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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 1, 2018 10:32:41 GMT
We may have to consider what to do with this competition if any of the elections today get postponed. My feeling would be that if its a short term postponement say to tomorrow we should count the predictions as valid, but otherwise the predictions would be void as the circumstances of a re-run would change the likely numbers? Do others agree? Anyway we seem to have lost one or two likely competitors compared with the last two months- competition fatigue or weather-bound? I agree, a postponement for a few days would probably be okay as far as the competition is concerned.
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Post by samdwebber on Mar 1, 2018 19:16:44 GMT
Please do read and retweet:
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 1, 2018 20:34:04 GMT
15 entries for Week 1 of March with nothing from EuropeanLefty, Ruggerman and WilliamHone. Yellow Peril gets 1 additional fault for adding to 99% in Basingstoke & Deane.
Bassingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: 100% Conservative hold with 11 Labour second, 3 Liberal Democrat and 1 them tied - majority ranges from 27% over Labour (Lancastrian) to 46% over Labour (ajs) Clackmannanshire, Clackmannan North: 14 SNP ahead on first preferences with 8 Conservative second and 6 Labour; Olympian95 Conservative ahead of SNP - first preference SNP lead ranges from 1% (Lancastrian & ricmk over Conservative) to 15% (k9 over Labour) East Devon, Exmouth Town: 14 Liberal Democrat majority over Conservative from 2% (Robert Waller) to 14% (ricmk), priceofdawn Conservative gain Solihull, Blythe: 100% Conservative hold with all but priceofdawn and ricmk having Liberal Democrat second - majority ranges from 6% (robbienicoll over Liberal Democrat) to 58% (priceofdawn over Labour)
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 1, 2018 20:52:25 GMT
15 entries for Week 1 of March with nothing from EuropeanLefty, Ruggerman and WilliamHone. Yellow Peril gets 1 additional fault for adding to 99% in Basingstoke & Deane. Bassingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: 100% Conservative hold with 11 Labour second, 3 Liberal Democrat and 1 them tied - majority ranges from 27% over Labour (Lancastrian) to 46% over Labour (ajs) Midlothian, Midlothian North: 14 SNP ahead on first preferences with 8 Conservative second and 6 Labour; Olympian95 Conservative ahead of SNP - first preference SNP lead ranges from 1% (Lancastrian & ricmk over Conservative) to 15% (k9 over Labour) East Devon, Exmouth Town: 14 Liberal Democrat majority over Conservative from 2% (Robert Waller) to 14% (ricmk), priceofdawn Conservative gain Solihull, Blythe: 100% Conservative hold with all but priceofdawn and ricmk having Liberal Democrat second - majority ranges from 6% (robbienicoll over Liberal Democrat) to 58% (priceofdawn over Labour) It's Clackmannanshire North in Clacks that you're thinking of. The Penicuik ward by-election in Midlothian isn't until 22 March. Oopps so it is, thank you. What a silly billy.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 1, 2018 21:03:18 GMT
Talking of silly billies, how on earth did I manage to add up to 99 in the Basingstoke election- 60+19+20 =100, doh!It was of course a mistype for 21 in the Lib Dem box, but I never noticed it and will have to stand now.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 2, 2018 8:57:13 GMT
On my (often faulty) calculation Exmouth is going to be a win for Hempie. Good to get that particularly tricky one out of the way, while we wait for the 3 Friday counts.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 2, 2018 11:57:58 GMT
The results are filtering through so slowly that it gives a chance to look at individual performance in turn , with only Exmouth and Solihull so far out, I make it that by a piece of neat symmetry Price of Dawn goes from last in Exmouth to top in Solihull, and Ricmk from second last to second.And put the two lots of scores together and Robert is already in his accustomed place, of course.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 2, 2018 13:54:42 GMT
