The result of the Cardonald By Election appears to be very similar to the General Election. Electoral Calculus estimates the vote in that ward as Lab 45.2% to SNP 38.1% and the by election result was Lab 48.6% to SNP 36.7%
Congrats hempie! Turns out I didn't do as bad as I initially expected, and managed to somehow pull off 3 best results (Colchester, Herefordshire and Glasgow. Even if the Glasglow one isn't highlighted!). Things can still change around quite a lot due to the quite busy month, so I'm looking forward to the end result.
Even I still didn't do as badly as I feared, but still quite bad enough to take up the lanterne rouge as they say in the Tour de France. When you post completely the wrong set of numbers for one election,taken from somewhere else, what can you expect? That's an error to make those people who post on the wrong day or fail to add up to 100 look quite good. What is even more alarming, that wasn't even my worst result! Yes, well done,hempie who must be quite chuffed- winning the week and in a week with two Green gains! And as lifeless says, plenty more to come this month so plenty to play for- another 18 elections before the month is through!
I hardly ever look at this thread - and I didn't even remember to look at it to see what people were predicting for Croydon - but if I had made a prediction I would have predicted:
My prediction Lab 63 Con 23 LD 4 Grn 8 UKIP 2 Result Lab 59.0 Con 16.8 LD 13.7 Grn 7.7 UKIP 2.8 Average in this thread: Lab 60.3 Con 23.6 LD 8.0 Grn 7.0 UKIP 2.6 Average error: 1.3 6.8 5.7 0.3 0.2 My error: 4.0 7.2 9.7 0.3 0.8
So the wisdom of the crowd seems to have worked fairly well in this case (notwithstanding the unexpectedly big vote for the LD). I don't know if the average error has been calculated on a long-term basis? I have sometimes thought that a lazy person could come to this thread at the last moment before the deadline and simply average everybody else's predictions to make their own. How often would it work as a strategy to "win" the prediction competitions?
Labour governments are always voted in by empty minds, and voted out by empty pockets
If you followed this regularly you might suspect some people have done just that. Not present company of course. Oh no.
Actually, I doubt its a winning strategy , more one to avoid coming last (where I currently reside, both for the week and specifically for South Norwood) but if you used it for the ones you didn't know much about and then used your local knowledge where available, that might work. Except local knowledge is not infallible as you found out yourself
Post by greenrobinhood on Sept 13, 2017 23:06:52 GMT
Mid Devon DC, Westexe: Independent (Luxton) 35, Conservative 32, Labour 21, Liberal Democrats 12. Trafford MBC, Bucklow St Martin's: Labour 64, Conservative 24, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 4, UKIP 3. West Dorset DC, Lyme Regis & Charmouth: Conservative 40, Labour 30, Independent (Reynolds) 30.
Post by robertwaller on Sept 13, 2017 23:17:20 GMT
Mid Devon DC, Westexe: Independent (Luxton) 35, Conservative 34, Labour 20, Liberal Democrats 11. Trafford MBC, Bucklow St Martin's: Labour 58, Conservative 28, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 3, UKIP 8. West Dorset DC, Lyme Regis & Charmouth: Conservative 51, Labour 14, No Description (Reynolds) 35.