Icelandic parliamentary election, 2017

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No date yet, but probably in early November (see the Iceland thread on the IP board).

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The president has agreed to hold an election. Bjarni Ben wants to hold it on Saturday the 4th of November (in seven weeks). 

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Bjarni Ben has tendered his resignation, but hasn't asked to get the Althing dissolved (he wants all parties to agree to a date), but the president has asked him to stay on until a new government can be formed. So somewhat messy situation if Vidreisn insists he steps down. The president's last meeting with a party leader is at 16.00, and he will presumably issue a statement afterwards.

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Pirate leader Birgitta Jónsdottír says she won't run in the election and her old rival Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson, who stayed out of the last election (officially to pursue grassroots activities and build bridges to civil society etc., but mostly because he can not stand Birgitta), will run. He is by far their most popular politician and not associated with a leftist image, so that could be a game changer, but they are now competing with the Peoples Party for the "non-political"/anti-establishmet vote.

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On request of the president the two BF ministers Óttarr Proppé and Björt Ólafsdóttir stay in the caretaker government until the election. Viðreisn haven't said if they are willing to stay on.

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Benedikt Jóhannesson says Viðreisn will tell the president after the week-end whether they'll remain in a caretaker government until the election, but says "the government cooperation has ended" and there will be no cabinet meetings if they do. He denies that there has been talks about an IP, PP, Viðreisn government (a fairly ridiculous but persistent rumor) and claim the election will be between the new parties prepared to make "systemic changes" and a old status quo parties as a response to Bjarni Ben's comments about regretting "going into government with small and inexperienced parties not anchored in a people's movement".

I suppose they will end up staying in since their allies in BF have promised to do so, but it will look bad if they walk back from their demand that Bjarni Ben and Andersen step down.

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To sum up the situation:

Bjarni Ben tendered his resignation, but the president asked him to stay on as leader of an interim government until the election (standard procedure). So he is still PM.

Bjarni Ben did not ask for the Althing to be dissolved and the election hasn't been called yet. He merely suggested it should be on 4 November (something no one seems to object to), and said he would "discuss it" with the other parties. He asked PP to step into the government as replacement for BF, but their parliamentary group has twice rejected this. The whole new coalition attempt seems desperate because Viðreisn have said they can not accept Bjarni Ben continuing as PM as long as the matter is under investigation, and PP and Viðreisn disagree about all matters related to foreign trade, fisheries, agriculture etc. But Bjarni Ben may think Viðreisn are bluffing.

Viðreisn haven't accepted to stay in the interim government, BF have on request from the president, but Bjarni Ben said on Friday he can not accept the BF ministers staying on and its unclear if this has changed.

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The convicted lawyer didn't just get a letter of recommendation from Benedikt Sveinsson, but also from Sveinn Eyjólfur Matthíasson, who is CEO of the bus company Kynnisferðir (Reykjavík Excursions, the airline shuttle Flybus etc.) where he had previously worked; a company owned by Bjarni Benediktsson's family. After he was reported by his stepdaughter the man sought legal counseling from Bjarni Benediktsson (then a practicing attorney) and the attorney Brynjar Níelsson, who today is an MP for IP and chair of the Constitutional and Supervisory Committee, which deals with matters of "reinstatement" of convicted sex offenders.

It seems that a new budget can be approved after the election (if a new government is formed fast..), so it will be an issue during the campaign. LG and SDA probably have their own "shadow budget" ready if the centre-left were to win.

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Bjarni Benediktsson is now said to have given up on forming a new government and he is expected to ask the president to dissolve the Althing tomorrow and hold elections at 28 October. The 45 days is just the default option if the parties couldn't agree as it is the maximum campaign period. "The President of the Republic may dissolve Althingi. A new election must take place within 45 days from the announcement of the dissolution". LG were among the parties that wanted a short campaign period (probably to get a week more for budget work if they win).