I 've done my own rough calculation and maybe I'm quite wrong- but astonishingly I make it that Price of Dawn has taken the week- astonishingly only in the sense that he was in fifteenth place out of fifteen on my same calculation after Exmouth. He has either won or been very close on the other 3 to get very close anyway to the overall lead.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 2, 2018 14:33:18 GMT
Did you add the 10 for a wrong winner on to Price of Dawn in Exmouth? I made that he got about 73 faults for that prediction. Although he did indeed do very well on the other three, I think that may have dropped him down the list in a rather tight week overall. I wouldn't trust my rough figures (and I don't do any decimal points) but I can't really separate Ricmk, myself, AJS and Greenrobinhood as the top four for the week, all in the 80s. But ... a fair way to go for the month, and everyone's still in it to win it.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 2, 2018 16:12:56 GMT
Maybe I have made more errors in quick calculations than I thought- I had a quick further look and found one error which incidentally would favour you and slightly worsen PoD- it is certainly quite tightly clustered and nobody has a commanding lead or such a deficit as to be out of it-maybe the eight elections next week will sort us out. Yes I had remembered PoD's 10 point deficit for wrong winner in Exmouth, and indeed I had made his score a bit higher than you, but easy to add up something wrongly -if I can add up 3 candidates in Basingstoke and not total 100, I can obviously not be trusted with simple arithmetic.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 4, 2018 14:20:22 GMT
I hope ME is fine. I know he has important other commitments. But just in case anyone is interested in my very rough and unrounded calculations, I have
Ricmk 81 RW 81 AJS 83 Greenrobinhood 85 Yellow Peril 95 Price of Dawn 95 Right Leaning 97 Hempie 101 Andrew P 105 Dibs 105 Lancastrian 107 David Boothroyd 109 k9 111 Olympian 117 Robbie Nicoll 139
Please note: these are wrong and will no doubt soon be superseded by accurate and authoritative figures!
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 4, 2018 15:08:40 GMT
My figures rounded to one dp have me closer to 141 so far happier with yours!!
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 4, 2018 18:02:56 GMT
At about 9.45 pm on Thursday we lost our telephone / broadband when a tree came down some 200 yards away. And took out the whole of the cables. Do not know when we will be reconnected but no sign of life when we went back home from our daughter,s this afternoon. Trying to get some temporary set up going to at least catch up as much as I can in the meantime.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 5, 2018 18:46:19 GMT
Week 1Authority | Basingstoke & Deane
| Clackmannanshire | Devon East | Solihull. | Week 1 | Week 1 | Ward | Kempshott | North | Exmouth Town. | Blythe | faults | position | ajs | 18.8 | 15.4 | 28.6 | 21.8 | 84.6 | 2nd | andrewp | 24.8 | 18.5 | 23.2 | 38.9 | 105.3 | 9th | David Boothroyd. | 8.2 | 8.5 | 38.6 | 52.9 | 108.3 | 11th | dibs | 22.8 | 5.3 | 37.2 | 41.8 | 107.1 | 10th | greenrobinhood. | 10.8 | 8.5 | 40.6 | 25.8 | 85.7 | 3rd | hempie | 24.6 | 14.5 | 18.6 | 43.8 | 101.4 | 8th | k9 | 30.6 | 19.3 | 30.6 | 31.8 | 112.3 | 13th | Lancastrian | 14.6 | 9.2 | 33.2 | 51.8 | 108.8 | 12th | olympian95 | 14.8 | 16.0+10 | 34.6 | 43.8 | 119.2 | 14th | priceofdawn | 2.8 | 10.5 | 63.9+10 | 9.1 | 96.4 | 6th | ricmk | 10.8 | 8.6 | 52.6 | 15.8 | 87.8 | 4th | Right Leaning | 20.6 | 8.5 | 28.6 | 39.8 | 97.5 | 7th | robbienicoll | 22.8 | 13.3 | 42.6 | 61.8 | 140.5 | 15th | Robert Waller | 18.8 | 16.6 | 25.4 | 21.8 | 82.6 | 1st | Yellow Peril | 23.8+1 | 12.5 | 24.6 | 32.9 | 94.8 | 5th | Total faults | 270.0+1 | 185.3+10 | 522.9+10
| 533.2 | 1,532.4 |
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Objections please by 9.00 am Wednesday. There are 8 by- elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 5, 2018 20:17:11 GMT
Well done, ME, clearly working under great difficulties. And also clearly showing why it was worth waiting for, rather than relying on my inaccurate estimates!
