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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 19, 2017 8:11:35 GMT
My figures for the London list adjusted for postal votes
Lab 2329 57.6%
Con 738 18.2%
UKIP 371 9.2%
Grn 135 3.3%
LD 99 2.4%
Oth 372 9.2%
(total votes 4044)
Compared with the byelection
Lab 2155 63.8%
Con 973 28.8%
UKIP 91 2.7%
Grn 104 3.1%
LD 54 1.6%
(total votes 3377)
On the List vote, Labour's lead in Enfield North was 11% so this swing would not be enough for the Conservatives to gain the seat (for what that is worth)
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Post by yellowperil on May 19, 2017 8:45:48 GMT
I am struggling to find some comfort in this and other recent results from a Lib Dem perspective.Not so long ago there seemed to be a generic Lib Dem vote of about 5-10% i.e. that was the Lib Dem vote for paper candidates where no effort was put in. Now that seems to be less than 2% That may mean that the national headline poll figure hides a greater concentration of Lib Dem votes where it really matters, in target seats. Am I clutching at straws?
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Post by finsobruce on May 19, 2017 9:11:16 GMT
Enfield Lock Labour - 63.8% (+12.7%) Conservative - 28.8% (+13.3%) Green - 3.1% (-6.4%) UKIP - 2.7% (-15.0%) Lib Dem - 1.6% (+1.6%) At the risk of being silly enough to read anything at all into one local election result, this would tend to suggest a squeeze on the minors with a redistribution to the two major protagonists? With Greens down two-thirds and UKIP down by more than three-quarters............the transfers are pretty even to both Labour and Conservative. The big 'BUT' is the fact that those transfers are 'Even' and not proportional to the underlying strengths of those majors! In fact the Conservatives got perhaps three times 'their share' of the redistribution? Or looked at another way, if it is assumed that most of the Green transfer went Labour, then most of UKIP went Conservative. As there is a lot more historic UKIP vote to squeeze than there is Green, the benefit to the Conservatives looks to be full of Conservative potential. However, there is no sign of serious Labour vote meltdown on this level of TO, so the Labour core vote looks healthy? even if the entire Green decrease went Labour there is another 6% plus to account for. If we're winning Enfield Lock by a 35% margin I would say that's a pretty good position to be in. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 19, 2017 9:20:25 GMT
At the risk of being silly enough to read anything at all into one local election result, this would tend to suggest a squeeze on the minors with a redistribution to the two major protagonists? With Greens down two-thirds and UKIP down by more than three-quarters............the transfers are pretty even to both Labour and Conservative. The big 'BUT' is the fact that those transfers are 'Even' and not proportional to the underlying strengths of those majors! In fact the Conservatives got perhaps three times 'their share' of the redistribution? Or looked at another way, if it is assumed that most of the Green transfer went Labour, then most of UKIP went Conservative. As there is a lot more historic UKIP vote to squeeze than there is Green, the benefit to the Conservatives looks to be full of Conservative potential. However, there is no sign of serious Labour vote meltdown on this level of TO, so the Labour core vote looks healthy? . If we're winning Enfield Lock by a 35% margin I would say that's a pretty good position to be in. There isn't because see my subsequent posts. I don't necessarily disagree with your final conclusion though |
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Post by marksenior on May 19, 2017 9:42:04 GMT
Stockton result
Lab 483
Con 201
No Desc 193
LDem 43
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Post by middleenglander on May 19, 2017 10:20:40 GMT
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 254
| 44.0%
| +5.3%
| +4.4%
| -13.9%
| -13.6%
| Conservative | 189
| 32.8%
| +2.3%
| +4.4%
| -9.3%
| -9.7%
| UKIP | 68
| 11.8%
| -19.0%
| -20.2%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat | 66
| 11.4%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Total | 577
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| 30%
| 31%
| 60%
| 61%
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Swing Conservative to Labour 1½% / 0% since 2015 but Labour to Conservative 2¼% / 2% since 2011 Council now 48 Conservative, 7 Labour, 6 assorted Independent, 1 Vacant South Derbyshire, Woodville - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 613
| 46.3%
| +13.4%
| +11.9%
| +0.2%
| +0.5%
| Labour | 510
| 38.5%
| +5.9%
| +5.4%
| -15.3%
| -15.6%
| UKIP | 118
| 8.9%
| -17.8%
| -14.8%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat | 82
| 6.2%
| -1.5%
| -2.5%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Total | 1,323
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| 30%
| 34%
| 62%
| 67%
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Swing Labour to Conservative 3¾% / 3¼% since 2015 and 7¾% / 8% since 2011
Council now 24 Conservative, 12 Labour
Enfield, Enfield Lock - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | Labour | 2,155 | 63.8% | +12.7% | +13.3% | +23.1% | +24.4% | Conservative | 973 | 28.8% | +13.3% | +14.3% | +3.1% | +3.2% | Green | 104 | 3.1% | -6.4% | -6.8% | -4.6% | -4.9% | UKIP | 91 | 2.7% | -15.0% | -15.8% | -4.5% | -4.8% | Liberal Democrat | 54 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -10.8% | -11.3% | BNP |
