jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 23, 2018 20:03:25 GMT
Quinnipiac tend to be very good or absolutely awful with no middle ground. Ned Lamont, the Democratic candidate, isn’t too outside the mainstream, and under other circumstances would be a US Senator, having won the Democratic primary against Joe Lieberman, who went on to win the general election as the so far one and only Connecticut Independent Party candidate, with considerable Republican assistance. Very true. I'm reminded of Virginia 2017 which has been repeatedly used to highlight them as the gold standard. While their last poll was spot on, the 2nd last one has a massive Northam victory that just appeared to be completely random. The fact that their last poll showed the racing substantially narrowing was in contrast to other pollsters who uniformly started showing Northam lead/comfortable lead at the last minute. Their recent Texas polls also seem to be jumping around for no clear reason. That all said (lol), they are the only remotely credible pollster to poll this race and it's hard to imagine both Trump and Malloy at -40 in Connecticut. Agreed. But the fact he's not a member of the current state government and has a track record of taking on the establishment allows him some opportunity to distance himself from the current problems.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2018 20:32:57 GMT
GOP gain from DEM: North Dakota,
DEM gain from GOP: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee
Toss up: New Jersey
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Aug 23, 2018 20:40:41 GMT
GOP gain from DEM: North Dakota, DEM gain from GOP: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee Toss up: New Jersey Would've thought that the Republicans would have a damn good shot at Florida, and possibly Missouri too. Not sure about the Democrats taking Tennessee, mind you. Personally I think their best bet for now would be to get a result similar to 2006.
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 23, 2018 21:26:50 GMT
GOP gain from DEM: North Dakota, DEM gain from GOP: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee Toss up: New Jersey New Jersey is not a toss up. Much as Menendez deserves to lose, he will not be in this environment. Had Clinton won, maybe. Democrats currently look favoured in Montana, West Virginia and Arizona (the latter a pick-up), whilst the Republicans look favoured in Tennessee due to the fundamentals of the state (though like NJ, this deserves to flip). Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota & Florida look like toss-ups. Scott (R) is consistently up in Floridian polls at the moment, but polling can’t be fully trusted at this early stage - if this is still the case in a month’s time then it is really time for Democrats to start worrying. I have a feeling that Heitkamp (D) will end up winning with a bit to spare in North Dakota, but there is no polling evidence (and there probably won’t be, due to polling laws in the state) to back this up at the moment.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 23, 2018 22:04:18 GMT
GOP gain from DEM: North Dakota, DEM gain from GOP: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee Toss up: New Jersey Would've thought that the Republicans would have a damn good shot at Florida, and possibly Missouri too. Not sure about the Democrats taking Tennessee, mind you. Personally I think their best bet for now would be to get a result similar to 2006. I’d also suggest the Republican chances in Indiana are as good, if not better, than in North Dakota just simply on Donnelly having less of a personal “brand” than Heitkamp.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 24, 2018 17:21:42 GMT
Not so much an election but a forthcoming appointment: John McCain has ended his medical treatment.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 25, 2018 9:57:57 GMT
Not so much an election but a forthcoming appointment: John McCain has ended his medical treatment. I am sure that Mitch McConnell will be glad to finally get a 51st senator back in the chamber. Whoever is appointed to replace McCain will serve until November 2020 when a special election will take place for the final two years of the term. It has long been reported that McCain has lobbied very hard for his wife Cindy to be appointed in his place.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 25, 2018 10:06:44 GMT
^ That would be terrible politics.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 25, 2018 10:56:09 GMT
It would probably help retain the seat on a sympathy vote.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 25, 2018 13:33:03 GMT
It would probably help retain the seat on a sympathy vote. There will be no Special Election until 2020 under Arizona law, so a sympathy vote may have dissipated by then. An appointment is interesting, Governor Ducey is up for re-election but is not thought to be in a competitive race. Names quietly being mentioned are former Senator Jon Kyl as a placeholder, or if Ducey wants to throw a stone in the lake, Megan McCain, who’s even more critical of the President than her father.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 25, 2018 14:51:36 GMT
