jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 9, 2017 17:16:16 GMT
That is the best bit hopefully with 650 seats and a 10% variance, they may come up with something less insane. Though if they are still on the mind-altering substances that they were when these proposals for the north east were introduced, I wouldn't hold my breath. I await to see whether they split Barnard Castle again, or carve Middlesborough up into pieces. Or keep with their 'Berwick and Ashington' idea. Tbh for the North East it was the mind-altering substances which were the problem. Under the 600 seats and 5% variance plan I was able to create a map which had no major problems, I was not thrilled with 'Newton Aycliffe and Billingham' and a couple of others but they were acceptable imo. The commission seemed intent on coming up with awful constituencies. However, 650 seats may actually be quite bad. Haven't checked everywhere, yet, but 650 + disproportionate (and unexpected) electorate growth in Northumberland means it is way over 3 quotas. Will mean either 'Longbenton and Cramlington', Newcastle West and Ponteland' or some form of 'Blaydon and Hexham' monstrosity (which they suggested in 2013). Just checked and pretty sure Tyneside will not be pretty. Berwick and Ashington will probably remain by virtue of the alternatives being even worse (I speak as someone who thought it was abysmal originally). Definitely need the 10% variance to make it workable. On the positive side, I'd rather be in 'Blaydon and Hexham' than 'Winlaton West and Barnard Castle West' represented by Laura Pidcock 😁😁
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2017 17:31:08 GMT
With the electoral calculus ward figures (which appear to be basically correct) West Yorks (outside Leeds) seems fairly okay even with a 5% variance: Hemsworth - swaps Normanton for Wakefield South Pontefract & Castleford - loses Normanton Wakefield - swaps Osset x2 & Wakefield Rural for Outwood x2 & Wakefield South Colne Valley - loses CM&N Huddersfield - swaps CM&N for Almondbury Batley & Dewsbury - Batley x2, Dewsbury x3 Osset (?) - Osset x2, Wakefield Rural, Kirkburton, Denny Dale, Almondbury Spenborough - other 5 Kirklees wards & Hipperholme Calder Valley - loses Hipperholme Halifax - unchanged Keighley - unchanged Shipley - swaps Windhill & Wrose for Thornton & Allerton Bradford West - swaps Thornton & Allerton for Great Horton Bradford South - swaps Great Horton for Little Horton Bradford East - swaps Little Horton for Windhill & Wrose Bradford would only need the ward notionals / EAL's quota calculation to be out by a little bit to have no change. Nice gerrymander. Colne valley would easily be a Tory seat without CM, Batley & Dewsbury is a nice packed gerrymander and Ossett and Spenborough would both be a pretty good bet for the Tories. Possibly tips Wakefield too. In fact I've worked out notional ward results for West Yorkshire so might check these out. We need to do something for Keighley though
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 9, 2017 17:34:22 GMT
A gerrymander wasn't what I was aiming for, but it did occur to me after I'd done Kirklees ...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2017 17:44:08 GMT
just noticed Calder Valley though which probably moves the other way (not that they'd have any difficulty winning it if they weren't so uselessly led, likewise Keighley of course)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2017 18:53:21 GMT
With the electoral calculus ward figures (which appear to be basically correct) West Yorks (outside Leeds) seems fairly okay even with a 5% variance: Hemsworth - swaps Normanton for Wakefield South Pontefract & Castleford - loses Normanton Wakefield - swaps Osset x2 & Wakefield Rural for Outwood x2 & Wakefield South actually slightly safer for Labour, maj c. 3,000 7% Colne Valley - loses CM&N Con maj c. 1,800 3.5% Huddersfield - swaps CM&N for Almondbury Batley & Dewsbury - Batley x2, Dewsbury x3 Lab maj c. 15,000 34% Osset (?) - Osset x2, Wakefield Rural, Kirkburton, Denny Dale, Almondbury Con maj c. 4,000 7% Spenborough - other 5 Kirklees wards & Hipperholme Con maj c 2,300 4% Calder Valley - loses Hipperholme Lab maj c. 1,400 3% Halifax - unchanged Ps.. Morley & Rothwell, Con maj 2,700
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Post by therealriga on Sept 9, 2017 20:01:41 GMT
