Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 3, 2018 19:25:23 GMT
Beto O'Rourke has announced that he raised a quite staggering $6.7 million in first quarter of 2018, a feet made all the more impressive because he isn't accepting any money off PACs. Chances are he is now sitting on more cash than Ted Cruz, something that seemed inconceivable when he entered the race.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 4, 2018 11:39:27 GMT
Democrats have won an open Republican seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court by 11%. Interestingly, the map looks quite similar to Obama 7% win in 2012 in rural areas, with big gains in Madison (liberal/university city) and the cities/large towns.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 4, 2018 11:41:32 GMT
Straw in the wind but a very liberal candidate has just won a judgeship on Wisconsin Supreme Court in a statewide election. She ran an explicitly anti-Trump campaign. Rebecca Dallet (D) 555,196 Michael Screnock (R) 440,235
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 4, 2018 12:23:05 GMT
Interesting trivia: 2.9 million votes in the 2016 election, and Trump captured the state despite gaining fewer votes than Romney did in 2012.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 4, 2018 14:04:55 GMT
While the overall result isn't a huge shock what is particular notable is how badly the GOP did the 7th and 8th congressional districts where Trump performed far better than republicans state wide candidates have tended to do in the past.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 4, 2018 21:13:30 GMT
While the overall result isn't a huge shock what is particular notable is how badly the GOP did the 7th and 8th congressional districts where Trump performed far better than republicans state wide candidates have tended to do in the past. 8 is always particularly interesting as it includes Green Bay, the Burnley or Leverkusen of US sport. While the politics is markedly different from their cousins the makeup is very similar (at least traditionally), working class medium sized towns with a tradition that punches above its weight. 'Football' fans are the most Trumpian of any team game supporters, and there's no more 'Football' town than Green Bay...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 4, 2018 21:21:49 GMT
While the overall result isn't a huge shock what is particular notable is how badly the GOP did the 7th and 8th congressional districts where Trump performed far better than republicans state wide candidates have tended to do in the past. 8 is always particularly interesting as it includes Green Bay, the Burnley or Leverkusen of US sport. While the politics is markedly different from their cousins the makeup is very similar (at least traditionally), working class medium sized towns with a tradition that punches above its weight. 'Football' fans are the most Trumpian of any team game supporters, and there's no more 'Football' town than Green Bay... I was thinking Castleford- known almost exclusively for its sports team amongst the general population. Or Featherstone. Or Sale in the other code. Burnley and Leverkusen at least have other claims to fame. Hell, even Suntellins does!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2018 8:23:32 GMT
While the overall result isn't a huge shock what is particular notable is how badly the GOP did the 7th and 8th congressional districts where Trump performed far better than republicans state wide candidates have tended to do in the past. 8 is always particularly interesting as it includes Green Bay, the Burnley or Leverkusen of US sport. While the politics is markedly different from their cousins the makeup is very similar (at least traditionally), working class medium sized towns with a tradition that punches above its weight. 'Football' fans are the most Trumpian of any team game supporters, and there's no more 'Football' town than Green Bay... I should probably confess at this point to being both a “football” and Green Bay follower.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 5, 2018 10:15:59 GMT
While the overall result isn't a huge shock what is particular notable is how badly the GOP did the 7th and 8th congressional districts where Trump performed far better than republicans state wide candidates have tended to do in the past. 8 is always particularly interesting as it includes Green Bay, the Burnley or Leverkusen of US sport. While the politics is markedly different from their cousins the makeup is very similar (at least traditionally), working class medium sized towns with a tradition that punches above its weight. 'Football' fans are the most Trumpian of any team game supporters, and there's no more 'Football' town than Green Bay... I suspect I'm the only person on this forum who has actually been to Green Bay (and it wasn't for the football). It's a pretty grim industrial town, miles from anywhere and well off the beaten track.