There will be no Special Election until 2020 under Arizona law, so a sympathy vote may have dissipated by then. An appointment is interesting, Governor Ducey is up for re-election but is not thought to be in a competitive race. Names quietly being mentioned are former Senator Jon Kyl as a placeholder, or if Ducey wants to throw a stone in the lake, Megan McCain, who’s even more critical of the President than her father. Ducey is actually in a very competitive election (the polling is tied). It it should be said that McCain has a big personal vote, particularly among moderates, so any Republican who can carry this vote with them would be a good choice. The fact that Democrats are competitive against an incumbent governor and are comfortably leading the polling for the open Senate seat suggests that generic Republican is no longer enough to keep statewide elections safe Republican.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 25, 2018 15:05:38 GMT
There will be no Special Election until 2020 under Arizona law, so a sympathy vote may have dissipated by then. An appointment is interesting, Governor Ducey is up for re-election but is not thought to be in a competitive race. Names quietly being mentioned are former Senator Jon Kyl as a placeholder, or if Ducey wants to throw a stone in the lake, Megan McCain, who’s even more critical of the President than her father. Ducey is actually in a very competitive election (the polling is tied). It it should be said that McCain has a big personal vote, particularly among moderates, so any Republican who can carry this vote with them would be a good choice. The fact that Democrats are competitive against an incumbent governor and are comfortably leading the polling for the open Senate seat suggests that generic Republican is no longer enough to keep statewide elections safe Republican. Given that there’s only been one Gubernatorial poll since January it’s a tad bold to say the polling is tied. Only Real Clesr Politics have it as anything worse than Lean Republican which suggests it’s not high on anybody’s watch list. Undoubtedly Arizona is trending away from the Republicans, and Flake’s open Senate seat is probably number two on the Democrats takeover list, but unless Ducey makes a mess of appointing a Senator he seems fine for a second term.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 26, 2018 1:18:28 GMT
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 26, 2018 8:43:17 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 26, 2018 9:43:37 GMT
While I don't normally approve of talking about the politics of someone's death so soon we are only 2 days from the Arizona primary where there is a very competitive and hugely import fight for the GOP nomination for Senate. You have to think that the wall to wall coverage in the most glowing terms of McCain will not be helpful to Kelli Ward who has said some incredibly crass things about McCain over the last 2 or 3 years.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 26, 2018 9:48:06 GMT
While I don't normally approve of talking about the politics of someone's death so soon we are only 2 days from the Arizona primary where there is a very competitive and hugely import fight for the GOP nomination for Senate. You have to think that the wall to wall coverage in the most glowing terms of McCain will not be helpful to Kelli Ward who has said some incredibly crass things about McCain over the last 2 or 3 years. We can but hope.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 26, 2018 10:11:29 GMT
While I don't normally approve of talking about the politics of someone's death so soon we are only 2 days from the Arizona primary where there is a very competitive and hugely import fight for the GOP nomination for Senate. You have to think that the wall to wall coverage in the most glowing terms of McCain will not be helpful to Kelli Ward who has said some incredibly crass things about McCain over the last 2 or 3 years. Crass things, up to and including last night: "Kelli Ward suggests John McCain statement on ending treatment timed to hurt her campaign" eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/08/25/kelli-ward-john-mccain-statement-ending-treatment-timed-hurt-her/1100267002/I'm sure John McCain wouldn't mind us having a hearty laugh at how that nasty egg has ended up on her face...
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Aug 26, 2018 10:40:04 GMT
The responses to this tweet tell their own story:
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 26, 2018 10:55:49 GMT
While I don't normally approve of talking about the politics of someone's death so soon we are only 2 days from the Arizona primary where there is a very competitive and hugely import fight for the GOP nomination for Senate. You have to think that the wall to wall coverage in the most glowing terms of McCain will not be helpful to Kelli Ward who has said some incredibly crass things about McCain over the last 2 or 3 years. Crass things, up to and including last night: "Kelli Ward suggests John McCain statement on ending treatment timed to hurt her campaign" eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/08/25/kelli-ward-john-mccain-statement-ending-treatment-timed-hurt-her/1100267002/I'm sure John McCain wouldn't mind us having a hearty laugh at how that nasty egg has ended up on her face... Good grief, I hadn't seen that. How stupid do you have to be to write something like that at such a time.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 26, 2018 11:20:58 GMT
Good grief, I hadn't seen that. How stupid do you have to be to write something like that at such a time. Actually Kelli Ward does tend to make Sarah Palin look like a female Stephen Hawking, and really the main focus on Tuesday was who finished second to Martha McSally - the swivel eyed loon, to use a famous McCain phrase, or the bent cop Joe Arpaio.
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