ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,947
|
Post by ColinJ on Apr 25, 2018 6:59:28 GMT
I've just looked back a few pages on this thread, but failed to spot any mention of Tuesday's special election in Arizona in the eighth House district. Trump won the area by 20% but the Republicans held on by only 5.2%. The detail is here.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Apr 25, 2018 7:19:51 GMT
I've just looked back a few pages on this thread, but failed to spot any mention of Tuesday's special election in Arizona in the eighth House district. Trump won the area by 20% but the Republicans held on by only 5.2%. The detail is here. Indeed a disappointing result for the Republicans given the traditional partisan lean of the District, the fact their candidate was well funded and largely uncontroversial, but also that around two thirds of votes are cast by mail which traditionally is very favourable to Republicans in American elections.
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Apr 25, 2018 7:22:31 GMT
I've just looked back a few pages on this thread, but failed to spot any mention of Tuesday's special election in Arizona in the eighth House district. Trump won the area by 20% but the Republicans held on by only 5.2%. The detail is here. interesting bit of electoral cartography!
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Apr 25, 2018 7:57:50 GMT
Well a win is a win but this one is hardly going to clam GOP nerves ahead of November. Not only is it a solid GOP district but they had a good candidate, a former state senator with a well established political machine, and the Democrat while being an okay candidate was nothing special.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,189
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 25, 2018 8:00:59 GMT
Given the big lead in registered Republican votes cast over Democrats, this is a very worryimg result for the Repbulicans. It suggests that the big majority of Imdependents and a nkt insignifjcant chunk of Republicans voted Democrat. I really didn't see it being this close, thinking pushing the Republican lead down to 10% would have been a blow for the GOP.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,406
|
Post by john07 on Apr 25, 2018 8:50:52 GMT
Given the big lead in registered Republican votes cast over Democrats, this is a very worryimg result for the Repbulicans. It suggests that the big majority of Imdependents and a nkt insignifjcant chunk of Republicans voted Democrat. I really didn't see it being this close, thinking pushing the Republican lead down to 10% would have been a blow for the GOP. This District was noted as a hotbed of support for Sheriff Joe Arpaio. It is a retirement area for white voters. It was carried by MItt Romney 62% to 37%.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,162
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2018 11:13:01 GMT
I really didn't see it being this close But most OpinionPolls did.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Apr 25, 2018 14:35:27 GMT
I really didn't see it being this close But most OpinionPolls did. On the flip side the partisan registration of mail-in ballots was released daily and seemed to show a much bigger Republican margin, so it would appear a sizeable chunk of registered Republicans voted Democratic.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2018 14:42:29 GMT
PPP exit poll. Overall sample had Lesko +4.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Apr 27, 2018 18:23:21 GMT
Republican Representative Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania to end an Ethics Committee investigation into allegations he sexually harassed a staffer. One of the few Republicans sitting in a District carried by Hillary Clinton.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,809
|
Post by jamie on Apr 28, 2018 9:31:38 GMT
Interestingly, it looks like his and Charlie Dent's seats will be elected at the same time as the redrawn seats are, meaning it is very possible some candidates will win the vacancies for 2 months but lose the election for the 2 years after.
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Apr 28, 2018 10:40:06 GMT
Interestingly, it looks like his and Charlie Dent's seats will be elected at the same time as the redrawn seats are, meaning it is very possible some candidates will win the vacancies for 2 months but lose the election for the 2 years after. The special elections will take place sooner than that. When a vacancy occurs the Governor has 10 days to announce a special election and that election must take place within 60 days of the announcement. They are no primaries and local party leaders choose the candidates.
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2018 11:25:19 GMT
The events of the last week have certainly complicated Jon Tester's re-election bid. Trump seems to be genuinely furious over the sinking of Ronny Jackson's nomination to be Secretary of Veteran's Affairs and it looks like he plans to go after Tester big time. If he keeps up the attacks over the coming months you have to assume that it will have some impact, possibly enough to swing a close race. I had previously considered Tester to be narrow favourite for re-election but now consider this to be a 50/50 race.
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Apr 29, 2018 11:33:27 GMT
The events of the last week have certainly complicated Jon Tester's re-election bid. Trump seems to be genuinely furious over the sinking of Ronny Jackson's nomination to be Secretary of Veteran's Affairs and it looks like he plans to go after Tester big time. If he keeps up the attacks over the coming months you have to assume that it will have some impact, possibly enough to swing a close race. I had previously considered Tester to be narrow favourite for re-election but now consider this to be a 50/50 race. I don't think voters will care about one blocked Cabinet nomination though. Tester's vulnerable no doubt, but Trump's attacks thus far are probably going to fire up his (Tester's) base. That doesn't exactly hurt Tester...