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 6, 2018 9:35:00 GMT
Sorry to hear about the difficulties caused by the storm and weather that ME encountered. Thanks for continuing to update the competition scores.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 7, 2018 22:06:32 GMT
Predictions for this week:
Bolton MBC, Farnworth: Labour 49, Conservative 24, Farnworth & Kearsley Residents 16, UKIP 6, Liberal Democrats 3, Green 2. Dacorum BC, Northchurch: Conservative 58, Liberal Democrats 25, Labour 12, Green 5. East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill: Conservative 50, Liberal Democrats 31, Independent (Matthews) 8, Labour 7, UKIP 4. Harlow DC, Little Parndon & Hare Street: Labour 58, Conservative 35, UKIP 7. Medway UA, Rochester West: Conservative 55, Labour 29, UKIP 9, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 3. Nottingham UA, Wollaton West: Labour 48, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 4, Bus Pass Elvis 2. Rutland UA, Oakham South East: Conservative 53, Lowe (No Description) 47. Tameside MBC, Droylsden East: Labour 62, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 4.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 7, 2018 22:29:21 GMT
Bolton MBC, Farnworth: Labour 44, Conservative 8, Farnworth & Kearsley Residents 37, UKIP 4, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 2. Dacorum BC, Northchurch: Conservative 50, Liberal Democrats 35, Labour 11, Green 4. East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill: Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 25, Independent (Matthews) 24, Labour 8, UKIP 3. Harlow DC, Little Parndon & Hare Street: Labour 55, Conservative 40, UKIP 5. Medway UA, Rochester West: Conservative 53, Labour 32, UKIP 6, Liberal Democrats 6, Green 3. Nottingham UA, Wollaton West: Labour 43, Conservative 44, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 3, Bus Pass Elvis 2. Rutland UA, Oakham South East: Conservative 40, Lowe (No Description) 60. Tameside MBC, Droylsden East: Labour 62, Conservative 31, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 2.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2018 22:48:05 GMT
Bolton MBC, Farnworth: Labour 49, Conservative 22, Farnworth & Kearsley Residents 13, UKIP 12, Liberal Democrats 2, Green 2. Dacorum BC, Northchurch: Conservative 61, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 19, Green 8. East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 18, Independent (Matthews) 1, Labour 25, UKIP 2. Harlow DC, Little Parndon & Hare Street: Labour 54, Conservative 39, UKIP 7. Medway UA, Rochester West: Conservative 53, Labour 32, UKIP 7, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3. Nottingham UA, Wollaton West: Labour 48, Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 6, Green 2, Bus Pass Elvis 1. Rutland UA, Oakham South East: Conservative 59, Lowe (No Description) 41. Tameside MBC, Droylsden East: Labour 63, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 1.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 7, 2018 22:54:05 GMT
Bolton Farnworth Labour 49, Farnworth Residents 26, Con 12, UKIP 5, Lib Dem 5, Green 3 Dacorum, Northchurch Con 53, Lib Dem 30, Lab 12, Green 5 East Hampshire Petersfield Bell Hill Con 38, Ind Matthews 35, LibDem16, Lab 8, UKip 3 Harlow, Little Parndon and Hare Street Lab 59, Con 34, UKIP 7 Medway, Rochester West Con 49, Lab 34, UKIP 8, Lib Dem 6, Green 3 Nottingham, Wollaton West Con 46, Lab 42, Lib Dem 6, Green 4, Bus Pass Elvis 2 Rutland, Oakham SE Lowe 52, Con 48 Tameside Droylesden East Lab 63, Con 29, Lib Dem 5, Green 3
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