Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2017 8:04:14 GMT
I wouldnt say it was interesting if only confirming the result in the GE
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,272
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Post by YL on Oct 20, 2017 8:17:58 GMT
Leigh and Nottingham North swinging to the Tories in the GE and in local by-elections is interesting. Only one of the three Nottingham North wards swung to the Tories. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2017 9:05:28 GMT
The one where they have got someone elected in the recent past, and presumably where they put the effort in. I suspect Labour will be happy with the result nonetheless.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 20, 2017 10:02:57 GMT
Turnout in Meopham North is 31.86%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2017 10:08:34 GMT
So in time for lunch then
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 20, 2017 10:14:09 GMT
Turnout in Meopham North is 31.86%. So just over 1,200 votes to count. Lower Sheering counted 272 in less than half an hour, probably nearer 20 minutes, last night. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 20, 2017 10:20:10 GMT
GRAVESHAM Meopham North
Gary Harding (Conservative) 721
John Death (Liberal Democrat) 192
Doug Christie (Labour) 155
Tina Brooker (UK Independence Party) 59
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2017 10:20:42 GMT
Con hold
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2017 10:22:59 GMT
Turnout in Meopham North is 31.86%. Lower Sheering counted 272 in less than half an hour, probably nearer 20 minutes, last night. I make it 1,127. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 20, 2017 10:34:09 GMT
Good result for Death
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 20, 2017 10:43:09 GMT
Epping Forest. Lower Sheering - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2009 B | since 2007 | | Conservative | 220 | 80.9% | +11.0% | +24.2% | +4.4% | +5.1% | Liberal Democrat | 52 | 19.1% | from nowhere | +7.4% | -4.4% | -5.1% | Labour |
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| -30.1% |
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| Independent |
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| -25.0% |
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| Green |
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| -6.6% |
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| Total votes | 272 |
| 23% | 37% | 69% | 50% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 8½% since 2011, ~ 4½% since 2009 by-election and ~ 5% since 2007 Council now 35 Conservative, 13 Resident, 4 Independent, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 UKIP Gravesham, Meopham North - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 721 | 64.0% | +6.7% | +6.5% | +9.3% | +16.7% | -7.1% | -8.0% | Liberal Democrat | 192 | 17.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +12.3% | +6.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 155 | 13.8% | -7.0% | -4.8% | -0.3% | +5.6% | -15.2% | -14.3% | UKIP | 59 | 5.2% | -16.7% | -18.7% | -21.4% | -28.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,127 |
| 41% | 44% | 147% | 82% | 66% | 71% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 7% / 5¾% since 2015, 4¾% since 2012 by-election, 5½% since 2011 by-election and 4% / 3¼% since 2011 Council now 24 Conservative, 20 Labour Hartlepool, Seaton - Putting Hartlepool First gain from Independent| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 B | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Putting Hartlepool 1st | 474 | 31.6% | +3.2% | from nowhere | +11.2% | -6.9% | +16.5% | +18.1% | Independent Little | 425 | 28.3% | +2.1% | +15.6% | from nowhere | +11.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 275 | 18.3% | +4.8% | -4.9% | +0.9% | -4.4% | +5.2% | +4.0% | Conservative | 180 | 12.0% | +6.0% | -0.9% | +4.5% | +3.8% | +4.7% | +3.5% | UKIP | 148 | 9.9% | -13.5% | -13.8% | -19.9% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.2% | Green
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| -2.7%
| -3.6%
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.7%
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| Other Independents |
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| -24.1% | -25.0% |
| -53.5% | -50.6% | Total | 1,502 |
| 73% | 36% | 79% | 131% | 69% | 81% |
Swing Independent Little to Putting Hartlepool First ~ ½% since 2016
Council now 18 Labour, 6 UKIP, 3 Conservative, 3 Putting Hartlepool First, 2 Independent, 1 Vacant
Lincoln, Carholme - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Labour | 922 | 63.4% | +6.3% | +4.5% | Conservative | 368 | 25.3% | +5.2% | +6.2% | Green | 83 | 5.7% | -8.5% | -6.8% | Liberal Democrat | 82 | 5.6% | -2.9% | -3.8% | Total votes | 1,455 |
| 71% | 78% |
Swing ~ ½% to Labour (top candidate) or ~ ¾% to Conservative (average votes) Council now 26 Labour, 6 Conservative, 1 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 20, 2017 10:44:05 GMT
Nottingham, Basford - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 1,409 | 68.2% | +19.4% | +19.3% | +12.1% | +12.8% | Conservative | 408 | 19.7% | -0.3% | +2.5% | +1.5% | +1.2% | UKIP | 119 | 5.8% | -10.3% | -11.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 81 | 3.9% | -8.3% | -9.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 49 | 2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -10.2% | -9.8% | TUSC |
