Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,503
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 7, 2017 23:50:37 GMT
Think you guys need to change your posters now that the Reverend Timmy has gone..... I think that's a pre-leader Tim photo. Anyway he hasn't gone anywhere he's just not leader now plus, if you notice the source, it's an ALDC tweet not the national party and Tim is a former councillor... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2017 23:53:46 GMT
Think you guys need to change your posters now that the Reverend Timmy has gone..... I think that's a pre-leader Tim photo. Anyway he hasn't gone anywhere he's just not leader now plus, if you notice the source, it's an ALDC tweet not the national party and Tim is a former councillor... and a former leader and possibly will be a former MP as well. Just because its the ALDC that's no excuse you need to be promoting Vince 'cause lets face it he is the only asset you got now |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 7, 2017 23:56:55 GMT
Enfield, Enfield Highway - Labour hold
Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | Labour | 1,619 | 69.8% | +23.1% | +22.9% | +28.7% | +28.2% | Conservative | 620 | 26.7% | +7.4% | +9.2% | -1.1% | +0.8% | Green | 79 | 3.4% | -6.0% | -6.5%% | -2.6% | -2.8% | UKIP |
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| -17.8% | -18.7% | -7.3% | -7.7% | BNP |
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| -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.2% | -6.4% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -11.5% | -12.1% | Total votes | 2,318 |
| 53% | 56% | 32% | 33% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 7¾% / 6¾% since 2014 and 15% / 13¾% since 2010 Council now 40 Labour, 22 Conservative, 1 Independent North Devon, Newport - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 390 | 38.8% | +7.1% | +9.0% | +8.0% | +8.2% | Conservative | 373 | 37.1% | -2.8% | -6.0% | -1.5% | -3.4% | Green | 159 | 15.8% | -12.6% | -11.3% | -6.0% | -3.2% | Labour | 83 | 8.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.6% | -1.6% | Total votes | 1,005 |
| 39% | 45% | 62% | 69% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 5% / 7½% since 2015 and 4¾% / 5¾% since 2011
Council now 18 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 8 Independent, 3 South Molton Independent
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,506 
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Post by Foggy on Dec 8, 2017 2:07:19 GMT
I think that's a pre-leader Tim photo. Anyway he hasn't gone anywhere he's just not leader now plus, if you notice the source, it's an ALDC tweet not the national party and Tim is a former councillor... and a former leader and possibly will be a former MP as well. Just because its the ALDC that's no excuse you need to be promoting Vince 'cause lets face it he is the only asset you got now I do believe it was pointed out in the General UK Politics sub-forum some months ago that Jo Swinson is also in possession of assets. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 8, 2017 9:04:49 GMT
So, in Enfield Labour takes all of the BNP and UKIP vote!!!
Both the majors up and Greens down, UKIP and LDs no-shows. Good result for Labour.
Conservative poll holding up despite the chaos and near mutiny internally.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 8, 2017 9:32:40 GMT
So, in Enfield Labour takes all of the BNP and UKIP vote!!! To be fair both of those party have some fairly left wing, socialist economic policies (hence why I've never support either one). Given that our vote share also rose it seems that at least some of thos people will have seen the light. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 8, 2017 9:37:43 GMT
So, in Enfield Labour takes all of the BNP and UKIP vote!!! To be fair both of those party have some fairly left wing, socialist economic policies (hence why I've never support either one). Given that our vote share also rose it seems that at least some of thos people will have seen the light. I am well aware of the cross-currents of churn. I was being facetious. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 8, 2017 9:40:53 GMT
It was a multi vacancy contest in 2014 so comparisons need to be seen in that light. There was one UKIP candidate, one Green candidate and one BNP candidate. Some voters will have voted for all three of these. Clearly a large chunk of voters voted for the UKIP candidate and gave their other two votes to Conservative candidates (who polled 842, 788 and 547 votes - a hell of a difference between top and bottom). The electorate will have changed a fair bit in three and a half years. There is no meaningful way of discerning from the figures what actual number of people who voted UKIP in 2014 voted Labour this time (how many have moved out, how many didn't vote this time etc etc)
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 8, 2017 9:57:39 GMT
So, in Enfield Labour takes all of the BNP and UKIP vote!!! To be fair both of those party have some fairly left wing, socialist economic policies (hence why I've never support either one). Given that our vote share also rose it seems that at least some of thos people will have seen the light. So the sole reason why the Beast would never vote UKIP or BNP is that they are too left wing for him. Says it all really. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 8, 2017 10:01:33 GMT
To be fair both of those party have some fairly left wing, socialist economic policies (hence why I've never support either one). Given that our vote share also rose it seems that at least some of thos people will have seen the light. So the sole reason why the Beast would never vote UKIP or BNP is that they are too left wing for him. Says it all really. Well apart from economics, there's no point supporting a party that is a fringe movement and will win a couple of seats under FPTP in the best of times, especially since I live in a marginal seat. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 8, 2017 10:09:25 GMT