The Speaker Unn­ur Brá Kon­ráðsdótt­ir (IP) is going to meet the party chairmen at 12:30 tomorrow and they will then decide whether to resume work or make a proposal to suspend parliament (which should be a formality). After that Bjarni Ben will inform the president.

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The advisory board of Viðreisn has approved the party can stay in the interim government until the election, so they probably will.

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Both BF and Viðreisn will stay in the government.

Bjarni Ben will meet the president at 1 a.m. and unless Gudni Th. has any objections the election will be 28 October. This is the same week-end IP (and SDA) had party conferences and it makes it easy to move those. If the election had been 4 November IP might have been stuck on conducting a party conference a week before the election, which would have been awkward. The big showdown between SDA and SIJ on the PP conference will also be postponed, and SDA hasn't got much time to present his own list (and likely wont before he has tried to regain the PP leadership).

The election lists will need to be handed in at 13 October, by which time we know which micro parties will stand, but it will likely be the same as last time. The Pirates will hold a membership vote to determine how their lists will look and given the result from last time the leftists might lose out to the "movement Pirates".

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The Althing can decide to continue working until the election and the Speaker will discuss that with the party leaders today.

The Pirates want three issues dealt with before the election: residence permit for an asylum seeking family from Afghanistan, a ban on convicted sex offenders to work as lawyers and a motion that allows the newly elected parliament to approve a new constitution without the following parliament having to confirm the constitutional changes, such a permit was in force in the 2009-13 parliament, but its unrealistic to get in approved in the current parliament (IP/PP will be against and only need a few from the other parties to join them).

Viðreisn still want an investigation of the conduct of Bjarni Benediktsson and Sigríður Á. Andersen to start immediately and a review of the role of Brynjar Níelsson, the chairman of the constitutional and supervisory committee, and that Brynjar Níelsson must step aside in the meantime. The Left Greens have supported them in this. An investigation running parallel with the election campaign would obviously be quite problematic for IP.

IP's youth organization in Reykjavík Heimdallur (quite influential, it was founded before the party and all party leaders have been former members) writes in a statement that Sigríður Á. Andersen's actions have caused confusion and distress and they are deeply disappointed with how she has handled the matter. They also call for a review of the law of reinstatement. Páll Magnússon is the only IP MP to support them so far, but I think she is toast.

Sigríður Á. Andersen says she hasn't broken any confidentiality clause and her defenders say she is the first Minister of Justice who didn't automatically approve requests for reinstatement and begun a review of the law (which isn't without merit, it seems anyone with letters of recommendation from sufficiently "distinguished" citizens used to get them).

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IP hasn't had a deputy chairman since the death of Ólöf Nordal in February, so they can't make a swift leadership change if Bjarni Ben is further tainted. Minister of Foreign Affairs Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson is the most likely successor, but he isn't exactly charismatic. Bjarni Ben has been involved in a couple of affairs throughout the years, but they have all been "business related", and Icelandic centre-right voters are pretty forgiving about that. This is different. He also ignored messages from another victim of sexual abuse Nína Rún Bergsdóttir in connection with the reinstatement of her molester (who goes by the name Robert Downey, but is born Róbert Árni Hreiðarsson). The PM ignoring a sex abuse victim probably wouldn't be a big deal in bigger countries (too busy etc.), but in Iceland people expect their politicians to be responsive about serious matters. She was the one that originally got the press to look into the reinstatement issue with her #Höfumhátt (literally: "let's be loud") campaign.

Statement by the Women's Rights Association: kvenrettindafelag.is/2017/speakup-no-more-tolerance-for-gender-based-violence

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The party that could gain the most from this is Viðreisn, and its clear they smell blood now where IP is in trouble with no easy way out, so I expect them to keep up the pressure and not let Bjarni Ben off the hook. But the EU and protectionism issues mean that many centre-right voters will never vote for them, and PP should gain on this as well. There had already been a significant shift to the left prior to the scandal and I doubt the left/right balance will change much from the pre-scandal baseline. The joker is Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson returning to politics (and Birgitta Jónsdottír leaving), but I think that ship has sailed. Most voters perceive the Pirates as leftists by now and the Smári McCarthy/Birgitta J. axis will still influence how the campaign is run.

