Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 30, 2012 10:57:08 GMT
Despite the UKIP surge, the Labour vote share was actually still up slightly. Tories and Lib Dems collapsed, BNP down slightly too. Respect save their deposit and beat the Tories in what would have been a decent result if they hadn't spent the last few weeks ramping up their hopes of victory... At least this shows that the UKIP vote is mainly gathered from the anti politics people and Toiries. It shows nothing of the kind. Even ignoring differential turnout there could be quite a degree of churn involved in those figures. I imagine that Labour might have attracted quite a few votes from people who had previously voted LD (and possibly BNP), but will also have lost some to Respect and perhaps to UKIP who were picking up the most protest votes.
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 30, 2012 11:30:23 GMT
The election game for me was a bit hit and miss: My guesses at majorities were:
Rotherham: 5,190 Middlesborough: 9,720 Croydon North: 13,540
Was very pleased with my Rotherham guess. The other two were 1,000-2,000 too high.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 11:33:22 GMT
At least this shows that the UKIP vote is mainly gathered from the anti politics people and Toiries. It shows nothing of the kind. Even ignoring differential turnout there could be quite a degree of churn involved in those figures. I imagine that Labour might have attracted quite a few votes from people who had previously voted LD (and possibly BNP), but will also have lost some to Respect and perhaps to UKIP who were picking up the most protest votes. the point you have missed is that we can compensate fro churn by attracting former LD and dont forget former Labour voters who never voted in 2005/2010. The Tories have no such ability to compensate.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 30, 2012 11:52:55 GMT
It shows nothing of the kind. Even ignoring differential turnout there could be quite a degree of churn involved in those figures. I imagine that Labour might have attracted quite a few votes from people who had previously voted LD (and possibly BNP), but will also have lost some to Respect and perhaps to UKIP who were picking up the most protest votes. the point you have missed is that we can compensate fro churn by attracting former LD and dont forget former Labour voters who never voted in 2005/2010. The Tories have no such ability to compensate. Which is a completely different point to the one you raised in your previous post.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 30, 2012 12:01:59 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 12:05:11 GMT
well a few Labour may be attracted to UKIP BUT I think the number is small and we cover it from others. Overall in the figures we got an higher % share in what was a difficult circumstance when some thought (including our own side) it woul dbe much closer.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Nov 30, 2012 12:40:44 GMT
That's probably a decent result for Labour given all they suffered during the campaign. Otherwise, in a mid term content while in opposition, they should have polled around 60%
After 2 runner up places, I wondered if Jean Collins could have eyed second spot on Yorkshire Euro list but then I see there's Jonathan Arnott.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 30, 2012 12:55:09 GMT
That's probably a decent result for Labour given all they suffered during the campaign. Otherwise, in a mid term content while in opposition, they should have polled around 60% After 2 runner up places, I wondered if Jean Collins could have eyed second spot on Yorkshire Euro list but then I see there's Jonathan Arnott. UKIP must have at least a decent chance of 2 seats in Yorkshire come 2014, so they'd just need to de-select Bloom and they could get both Arnott and Collins
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 30, 2012 13:01:45 GMT
That's probably a decent result for Labour given all they suffered during the campaign. Otherwise, in a mid term content while in opposition, they should have polled around 60% After 2 runner up places, I wondered if Jean Collins could have eyed second spot on Yorkshire Euro list but then I see there's Jonathan Arnott. UKIP must have at least a decent chance of 2 seats in Yorkshire come 2014, so they'd just need to de-select Bloom and they could get both Arnott and Collins That would probably be regarded as dangerous by farage.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 30, 2012 15:25:44 GMT
UKIP must have at least a decent chance of 2 seats in Yorkshire come 2014, so they'd just need to de-select Bloom and they could get both Arnott and Collins That would probably be regarded as dangerous by farage. Spot on.
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Post by nord on Nov 30, 2012 16:04:06 GMT
English Democrats are doing surprisingly well now, following on from the PCC elections. How have they managed this? Have they had the backing of someone wealthy to boost their campaign resources? Incredibly bad LibDem result. Look at their most recent local council election results. They poll around 1%. Next year they will certainly loose their mayor and single council seat in Hertfordshire, and that will leave them with two council seats (there is already talk that one of those is already leaving the party). ED's were also saying they would beat both UKIP and BNP in Rotherham, but they came nowhere close and lost their deposit.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 17:48:54 GMT
The story of ED's is more about the disaster the LD's had
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 1, 2012 0:34:18 GMT
Looks like Rotherham Council haven't managed to provide clarity on the result itself: I'm sure the returning officer said "9,866" but the website says "9,966": www.rotherham.gov.uk/electionresults
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Post by johnloony on Dec 1, 2012 1:56:30 GMT
Looks like Rotherham Council haven't managed to provide clarity on the result itself: I'm sure the returning officer said "9,866" but the website says "9,966": www.rotherham.gov.uk/electionresultsThe numbers add up to 21,450; there were 46 spoilt votes, and the number of ballot papers issued was 21,496. Therefore it seems that 9,966 is correct. Otherwise, there would be a discrepancy of 100.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2012 10:49:39 GMT
Looks like Rotherham Council haven't managed to provide clarity on the result itself: I'm sure the returning officer said "9,866" but the website says "9,966": www.rotherham.gov.uk/electionresultsWikipedia has the higher figure, FWIW. Yes, errors by the results announcer are not unknown - there was one at Copeland in the 1997 GE.
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 1, 2012 11:42:51 GMT
Looks like Rotherham Council haven't managed to provide clarity on the result itself: I'm sure the returning officer said "9,866" but the website says "9,966": www.rotherham.gov.uk/electionresultsI heard the result announced on Radio Sheffield, and that's where I got the 9866 from. The 9966 was already circulating on Twitter before the announcement was broadcast. I'd believe the higher figure, for the reasons John gives and because I'd have thought they'd have corrected the website by now if it had been wrong. There's a discrepancy for TUSC too.
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 1, 2012 12:33:12 GMT
Looks like Rotherham Council haven't managed to provide clarity on the result itself: I'm sure the returning officer said "9,866" but the website says "9,966": www.rotherham.gov.uk/electionresultsThis is inexcusable. The BBC website and today's Telegraph are giving 9,866: for such reasons there is danger that the "incorrect" result gets embedded in the record.
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Post by BossMan on Dec 1, 2012 18:16:38 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2012 20:40:00 GMT
The BNP candidate has genuine name recognition and popularity (inasmuch as any BNPer can) locally - a generic candidate would have struggled to save their deposit.
In every by-election they have stood since the GE their share has fallen - and the comments of nord (though you ignore him) indicate that they expected to do much better.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2012 20:44:46 GMT
Nothing that exciting, alas - he was just ramping up their chances and saying there was "no way" UKIP would beat them
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