Well, you've been teasing us for a while saying you'll post latest local authority figures but haven't. Without those we are stuck with Boundary assistant and December 2016 ONS electorate figures and unfortunately that means we won't be able to produce anything more timely. This is a fair complaint. As I've got a weekend to catch up on things, I've finally got round to uploading the spreadsheet as a Google doc. Let me know if it doesn't work properly. That's excellent work, thanks. Working off those figures, same rules as the soon-to-be aborted review for 650 gives the following for each region NORTHERN IRELAND -1 SCOTLAND -2 WALES -8 NE -2 Split into two review areas one north and south of the Tyne, each loses a seat. NW -2 Cumbria and Lancs lose. Greater Manchester's eastern and southern boroughs need some tinkering but keep the 27 seats. YORKS = But Sheffield, Barnsley, Kirklees, Wakefield and Leeds need to form one review area with tinkering to keep the current allocation. Same with the other two. York and North Yorks are too big, Humberside too small. Those get treated as one review area. WM (-2) Black country loses 1. Staffs and Walsall are paired in an ugly arrangement for the loss of one. EM +1 Revive Rutland&Stamford. Leicester keeps 3. The remainder of Leics and Lincs get 7 each. EAST +3 Cambs gains 1 as discussed. Suffolk gains 1 but with 0.3 of a quota coming from Norfolk. Extra one for Herts, again with 0.3 from Beds. LONDON +3 SE +7 Kent, Sussex, Surrey, Berks, Oxon, Bucks, IOW all gain 1. Hants has 0.45 extra if the numbers don't work out elsewhere. SW +3 Somerset gains 1. Devon gains one, with the assistance of a few Dorset wards. Glos, S Glos and Bristol combined gain 1.
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Post by jigger on Sept 9, 2017 20:08:32 GMT
With the electoral calculus ward figures (which appear to be basically correct) West Yorks (outside Leeds) seems fairly okay even with a 5% variance: Hemsworth - swaps Normanton for Wakefield South Pontefract & Castleford - loses Normanton Wakefield - swaps Osset x2 & Wakefield Rural for Outwood x2 & Wakefield South actually slightly safer for Labour, maj c. 3,000 7% Colne Valley - loses CM&N Con maj c. 1,800 3.5% Huddersfield - swaps CM&N for Almondbury Batley & Dewsbury - Batley x2, Dewsbury x3 Lab maj c. 15,000 34% Osset (?) - Osset x2, Wakefield Rural, Kirkburton, Denny Dale, Almondbury Con maj c. 4,000 7% Spenborough - other 5 Kirklees wards & Hipperholme Con maj c 2,300 4% Calder Valley - loses Hipperholme Lab maj c. 1,400 3% Halifax - unchanged Ps.. Morley & Rothwell, Con maj 2,700 Does this Morley and Rothwell have the same boundaries as the 1997-2010 version?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2017 20:15:03 GMT
Ps.. Morley & Rothwell, Con maj 2,700 Does this Morley and Rothwell have the same boundaries as the 1997-2010 version? Well there's been ward boundary changes since then but basically it excludes the Middleton Park are which was in the old seat and that will make quite a difference
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Post by jigger on Sept 9, 2017 20:26:55 GMT
Does this Morley and Rothwell have the same boundaries as the 1997-2010 version? Well there's been ward boundary changes since then but basically it excludes the Middleton Park are which was in the old seat and that will make quite a difference I presume that the 1997-2010 Morley and Rothwell would still have voted Labour in 2017? May have been very close though.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2017 20:31:09 GMT
Well there's been ward boundary changes since then but basically it excludes the Middleton Park are which was in the old seat and that will make quite a difference I presume that the 1997-2010 Morley and Rothwell would still have voted Labour in 2017? May have been very close though. Close I should think. Middleton probably would tip it to Labour but it didn;t include all of the current Middleton Park ward as Belle Vue was in Leeds Central
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 9, 2017 20:34:48 GMT
East Anglian Lefty your images aren't appearing for the rest of us, because they're hosted on photobucket (which has recently decided that it's not going to allow third party hosting unless you pay an extortionate amount, even though that's what the site has always been for).