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| -2.8% | -3.1% |
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| Independent |
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| -13.0%
| -13.9%
| Total votes | 2,066 |
| 29% | 32% | 47% | 51% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 9¾% / 8½% since 2015 and 5¼% / 5¾% since 2011 Council now 51 Labour, 3 Conservative, 1 Independent Nottingham, Bestwood - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 1,280 | 63.4% | +7.7% | +8.2% | -2.9% | -1.0% | UKIP | 301 | 14.9% | -7.0% | -7.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 297 | 14.7% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -5.5% | -6.3% | Liberal Democrat | 57 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -10.6% | -11.8% | Green | 50 | 2.5% | -4.1% | -4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Bus Pass Elvis | 34 | 1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,019 |
| 33% | 37% | 55% | 59% |
Swing UKIP to Labour ~ 7¼% / 7¾% since 2015 as well as Conservative to Labour 4½% / 4¾% since 2015 and 1¾% / 2½% since 2011
Council now 51 Labour, 3 Conservative, 1 Independent
Nottingham, Bulwell Forest - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 1,420 | 54.4% | +8.1% | +9.1% | -5.8% | -7.9% | Conservative | 966 | 37.0% | +17.2% | +16.7% | +8.4% | +9.6% | UKIP | 141 | 5.4% | -14.6% | -14.5% | -1.4% | -0.2% | Green | 52 | 2.0% | -5.6% | -5.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 31 | 1.2% | -3.0% | -3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -2.1% | -2.2% | -4.3% | -4.6% | Total votes | 2,610 |
| 38% | 39% | 53% | 57% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 4½% / 3¾% since 2015 and 7% / 8¾% since 2011
Council now 51 Labour, 3 Conservative, 1 Independent
South Oxfordshire, Haseley Brook - Conservative hold
| Party | 2017 result | 2015 result | | Conservative | unopposed | 66.8% | Liberal Democrat |
| 16.8% | Labour |
| 16.4% | Total votes |
| 2,301 |
Council now 33 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Resident
Wigan, Astley, Mosley Common - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 773 | 46.0% | -5.3% | +3.8% | -21.7% | -24.0% | Conservative | 604 | 35.9% | +11.4% | +5.2% | +3.6% | +15.3% | UKIP | 185 | 11.0% | -13.2% | -11.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 73 | 4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | -5.1% | Green | 46 | 2.7% | from nowhere | -2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,681 |
| 56% | 29% | 63% | 65% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 8¼% since 2016, ~ ¾% since 2015, ~ 12¾% since 2014 and ~ 19½% since 2012
Council now 65 Labour, 5 Conservative, 5 Independent
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Post by timokane on Oct 20, 2017 14:32:34 GMT
I haven't heard the suggestion that Mike Smith didn't like his appearances. He did decline to sign the licence extension before he died, but I don't think the reasons have been given. Also not sure if his next of kin were involved. I'd heard there was a long-standing grievance not entirely unconnected to the Beeb's refusal to repeat Ghostwatch. No idea how true that is. Not much point the BBC refusing to repeat something if it is available for free on YouTube. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 20, 2017 20:27:55 GMT
So what do we make of the "big two" only getting 30.3% between them in Hartlepool? (probably not much, tbh!) won't be happy! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 20, 2017 22:30:15 GMT
I'd heard there was a long-standing grievance not entirely unconnected to the Beeb's refusal to repeat Ghostwatch. No idea how true that is. Not much point the BBC refusing to repeat something if it is available for free on YouTube. I believe the dispute is more to do with the loss of repeat fees. |
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Post by pingualoty on Oct 20, 2017 22:35:26 GMT
Epping Forest. Lower Sheering - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2009 B | since 2007 | | Conservative | 220 | 80.9% | +11.0% | +24.2% | +4.4% | +5.1% | Liberal Democrat | 52 | 19.1% | from nowhere | +7.4% | -4.4% | -5.1% | Labour |
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| -30.1% |
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| Independent |
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| -25.0% |
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| Green |
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| -6.6% |
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| Total votes | 272 |
| 23% | 37% | 69% | 50% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 8½% since 2011, ~ 4½% since 2009 by-election and ~ 5% since 2007 Council now 35 Conservative, 13 Resident, 4 Independent, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 UKIP Gravesham, Meopham North - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 721 | 64.0% | +6.7% | +6.5% | +9.3% | +16.7% | -7.1% | -8.0% | Liberal Democrat | 192 | 17.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +12.3% | +6.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 155 | 13.8% | -7.0% | -4.8% | -0.3% | +5.6% | -15.2% | -14.3% | UKIP | 59 | 5.2% | -16.7% | -18.7% | -21.4% | -28.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,127 |