[Khunanup]

Thanks for your updates @odo For such a small country Iceland has endlessly fascinating politics!

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The president has dissolved the Althing and approved the 28th of October as election day. It was the 29th last year, so less than a year.

[neilm]

Sept 18, 2017 14:12:31 GMT Khunanup said:

Thanks for your updates @odo For such a small country Iceland has endlessly fascinating politics!

When I was contemplating the candidates list I considered whether I'd prefer to be leader of a large authority instead (like you do). I came to the conclusion that you'd see more it the rough and tumble of politics locally and you'd be able to get far more involved. Because Iceland has such a low population, I wonder if the same principle applies? I've noticed the same phenomenon at play in Gibraltar and my Sammarinese friend has commented in it there as well.

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First poll conducted after the government collapsed (respondents asked 15-18/9) from Zenter (new pollster, so take it with a grain of salt) doesn't show big changes and has Viðreisn below the threshold (rather surprising).

IP 26.4%
PP 10.5

BF 5.6%
Viðreisn 2.7%

LG 22.8%
Pirates 12.5%
SDA 9.0%

People's Party 9.8%
Dawn 0.0%
Others 0.8%

68.5% supported holding a snap election, 14.0% disagreed, 10.6% were neutral and 6.8% didn't want to answer the question.

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Inga Sæland has walked back her remarks about refugees being a threat to welfare (using the good old "I never said that, its all slander by my opponents" line) and that the People's Party have nothing against refugees, but only want to adapt the Norwegian rules asylum seekers from safe countries having their applications processed within 48 hours so they can be send back (lots of Albanians try their luck in Iceland, and increasingly also from other parts of the Balkans and the Caucasus ). Speaking like a true populist she also came out in favour of the Althing granting special asylum to the families of two girls (from Nigeria and Afghanistan respectively) who have lived in Iceland for several years, but stand to get deported. Both cases with lots of media exposure.

So it seems that she is gearing up to being able to work with the left (and maybe even entering a government), which will also be her only chance of getting the massive welfare investments she has promised. The problem is that the People's Party still claim it can all be financed by taxing the tourist industry, which is yet another version of the old "let the foreigners pay" line so popular with Icelandic populists (a la when SDG wanted to extort foreign creditors to pay for the housing debts). LG want higher taxes on the wealthy, the Pirates and SDA want to auction off fishing quotas (though SDA can accept certain tax rises).

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Jón Stein­dór Valdi­mars­son from Viðreisn­ takes over as chair of the Constitutional & Supervisionary Committee after Brynj­ar Ní­els­son from IP, whose reputation has been severely damaged by the scandal.

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Frétta­blaðið poll conducted yesterday (also not a quality pollster, still waiting for Gallup and MMR). The poll is conducted after the electronic media went deeper into the whole mess and has IP lower. LG and PP on the same level. Viðreisn on a more logical level right above the threshold and BF back up to the their election result. SDA in disaster area right above the threshold (but that is most likely a coincidence, they have been higher in all polls since shorty after the election and no reason for them to tank now).

IP 23.0 15 (-6)
PP 10.4 7 (-1)

BF 7.1 4 (nc)
Viðreisn 5.2 3 (-4)

LG 22.8 15 (5+)
SDA 5.1 3 (nc)
Pirates 13.7 9 (-1)

People's Party 10.9 7 (+7)
Others 1.8

Pre-2016 opposition: LG/SDA/BF/Pirates at 29
Pre-2016 government: IP/PP at 22

LG/Pirates/People's Party/SDA 34 (this leftist/populist four party coalition would likely be quite unstable, but it might be the only option)

[tamar]

Sept 19, 2017 11:49:46 GMT @odo said:

SDA in disaster area right above the threshold (but that is most likely a coincidence, they have been higher in all polls since shorty after the election and no reason for them to tank now).

Could it not just be BF switchers returning home?