I understand the Tories are defending 14 seats with Labour and Lib Dems defending one apiece. The Lib Dem defence is St James’ and the Labour defence is Southborough and High Brooms.
Tunbridge Wells was the only borough in Kent to back remain. I would therefore expect the Tory vote to fall.
Labour did very well in the general election to increase their vote share by 12%, but interestingly the Tory vote held up.
As Labour are such a long way behind in the Tory-held wards, I cannot see them making any gains. However, it will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems are able to make gains or whether people switching from Lib Dems to Labour in Lib Dem/Tory marginals like St John’s and St James’ will save the Tories and in fact enable net gains for the Tories.
I think we should be careful of placing too much emphasis on the referendum .. these are local elections with low turnout and local issues to fight on.. Tumbrjdge Wells was indeed the only part of Kent to back remain but that Doesn't mean automatic loss of voteshare for the conservatives.
As you say could be no change at all or even a small chance of a Tory pick up.
Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 19, 2018 9:39:12 GMT
St James voted Lib Dem over Conservative by 3 to 1 in 2014 and by 6 to 1 in 2016 so I would call the chances of a Tory gain there slim. Southborough is a more likely gain but the 2016 result there isn;t too encouraging. St John looks like the only other ward in play - likely Lib Dem gain
5 May 2016 Con 43, Lib Dem 3, Lab 2 Now Con 43, Lib Dem 3, Lab 2
Elected on 22 May 2014: Con 14, Lib Dem 1, Lab 1 • On 10 September 2015, Joe Simmons (Con) held the Southborough North by-election, caused by the death of Mike Rusbridge (Con) at Hospice in the Weald. Elected on 7 May 2015: Con 16(17) Elected on 5 May 2016: Con 13, Lib Dem 2, Lab 1
Elected on 22 May 2014: Con 14, Lib Dem 1, Lab 1 Defended on 3 May 2018: Con 14, Lib Dem 1, Lab 1
Retiring Councillors (16): Con 14, Lib Dem 1, Lab 1
Seeking Re-Election (11): Con 10, Lib Dem 1 Tom Dawlings (Con) (Benenden and Cranbrook) Alan McDermott (Con) (Brenchley and Horsmonden) Chris Woodward (Con) (Broadwater) *Elizabeth Thomas (Con) (Paddock Wood West) James Scholes (Con) (Pantiles and St. Mark’s) Paul Barrington-King (Con) (Pembury) David Neve (Lib Dem) (St. James’) Nasir Jamil (Con) (St. John’s) Bob Backhouse (Con) (Sherwood) Joe Simmons (Con) (Southborough North) – elected in by-election (10.09.2015) *Julia Soyke (Con) (Speldhurst and Bidborough)
Standing Down (5): Con 4, Lab 1 Don Sloan (Con) (Culverden) Nathan Gray (Con) (Hawkhurst and Sandhurst) Bill Hills (Con) (Paddock Wood East) *Catherine Mayhew (Con) (Park) Graham Munn (Lab) (Southborough and High Brooms)
Con 12 (-2), LD 2 (+1), Lab 1, Tunbridge Wells Alliance 1 (+1) New council: Con 41 (-2), LD 4 (+1), Lab 2, Tunbridge Wells Alliance 1 (+1)
Tunbridge Wells Alliance gain in Park (by 143 votes). LD gain over Con in St John (by 439 votes over Labour, Con 3rd!)
LD were 8 votes away from gaining Broadwater. Tunbridge Wells Alliance was 164 votes away in Culverden, 165 votes away in Paddock Wood East Lab was 113 votes away in Sherwood, 190 votes away in Paddock Wood West.
Also, for people talking of a Tory gain in St James through a split of the anti-Tory vote, clearly not, they finished last with 15%.