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2018 11:40:19 GMT
The events of the last week have certainly complicated Jon Tester's re-election bid. Trump seems to be genuinely furious over the sinking of Ronny Jackson's nomination to be Secretary of Veteran's Affairs and it looks like he plans to go after Tester big time. If he keeps up the attacks over the coming months you have to assume that it will have some impact, possibly enough to swing a close race. I had previously considered Tester to be narrow favourite for re-election but now consider this to be a 50/50 race. I don't think voters will care about one blocked Cabinet nomination though. Tester's vulnerable no doubt, but Trump's attacks thus far are probably going to fire up his base. That doesn't exactly hurt Tester... I certainly agree that voters don't care about one blocked cabinet nomination but I think the impact of Trump constantly going after him could be a decisive factor in a close race, even more so if Trump enthusiastically campaigns for whoever wins the GOP primary. The Democratic base is already fired up and would have turned out anyway.
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Apr 29, 2018 11:57:15 GMT
I don't think voters will care about one blocked Cabinet nomination though. Tester's vulnerable no doubt, but Trump's attacks thus far are probably going to fire up his base. That doesn't exactly hurt Tester... I certainly agree that voters don't care about one blocked cabinet nomination but I think the impact of Trump constantly going after him could be a decisive factor in a close race, even more so if Trump enthusiastically campaigns for whoever wins the GOP primary. The Democratic base is already fired up and would have turned out anyway. The single biggest problem the GOP has here is that if they get a bad enough candidate, then there's little Trump can do to save his campaign. And the MT GOP has a history of not picking candidates who can measure up to Democratic incumbents they are running up against (the ND GOP has an even worse case of this).
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Apr 29, 2018 12:10:14 GMT
Something interesting about Tester is the fact he has a pretty liberal record in comparison to other Trump state Democratic senators (case in point: he voted against confirming Gorsuch). How has he survived? I'd assume that in 2018, if he does win, it amounts to 1) The GOP has the presidency and their president isn't all that overwhelmingly popular in MT, 2) Tester is good at retail politics and presenting himself, and 3) he got a weak opponent. And, if he lost, the single biggest factor was him getting a tough opponent.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Apr 29, 2018 14:25:45 GMT
Something interesting about Tester is the fact he has a pretty liberal record in comparison to other Trump state Democratic senators (case in point: he voted against confirming Gorsuch). How has he survived? I'd assume that in 2018, if he does win, it amounts to 1) The GOP has the presidency and their president isn't all that overwhelmingly popular in MT, 2) Tester is good at retail politics and presenting himself, and 3) he got a weak opponent. And, if he lost, the single biggest factor was him getting a tough opponent. It was also frequently said during the House Special Election to replace Ryan Zinke that Montana may be Republican but isn’t particularly Trump Republican. I suspect Tester won’t be badly hurt by this because pretty much every veteran’s organisation had expressed reservations about Jackson so it doesn’t seem like mud will stick, particularly if Tester supports a more credible replacement nominee.
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2018 15:15:53 GMT
Something interesting about Tester is the fact he has a pretty liberal record in comparison to other Trump state Democratic senators (case in point: he voted against confirming Gorsuch). How has he survived? I'd assume that in 2018, if he does win, it amounts to 1) The GOP has the presidency and their president isn't all that overwhelmingly popular in MT, 2) Tester is good at retail politics and presenting himself, and 3) he got a weak opponent. And, if he lost, the single biggest factor was him getting a tough opponent. It was also frequently said during the House Special Election to replace Ryan Zinke that Montana may be Republican but isn’t particularly Trump Republican. I suspect Tester won’t be badly hurt by this because pretty much every veteran’s organisation had expressed reservations about Jackson so it doesn’t seem like mud will stick, particularly if Tester supports a more credible replacement nominee. I don't think he will be badly hurt by this either. I just think Trump going after Tester big time, in a way that he probably won't for Manchin and Heitkamp, could well have a small impact that is a enough to swing what it is likely to be a close race. It isn't about issue itself, it is about Trump going after him over and over again and potentially going all in in his support of his opponent.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Apr 29, 2018 16:01:41 GMT
I suspect Tester won’t be badly hurt by this because pretty much every veteran’s organisation had expressed reservations about Jackson so it doesn’t seem like mud will stick, particularly if Tester supports a more credible replacement nominee. I don't think he will be badly hurt by this either. I just think Trump going after Tester big time, in a way that he probably won't for Manchin and Heitkamp, could well have a small impact that is a enough to swing what it is likely to be a close race. It isn't about issue itself, it is about Trump going after him over and over again and potentially going all in in his support of his opponent. [/quote] Interesting that none of the three major handicappers, Inside Politics (Stu Rothenberg/Nathan Gonzalez), UVa Center for Politics Crystal Ball (Larry Sabato) or Cook Political Report (Charlie Cook) have re-rated this from Likely Democrat/Leans Democrat/Tilt Democrat their respective second safest category amongst potentially competitive races.
|
|