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 10, 2017 0:05:51 GMT
Okay: Electoral Calculus electorates
In the workings, the old seats have the 2017 electorates. The rejigged seats have the old electorates from back in 2015.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 10, 2017 2:43:15 GMT
A quick shimmy through the numbers suggets that the existing 5-anna-half seats in Sheffield, nudged to the new ward boundaries, are all within 3% of quota for 650 seats, except South-East at -8%.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 10, 2017 6:16:05 GMT
I've had a quick look at those numbers, extrapolated some estimates, and thought about the implications for a 32-constituency Wales: GwentMonmouthshire (est: 72,046 [1.00]) and Torfaen (est: 69,645 [0.96]) can each stand alone. Blaenau Gwent needs some Caerphilly wards (those currently in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, plus Argoed and the three wards of Bargoed community) for 73,978 [1.02]. Newport East loses its Monmouthshire wards and ends up taking Bettws, Caerleon, Malpas, Pillgwenlly, Shaftesbury, and Stow Hill wards from Newport West for 72,938 [1.01]. The remainder of Newport then combines with the Aber Valley; Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen; Llanbradach; Morgan Jones; Penyrheol; and St. Martins wards of Caerphilly to form Newport West and Caerphilly (est: 69,932 [0.97]) The remainder of Caerphilly then neatly becomes an enlarged Islwyn (est: 73,439 [1.02]) DyfedCeredigion needs to go out all the way to St David's, but can stay north of the Preseli Mountains. Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire (est: 72,634 [1.01]). Pembroke (est: 73,362 [1.02]). The remainder of Pembrokeshire. Llanelli (est: 69,090 [0.96]). Adds Gorslas, Penygroes, and Saron wards from Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. Carmarthen (est: 71,073 [0.98]). The remainder of Carmarthenshire. West GlamorganNeath (est: 69,132 [0.96]). Adds Briton Ferry East, Briton Ferry West, Bryn and Cwmavon, Cymmer, Glyncorrwg, and Gwynfi wards from Aberavon. Gower (est: 73,995 [1.02]). Realigned to new ward boundaries, then adds Dunvant, Killay North, Killay South, and Mayals wards from Swansea West. This unites Mumbles community in one constituency (which Labour would hate, as Mayals is one of the bluest wards in Swansea). Swansea West (est: 70,261 [0.97]). Realigned etc etc. Losses to Gower as above, then adds Cwmbwrla, Landore, Mynyddbach, and Penderry wards from Swansea East. Swansea East and Aberafan (est: 69,913 [0.97]). Realigned etc etc. Consists of the Aberavon, Baglan, Coedffranc Central, Coedffranc North, Coedffranc West, Margam, Port Talbot, Sandfields East, Sandfields West, and Tai-bach wards of Neath Port Talbot and the Bonymaen, Llansamlet, Morriston, and St.Thomas wards of Swansea. Technically discontiguous by road, but it really oughtn't to matter, as it works really very nicely indeed. Rest of GlamorganThis is going to be a pain. The principal areas are all awkward sizes: - Bridgend: 106,613 (est.) [1.48]
- Cardiff: 247,107 (est.) [3.42]
- Merthyr Tydfil: 43,775 (est.) [0.61]
- Rhondda Cynon Taf: 174,954 (est.) [2.42]
- Vale of Glamorgan: 96,714 (est.) [1.34]
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf add up to 3.03 (not that that's going to be very pretty), but the rest then becomes a very difficult 6.24. Pontypridd and Barry towns are in the most awkward places possible as well.
