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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 7, 2017 23:13:27 GMT
I feel Hempie has nailed this week's mega-contest!
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Post by Lifeless on Sept 7, 2017 23:17:52 GMT
Hmm. I think i need to brush up on my research a bit. The one redeeming thing I got was the Colchester gain, but even then the percentage points weren't particularly right either...
EDIT: Oh actually I didn't do too bad for Glasgow
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Dalek
Conservative
Aldershot and Glasgow Kelvingrove
Posts: 110
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Post by Dalek on Sept 7, 2017 23:57:57 GMT
The result of the Cardonald By Election appears to be very similar to the General Election. Electoral Calculus estimates the vote in that ward as Lab 45.2% to SNP 38.1% and the by election result was Lab 48.6% to SNP 36.7%
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Dalek
Conservative
Aldershot and Glasgow Kelvingrove
Posts: 110
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Post by Dalek on Sept 7, 2017 23:59:35 GMT
That swing would be large enough to overturn the SNP majority of 60 in Glasgow South West.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 8, 2017 7:38:20 GMT
I hope Mark Senior is OK. He has been a participant in this competition for as long as I can remember. Yes indeed. I am hoping it was that he had all the experience and wisdom to know that this was a good month to sit out
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 8, 2017 10:08:00 GMT
For week 1Authority | Ward / Division | David Boothroyd | green robinhood | hempie | Lancastrian | Lifeless | Robert Waller | Yellow Peril | Barbergh | Sudbury South | 4.6
| 4.6
| 3.1
| 17.1
| 23.4+10
| 3.1
| 6.6
| Cannock Chase | Hednesford Green Heath | 36.9+10
| 15.2
| 15.3
| 5.3
| 29.2+10
| 9.0
| 11.3
| Cannock Chase | Hednesford South | 55.2+10
| 17.6
| 24.6
| 48.6+10
| 38.2
| 43.6+10
| 17.6
| Colchester | Shrub End | 17.4+10
| 38.0+10
| 36.0+10
| 21.1+10
| 23.9
| 41.9+10
| 42.0+10
| Croydon | South Norwood | 17.4
| 24.9
| 12.9
| 19.9
| 27.0
| 13.4
| 27.0
| East Cambridgeshire | Ely South | 41.8+10
| 37.8+10
| 9.8
| 8.1
| 37.7+10
| 11.8
| 35.7+10
| Glasgow | Cardonald | 9.8
| 28.6
| 30.6
| 17.1
| 7.9
| 13.2
| 28.0
| Herefordshire | Golden Valley South | 23.8
| 24.7
| 24.7
| 38.4
| 19.4
| 33.9+10
| 69.0+10
| Lancaster | Skerton West | 12.1
| 10.1
| 12.1
| 12.1
| 24.1
| 18.1
| 4.1
| Lewes | Ouse Valley & Ringmer | 65.4+10
| 14.6
| 21.4+10
| 58.6+10
| 53.4+10
| 45.4+10
| 65.4+10
| North Lanarkshire | Fortissat | 45.5+10
| 44.5
| 43.5
| 46.5
| 40.5
| 32.5
| 45.5
| Peterborough | Eye, Thornley & Newborough | 20.1
| 23.2
| 19.4
| 23.2
| 38.1
| 30.1
| 29.6
| Staffordshire | Hednesford & Rawnsley | 23.5
| 42.8+10
| 28.8+10
| 8.8+10
| 27.4+10
| 24.8+10
| 41.4+10
| Suffolk | St Johns
| 20.0
| 18.0
| 12.0
| 6.0
| 14.0
| 14.0
| 49.8+10
| Total faults |
| 453.5
| 374.6
| 324.3
| 370.8
| 454.4
| 385.0
| 533.2
| Position |
| 5th
| 3rd
| 1st
| 2nd
| 6th
| 4th
| 7th
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 3 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday. We are away for several days but will pick up the official results on our return.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,543
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 8, 2017 10:55:31 GMT
I hope Mark Senior is OK. He has been a participant in this competition for as long as I can remember. Yes indeed. I am hoping it was that he had all the experience and wisdom to know that this was a good month to sit out He logged in last night, but didn't post in the results thread as he normally does. Like others, I hope everything is OK.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 8, 2017 11:12:44 GMT
Congrats to hempie. I think 324 faults over 14 varied contests with such a mixture of candidature patterns is darned good.
