State polls recently have been showing a more favourable picture for Obama than national ones, even when conducted by the same company. This might mean that safe seats have been going in a different direction than swing states, or it might mean that there are problems with the samples for either state or national polls.
The approval ratings for Obama seem to be improving, just as the head-to-head polls have shifted against Not sure the figures mean anything at this stage
Jim, Romney is on record as opposing the car company bailouts (although he has recently tried to claim credit for them!) and also said that Obama was wrong to go after OBL. So both statements are based on attacks against factual Romney statements. And this is, I should point out, not an Official campaign sticker, just someon's suggestion for one following a Joe Biden off-the-cuff remark in an interview. Although I believe you can actually buy them now, just notfrom the campaign
Two factors re gay marriage,There will be a small percentage (but important if it is close) who vote Democrat but believe this is a key issue that they disagree with, (I came across someone I know the other day in the Lib Dems who had no problem with civil partnerships but disagrees with gay marriage :-( ).
The other is that it is an issue that might unify the right with Romney. On the other hand if it forces the Romney campaign to spend all its time on what much of the electorate regard as a non issue that might help Obama.
My comparison is UK 2001 when from my perspective Hague saying there were 10 days to save the pound while motivating his core did not produce a seious Tory recovery, despite my agreeing that there were a lot of anti Euro(pe) people out there.