Rest of Wales
If that weren't bad enough, the rest of Wales only has 624,368 electors (actual, not an estimate). This is an entitlement of 8.65. Not quite at the point where a Brecon-Beacons-crossing constituency is technically forced, but very, very difficult nonetheless.
Would you like notional calculations (both Assembly and Westminster) for those constituencies that you have produced?
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 10, 2017 11:01:52 GMT
A fairly hideous plan for SW London with 5% tolerance. Unfortunately, Wandsworth's wards are just the wrong size.
Twickenham - loses Twickenham Riverside Kingston & Surbiton - loses Norbiton Richmond Park - swaps the above for East Sheen, Barnes, Mortlake & Barnes Common Putney - swaps the 3 Richmond wards for Southfields Battersea - swaps Balham for Wandsworth Common Tooting - swaps Earlsfield and Wandsworth Common for Balham and Colliers Wood Wimbledon - swaps Southfields and Earlsfield for Abbey and Merton Park Mitcham & Morden - swaps Abbey and Merton Park for Colliers Wood Sutton & Cheam - unchanged Carshalton & Wallington - unchanged
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 10, 2017 11:09:32 GMT
iain I may be misunderstanding you but are you sure EC are right? For example, the Newcastle East electorate figure is given as 74113. However, the Newcastle council website quotes the figure as 61989. Furthermore, the ward figures look right (student areas disproportionately up) but they only add up 62333. Edit - Ward numbers actually look very dodgy. Claims multiple wards have lost over 1000 electors, despite having permanent/low churn populations.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 10, 2017 11:18:47 GMT
I've had a quick look at those numbers, extrapolated some estimates, and thought about the implications for a 32-constituency Wales: GwentMonmouthshire (est: 72,046 [1.00]) and Torfaen (est: 69,645 [0.96]) can each stand alone. Blaenau Gwent needs some Caerphilly wards (those currently in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, plus Argoed and the three wards of Bargoed community) for 73,978 [1.02]. Newport East loses its Monmouthshire wards and ends up taking Bettws, Caerleon, Malpas, Pillgwenlly, Shaftesbury, and Stow Hill wards from Newport West for 72,938 [1.01]. The remainder of Newport then combines with the Aber Valley; Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen; Llanbradach; Morgan Jones; Penyrheol; and St. Martins wards of Caerphilly to form Newport West and Caerphilly (est: 69,932 [0.97]) The remainder of Caerphilly then neatly becomes an enlarged Islwyn (est: 73,439 [1.02]) Wait, what happens to the bits of Monmouthshire you've taken out of Newport East? I think that might be why you're having problems with the rest of Wales (particularly since North Wales and Montgomeryshire works fairly neatly for 8 seats.) East Anglian Lefty your images aren't appearing for the rest of us, because they're hosted on photobucket (which has recently decided that it's not going to allow third party hosting unless you pay an extortionate amount, even though that's what the site has always been for). So I see. Any suggestions for an alternative host?
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 10, 2017 11:47:27 GMT
iain I may be misunderstanding you but are you sure EC are right? For example, the Newcastle East electorate figure is given as 74113. However, the Newcastle council website quotes the figure as 61989. Furthermore, the ward figures look right (student areas disproportionately up) but they only add up 62333. Edit - Ward numbers actually look very dodgy. Claims multiple wards have lost over 1000 electors, despite having permanent/low churn populations. I don't know about whether the ward figures look right, but the Newcastle East electorate is stated as 62,333 not 74,113
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 10, 2017 11:52:38 GMT
Is this confusion between Parliamentary and local government electorate?
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 10, 2017 11:58:38 GMT
East Anglian Lefty your images aren't appearing for the rest of us, because they're hosted on photobucket (which has recently decided that it's not going to allow third party hosting unless you pay an extortionate amount, even though that's what the site has always been for). So I see. Any suggestions for an alternative host? Some of us use Imgur, see if that works out for you.
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