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Post by Lifeless on Sept 8, 2017 12:58:07 GMT
Congrats hempie! Turns out I didn't do as bad as I initially expected, and managed to somehow pull off 3 best results (Colchester, Herefordshire and Glasgow. Even if the Glasglow one isn't highlighted!). Things can still change around quite a lot due to the quite busy month, so I'm looking forward to the end result.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 8, 2017 13:41:29 GMT
Even I still didn't do as badly as I feared, but still quite bad enough to take up the lanterne rouge as they say in the Tour de France. When you post completely the wrong set of numbers for one election,taken from somewhere else, what can you expect? That's an error to make those people who post on the wrong day or fail to add up to 100 look quite good. What is even more alarming, that wasn't even my worst result! Yes, well done,hempie who must be quite chuffed- winning the week and in a week with two Green gains! And as lifeless says, plenty more to come this month so plenty to play for- another 18 elections before the month is through!
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Post by johnloony on Sept 9, 2017 8:49:52 GMT
I hardly ever look at this thread - and I didn't even remember to look at it to see what people were predicting for Croydon - but if I had made a prediction I would have predicted:
My prediction Lab 63 Con 23 LD 4 Grn 8 UKIP 2 Result Lab 59.0 Con 16.8 LD 13.7 Grn 7.7 UKIP 2.8 Average in this thread: Lab 60.3 Con 23.6 LD 8.0 Grn 7.0 UKIP 2.6 Average error: 1.3 6.8 5.7 0.3 0.2 My error: 4.0 7.2 9.7 0.3 0.8
So the wisdom of the crowd seems to have worked fairly well in this case (notwithstanding the unexpectedly big vote for the LD). I don't know if the average error has been calculated on a long-term basis? I have sometimes thought that a lazy person could come to this thread at the last moment before the deadline and simply average everybody else's predictions to make their own. How often would it work as a strategy to "win" the prediction competitions?
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 10, 2017 8:31:04 GMT
If you followed this regularly you might suspect some people have done just that. Not present company of course. Oh no. Actually, I doubt its a winning strategy , more one to avoid coming last (where I currently reside, both for the week and specifically for South Norwood) but if you used it for the ones you didn't know much about and then used your local knowledge where available, that might work. Except local knowledge is not infallible as you found out yourself
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Post by lancastrian on Sept 13, 2017 22:15:48 GMT
Mid Devon: Ind 38 Con 27 Lab 20 LD 15 Trafford: Lab 61 Con 25 UKIP 5 Green 5 LD 4 West Dorset: Con 38 Ind 34 Lab 28
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Post by greenhert on Sept 13, 2017 23:06:52 GMT
Mid Devon DC, Westexe: Independent (Luxton) 35, Conservative 32, Labour 21, Liberal Democrats 12. Trafford MBC, Bucklow St Martin's: Labour 64, Conservative 24, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 4, UKIP 3. West Dorset DC, Lyme Regis & Charmouth: Conservative 40, Labour 30, Independent (Reynolds) 30.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 13, 2017 23:17:20 GMT
Mid Devon DC, Westexe: Independent (Luxton) 35, Conservative 34, Labour 20, Liberal Democrats 11. Trafford MBC, Bucklow St Martin's: Labour 58, Conservative 28, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 3, UKIP 8. West Dorset DC, Lyme Regis & Charmouth: Conservative 51, Labour 14, No Description (Reynolds) 35.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 13, 2017 23:23:16 GMT
Mid Devon, Westexe: Ind 40, Con 28,Lab 20. LD 12 Trafford,Bucklow St Martins:Lab 61, Con 29, Green 6, UKIP 3, LD 1 West Dorset, Lyme Regis & Charmouth: Con 50,Lab 41, ND 9
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 13, 2017 23:34:14 GMT
MID DEVON Westexe: Ind 50, C 27, Lab 14, L Dem 9 TRAFFORD Bucklow St Martins: Lab 57, C 29, UKIP 8, L Dem 3, GP 3 WEST DORSET Lyme Regis and Charmouth: C 64, Lab 25, Ind 11
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Sept 14, 2017 7:24:36 GMT
Mid Devon, Westexe: Ind 39, Con 34, Lab 15, LD 12 Trafford, Bucklow St Martins: Lab 61, Con 25, LD 6, UKIP 5, Green 3 West Dorset, Lyme Regis and Charmouth: Con 65, Lab 22, Ind 13
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2017 11:45:19 GMT
No lifeless? and then there was six! bit of the Agatha Christies?
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Post by Lifeless on Sept 14, 2017 12:10:11 GMT
Why is it that I always remember that I need to do this a couple hours after the deadline! Oh well, its a small week being late won't hurt me too much.
Mid Devon, Westexe: Ind 37%, Con 29%,Lab 20%, LD 14% Trafford, Bucklow St Martins: Lab 59%, Con 27%, Green 7%, LD 4%, UKIP 3% West Dorset, Lyme Regis & Charmouth: Con 54%, Lab 39%, ND 7%
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