It was a multi vacancy contest in 2014 so comparisons need to be seen in that light. There was one UKIP candidate, one Green candidate and one BNP candidate. Some voters will have voted for all three of these. Clearly a large chunk of voters voted for the UKIP candidate and gave their other two votes to Conservative candidates (who polled 842, 788 and 547 votes - a hell of a difference between top and bottom). The electorate will have changed a fair bit in three and a half years. There is no meaningful way of discerning from the figures what actual number of people who voted UKIP in 2014 voted Labour this time (how many have moved out, how many didn't vote this time etc etc) In 2014 there were 3,498 valid ballot papers in Enfield Highway. The "top" Labour candidate secured 58.1% of these whilst the average Labour vote was 55.7%. Similarly the "top" Conservative candidate secured 24.1% whilst the average was 20.8% - with the third candidate a long way behind. In last night's by-election the Labour share of 69.8% was 11.7% / 14.1% up on 2014 with the Conservative share likewise up 2.6% / 5.9% giving a swing of 4½% / 4% - somewhat lower than the method used in the tables above. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,462
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 8, 2017 11:55:29 GMT
It was a multi vacancy contest in 2014 so comparisons need to be seen in that light. There was one UKIP candidate, one Green candidate and one BNP candidate. Some voters will have voted for all three of these. Clearly a large chunk of voters voted for the UKIP candidate and gave their other two votes to Conservative candidates (who polled 842, 788 and 547 votes - a hell of a difference between top and bottom). The electorate will have changed a fair bit in three and a half years. There is no meaningful way of discerning from the figures what actual number of people who voted UKIP in 2014 voted Labour this time (how many have moved out, how many didn't vote this time etc etc) In 2014 there were 3,498 valid ballot papers in Enfield Highway. The "top" Labour candidate secured 58.1% of these whilst the average Labour vote was 55.7%. Similarly the "top" Conservative candidate secured 24.1% whilst the average was 20.8% - with the third candidate a long way behind. In last night's by-election the Labour share of 69.8% was 11.7% / 14.1% up on 2014 with the Conservative share likewise up 2.6% / 5.9% giving a swing of 4½% / 4% - somewhat lower than the method used in the tables above. Yes, the same sort of setup has exaggerated the apparent swing to the Tories in a few byelections in their "safe" areas recently. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 8, 2017 12:03:45 GMT
I think that's a pre-leader Tim photo. Anyway he hasn't gone anywhere he's just not leader now plus, if you notice the source, it's an ALDC tweet not the national party and Tim is a former councillor... and a former leader and possibly will be a former MP as well. Just because its the ALDC that's no excuse you need to be promoting Vince 'cause lets face it he is the only asset you got now All MPs will be former MPs in due course ... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2017 13:30:26 GMT
and a former leader and possibly will be a former MP as well. Just because its the ALDC that's no excuse you need to be promoting Vince 'cause lets face it he is the only asset you got now All MPs will be former MPs in due course ... Some sooner than they think.... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2017 13:33:42 GMT
Tp be fair, Enfield North has been trending Labour for quite some time.
On current boundaries the seat would likely have been a Conservative gain in 2001 given that it excludes Ponders End which was the strongest Labour area in the 1997-2010 version of the seat.
The lacklustre Tory majority on these highly favourable boundaries in 2010 tells you something.
As it stands, I think Enfield North will likely go the way of Edmonton long-term.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2017 13:37:54 GMT
I wouldn't draw too much from the recent by-elections in Croydon and Enfield.
The Devonshire contest was interesting though given the swing to the LDs in North Devon in June.
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,090
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 8, 2017 14:11:57 GMT
and a former leader and possibly will be a former MP as well. Just because its the ALDC that's no excuse you need to be promoting Vince 'cause lets face it he is the only asset you got now I do believe it was pointed out in the General UK Politics sub-forum some months ago that Jo Swinson is also in possession of assets. If they want the gay vote they should include a photo of Cllr. Carl Cashman of Knowsley..... |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 8, 2017 14:32:38 GMT
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,090
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 8, 2017 14:54:45 GMT
Indeed not.....though I like the artwork. LD Carl is decorative in different ways (and no, I'm not going to post a pic - if anyone wants to perve over him, then you'll just have to do a google image search |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 8, 2017 17:14:20 GMT
All MPs will be former MPs in due course ... Some sooner than they think.... Possibly more than they think, but I'm not sure what contribution is made to this board (except for cluttering it up) by individuals reciting their conviction that A, B or C is facing extinction/ a triumphant future. Just don't see the point. |
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