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Post by tiberius on Apr 5, 2018 12:44:54 GMT
Striking just how many votes the WI GOP allowed to be wasted in WI-05 (which nearly gave Schrenock 60% when he got less than 45% statewide). It is freaking R+13 while the other 4 GOP seats are R+5, R+7, R+8, and R+8.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 5, 2018 13:12:24 GMT
Striking just how many votes the WI GOP allowed to be wasted in WI-05 (which nearly gave Schrenock 60% when he got less than 45% statewide). It is freaking R+13 while the other 4 GOP seats are R+5, R+7, R+8, and R+8. It is still a pretty favourable map for the GOP though. It would be pretty much impossible to deny the Democrats safe seats based on Milwaukee and Madison and while they could have balanced the GOP vote a bit better between the 1st, 5th and 6th I don't think they considered it necessary as both the 1st and 6th are still safe for the GOP in all but the most awful of years.
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Post by tiberius on Apr 5, 2018 14:40:03 GMT
Striking just how many votes the WI GOP allowed to be wasted in WI-05 (which nearly gave Schrenock 60% when he got less than 45% statewide). It is freaking R+13 while the other 4 GOP seats are R+5, R+7, R+8, and R+8. It is still a pretty favourable map for the GOP though. It would be pretty much impossible to deny the Democrats safe seats based on Milwaukee and Madison and while they could have balanced the GOP vote a bit better between the 1st, 5th and 6th I don't think they considered it necessary as both the 1st and 6th are still safe for the GOP in all but the most awful of years. The best way to do a 6R-2D map actually wouldn't be two safe seats, one with all of Dane County and neighboring areas and another centered on Milwaukee. The most efficient way to do it is to have a seat centering on Dane, but stretching north to Eau Claire, gobbling some of Western Wisconsin. And then an uberpacked Milwaukee district. (the 40.5 D thing refers to the statewide races average in Dave's Redistricting App. It's a measure of how a seat votes downballot) Here all of the most heavily D parts of Western WI are in the seat, while Paul Ryan is gifted an even safer version of WI-01. Western WI is split between two seats, and Stevens Point is now in a WOW (Waukesha Ozaukee Washington) seat. Obama won all 8 of these CDs. How this map behave in a year like 2006? I could definitely see WI-02 falling. It's the closest thing to a swing district on this map.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2018 13:37:40 GMT
To be expected that the far right nutters prevent him from winning outright. He will still win the primary in a landslide.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 22, 2018 13:40:00 GMT
Moderately embarrassing but neither overly surprising or ultimately that important. Romney will win the primary with ease.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 22, 2018 13:47:37 GMT
It’s to be remembered as well his only connection to Utah other than the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics is his Mormon faith; born in Michigan, Governor and resident of Massachusetts, so he’s also susceptible to the “carpet bagger” accusation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2018 15:43:04 GMT
It’s to be remembered as well his only connection to Utah other than the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics is his Mormon faith; born in Michigan, Governor and resident of Massachusetts, so he’s also susceptible to the “carpet bagger” accusation. You have convention with delegates that are both far to the right of the GOP electorate in Utah and with a high opinion of themselves, so acting like a mere rubber stamp for a Romney nomination would have been out of character. It was mainly outsiders (incl. national media) that expected him to get the necessary 60% at the convention. The Romney family is so-called "Mormon royalty", and the opposition to Mitt Romney isn't so much affected by him being from out of state as being a moderate, having an elite background and feeling entitled to the nomination.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 24, 2018 11:05:16 GMT
Looks like Don Blankenship is in serious trouble in West Virginia.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 24, 2018 12:13:48 GMT
Incumbent Republican Doug Lamborn (Colorado 5th District) has been excluded from his District’s Primary by the State Supreme Court for using non residents to collect nominating signatures.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 24, 2018 15:59:24 GMT
Incumbent Republican Doug Lamborn (Colorado 5th District) has been excluded from his District’s Primary by the State Supreme Court for using non residents to collect nominating signatures. Non-residents rules have generally been overturned but could take some (too much) time for him to run for reelection.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 24, 2018 18:02:34 GMT
Incumbent Republican Doug Lamborn (Colorado 5th District) has been excluded from his District’s Primary by the State Supreme Court for using non residents to collect nominating signatures. Non-residents rules have generally been overturned but could take some (too much) time for him to run for reelection. And apparently there’s some question as to whether he’d met the threshold anyway, as he was only roughly 50 over the bare minimum needed.
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