet! .. and Robert himself of course for placing himself just fractionally behind the lead so he can mop up nicely and resume his accustomed place when the last 3 results for the month come in and that I did predict! Haven't yet got Robbie's updated spreadsheet, let alone confirmation be middleenglander, but I make it Robert has just snuck ahead of me by a couple of points at the very last ( I somewhat underestimated the SNP, and that did for me). Reminds me of how the best runners save their best energy for the last dip at the line.... |
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