| 41% | 44% | 147% | 82% | 66% | 71% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 7% / 5¾% since 2015, 4¾% since 2012 by-election, 5½% since 2011 by-election and 4% / 3¼% since 2011 Council now 24 Conservative, 20 Labour Hartlepool, Seaton - Putting Hartlepool First gain from Independent| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 B | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Putting Hartlepool 1st | 474 | 31.6% | +3.2% | from nowhere | +11.2% | -6.9% | +16.5% | +18.1% | Independent Little | 425 | 28.3% | +2.1% | +15.6% | from nowhere | +11.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 275 | 18.3% | +4.8% | -4.9% | +0.9% | -4.4% | +5.2% | +4.0% | Conservative | 180 | 12.0% | +6.0% | -0.9% | +4.5% | +3.8% | +4.7% | +3.5% | UKIP | 148 | 9.9% | -13.5% | -13.8% | -19.9% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.2% | Green
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.7%
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| Other Independents |
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| -24.1% | -25.0% |
| -53.5% | -50.6% | Total | 1,502 |
| 73% | 36% | 79% | 131% | 69% | 81% |
Swing Independent Little to Putting Hartlepool First ~ ½% since 2016
Council now 18 Labour, 6 UKIP, 3 Conservative, 3 Putting Hartlepool First, 2 Independent, 1 Vacant
Lincoln, Carholme - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | sine 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Labour | 922 | 63.4% | +6.3% | +4.5% | Conservative | 368 | 25.3% | +5.2% | +6.2% | Green | 83 | 5.7% | -8.5% | -6.8% | Liberal Democrat | 82 | 5.6% | -2.9% | -3.8% | Total votes | 1,455 |
| 71% | 78% |
Swing ~ ½% to Labour (top candidate) or ~ ¾% to Conservative (average votes) Council now 26 Labour, 6 Conservative, 1 Independent May I ask how you calculated the Carholme swings? I may be getting confused as it was an all out election and there were differing amounts of candidates per party but I would have said it was a Labour: +0.6%, Conservative: +4.9%, Green: -8.2%, Lib Dems: +2.2% |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 20, 2017 23:38:07 GMT
May I ask how you calculated the Carholme swings? I may be getting confused as it was an all out election and there were differing amounts of candidates per party but I would have said it was a Labour: +0.6%, Conservative: +4.9%, Green: -8.2%, Lib Dems: +2.2%
The only previous election on these boundaries was in 2016 when there were 3 candidates each for Conservative, Labour, Green and just 1 Liberal Democrat.
The top candidates polled 1,176 Labour, 414 Conservative, 293 Green and 176 Liberal Democrat or 2,059 votes between them
- so percentage wise 2016 was Labour 57.1%, Conservative 20.1%, Green 14.2%, Liberal Democrat 8.5%
- and the changes at the by-election were Labour +6.3%, Conservative +5.2%, Green -8.5% and Liberal Democrat -2.9%
as the two top parties in both elections were Labour and Conservative, the swing is meaningful
- it is half the difference in the change of the two shares, ie half of 1.1% or ~ 0.5% from Conservative to Labour.
The 3 Labour candidates in 2016 polled 1,176, 1,076 and 1,029 to give an average of 1,094 to the nearest whole number although the computer works to several decimal place. Likewise the Conservative vote was 414 / 341 / 311 for an average of 355 and the Green vote was 293 / 223 / 180 for an average of 232. The sole Liberal Democrat has an average of 176, the same as their top vote.
- so on an average basis the 2016 shares were Labour 58.9%, Conservative 19.1%, Green 12.5%, Liberal Democrat 9.5%
- and the changes at the by-election were Labour +4.5%, Conservative +6.2%, Green -6.8% and Liberal Democrat -3.8%
this time the Conservative share increases by more than Labour so there is a swing to the Conservatives of half of 1.7%, ~ 0.85% or some ¾%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2017 10:11:46 GMT
Just realised I know the new Nottingham Bestwood councillor... she's from colne valley. Small world. On that tangent, I only learned last week that the Independent candidate in the recent Fleetwood (Wyre DC) byelection - who had the same name as my recent (2013-17) Cumbria CC member (Con) - had the same name because they were actually the same person. Not a total surprise tbh, they never seemed a very ideologically committed Tory. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 22, 2017 12:04:59 GMT
Just realised I know the new Nottingham Bestwood councillor... she's from colne valley. Small world. On that tangent, I only learned last week that the Independent candidate in the recent Fleetwood (Wyre DC) byelection - who had the same name as my recent (2013-17) Cumbria CC member (Con) - had the same name because they were actually the same person. Not a total surprise tbh, they never seemed a very ideologically committed Tory. If that's B Crawford, isn't that all part of the general meltdown among Tories in that part of the world? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 23, 2017 17:25:55 GMT
Leigh and Nottingham North swinging to the Tories in the GE and in local by-elections is interesting. Only one of the three Nottingham North wards swung to the Tories. I think that is actually more interesting. It's not 'interesting' to have your prejudices confirmed. It is interesting to see the ways in which it might be more complicated than that. |
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