yes congratulations to Hempie who has a sufficient lead to make it most unlikely he could be caught,whatever those last two results produce.
Yes, I think I may have closed the gap with the last two results but I have Hempie still winning the week and extending his lead for the month. Reward for his consistent excellence in prediction. I let myself down with an awful underestimation of the local group in Hucknall. They had only managed about 9% in a very similar division in the May 2017 county elections.
Would someone be able to explain how the scoring works? I was thinking of joining the competition next month, so had a go at predictions for last night. I'd be interested to work out how I would have scored.
The 'faults' in Middleenglander's table above are just the sum of how many % points contestants are out when compared with the actual party shares. So, to take the simplest example this week, in Tamworth (Bolehall) if the result were Labour 53%, Conservative 47%, and you predicted Labour 60 and Conservative 40, you would score 14 faults, 7 for each party. All candidates are predicted, and the calculation is to one decimal point. There is a 10 point penalty for predicting the wrong winner, and penalties too for late entry after 9 am on the day of the election and for not adding up to 100% per contest.
Do please come and have a go! You can try as a dry run next week, if you like. The contest is on a monthly basis, but there is also kudos for performance in an individual week. I find it a good way of extending both my feeling for how well the various parties are doing at present, and of my knowledge of this country of ours.
I think its not just andrewp who will need to ask how things work! Given my recent form maybe I should be asking the question in a general sense, but I do have a specific question. Next week i.e. the 26th not the 19th, we have a complication that I am yet to encounter, and I think we will all need to be clear on the rules. There is a double-vacancy election, and one in which one party (the Tories,in fact) are only fielding a single candidate whereas 3 other parties are fielding 2. I understand we are to quote for the parties not the individual candidates, but does that mean we halve the Tory vote in this instance, on the basis that their potential second candidate scored 0, which would then with an average vote for each of the other three pairs will add up to 100? What has been previous practice?
Post by David Boothroyd on Oct 19, 2017 0:04:11 GMT
EPPING FOREST Lower Sheering: C 70, L Dem 30 GRAVESHAM Meopham North: C 53, Lab 25, L Dem 12, UKIP 10 HARTLEPOOL Seaton: PHF 32, Ind 27, Lab 20, UKIP 14, C 7 LINCOLN Carholme: Lab 66, C 20, GP 9, L Dem 5 NOTTINGHAM Basford: Lab 59, C 26, UKIP 8, GP 5, L Dem 2 NOTTINGHAM Bestwood: Lab 57, C 31, UKIP 4, Elvis 3, L Dem 3, GP 2 NOTTINGHAM Bulwell Forest: Lab 62, C 27, L Dem 4, UKIP 4, GP 3 WIGAN Astley Mosley Common: Lab 50, C 33, UKIP 10, GP 4, L Dem 3
Post by middleenglander on Oct 19, 2017 14:20:43 GMT
8 entries again this week with andrewp joining for a first time but kingsepron sending their apologies.
Epping Forest, Lower Sheering: 7 Conservative hold, share from 60% (Lancastrian) to 72% (Robert Waller) with Williamhone Liberal Democrat gain Gravesham, Meopham North: 7 Conservative hold, majority from 31% (Andrewp & Lancastrian) to 46% (Robert Waller) with Williamhone Labour gain Hartlepool, Seaton: 4 Putting Hartlepool First gain from Independent, andrewp, Lancastrian & Yellow Peril Independent hold, William Hone Labour gain Lincoln, Carholme: 100% Labour hold, majority from 12% (Williamhone over Liberal Democrat) to 46% (andrewp, David Boothroyd & Lancastrian over Conservative) Nottingham, Basford: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 29% (Williamhone) to 50% (andrewp) Nottingham, Bestwood: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 26% (David Boothroyd)to 49% (hempie) Nottingham, Bulwell Forest: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 24% (Williamhone) to 43% (andrewp) Wigan, Astley Moseley Common: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 17% (David Boothroyd) to 41% (Robert Waller)
By my rough calculations for the first seven out of eight declared: The first three positions for the month remain the same, though I may have closed up on Hempie slightly. Greenrobinhood and Yellow Peril are doing very well for the week.