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| -6.3% | -6.6% | -6.3% | -6.7% | Total votes | 3,377 |
| 72% | 75% | 45% | 47% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ¼% / ½% since 2014 but Conservative to Labour ~ 10% / 10½% since 2010 Council now 39 Labour, 22 Conservative, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant
Richmondshire, Reeth & Arkengarthdale - Conservative gain from Independent unopposed| Party | 2017 result | 2015 result | 2014 B result | 2011 result | 2007 result | | Conservative | unopposed | | 83 | 70 |
| Independent Beal |
| 544 | 273 |
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| Independent Gale |
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| 514 | unopposed | Green |
| 116 |
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| Labour |
| 56 |
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| Total votes |
| 716 | 356 | 584 |
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Council now 23 Conservatives, 5 Richmondshire Independents, 5 other Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Stockton-On-Tees, Newtown - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 483 | 52.5% | -3.6% | -2.4% | -0.8% | -1.3% | Conservative | 201 | 21.8% | +4.6% | +6.3% | +10.3% | +10.8% | No Description | 193 | 21.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 43 | 4.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.0% | -1.2% | UKIP |
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| -23.5% | -26.0% |
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| Libertarian |
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| -3.2% | -3.6% |
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| Newtown Independent |
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| -29.5% | -29.3% | Total votes | 920 |
| 33% | 36% | 67% | 70% |
Swing. if meaningful, ~ 4% Labour to Conservative since 2015 Council now 30 Labour, 12 Conservatives, 12 various Independents / Residents, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Vacant
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Post by middleenglander on May 19, 2017 12:00:43 GMT
Needless to say, the result in Enfield Lock, with virtually zero Lab-Con swing since 2014, should be very encouraging for Joan Ryan in Enfield North. Developing Pete Whitehead's theme posted above, we have: | 2014 "top" vote basis | 2014 "average basis | | 2014 valid ballot papers | 3,902 | 3,902 | 2014 Labour vote | 2,395 | 2,262 | 2014 Labour share of voters | 61.4% | 58.0% | 2014 Conservative vote | 725 | 648 | 2014 Conservative share of voters | 18.6% | 16.6% | 2017 Labour share | 63.8% + 2.4% | 63.8% +5.8% | 2017 Conservative share | 28.8% + 10.2% | 28.8% + 12.2% | Swing Labour to Conservative since 2014 | ~ 3.9% | ~ 3.2% |
Possibly the most realistic calculation given UKIP, Green and BNP all had only 1 candidate in 2014 for a 3 member ward. |
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Post by froome on May 19, 2017 21:42:20 GMT
I am struggling to find some comfort in this and other recent results from a Lib Dem perspective.Not so long ago there seemed to be a generic Lib Dem vote of about 5-10% i.e. that was the Lib Dem vote for paper candidates where no effort was put in. Now that seems to be less than 2% That may mean that the national headline poll figure hides a greater concentration of Lib Dem votes where it really matters, in target seats. Am I clutching at straws?No, I think you are making an obvious point. Lib Dem (and other smaller party) votes are being squeezed in the general election period, but are much more likely to hold up in seats where it matters than in those with no activitiy. |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 25, 2017 21:17:03 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on May 25, 2017 22:05:07 GMT
Turnout in Shoeburyness is 27.3% compared to 29.5% in May 2016. Circa 2,350 votes.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 25, 2017 22:52:44 GMT
SOUTHEND-ON-SEA Shoeburyness
Anne CHALK (Independent) 886
Val JARVIS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 830
Maggie KELLY (Labour) 381
Edward McNALLY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 121
Gavin SPENCER (Liberal Democrat) 119
Paul HILL (Green Party) 48
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Post by middleenglander on May 25, 2017 22:55:58 GMT
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 254
| 44.0%
| +5.3%
| +4.4%
| -13.9%
| -13.6%
| Conservative | 189
| 32.8%
| +2.3%
| +4.4%
| -9.3%
| -9.7%
| UKIP | 68
| 11.8%
| -19.0%
| -20.2%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat | 66
| 11.4%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Total | 577
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| 30%
| 31%
| 60%
| 61%
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Swing Conservative to Labour 1½% / 0% since 2015 but Labour to Conservative 2¼% / 2% since 2011 Council now 48 Conservative, 7 Labour, 6 assorted Independent, 1 Vacant South Derbyshire, Woodville - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 613
| 46.3%
| +13.4%
| +11.9%
| +0.2%
| +0.5%
| Labour | 510
| 38.5%
| +5.9%
| +5.4%
| -15.3%
| -15.6%
| UKIP | 118
| 8.9%
| -17.8%
| -14.8%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat | 82
| 6.2%
| -1.5%
| -2.5%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Total | 1,323
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| 30%
| 34%
| 62%
| 67%
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Swing Labour to Conservative 3¾% / 3¼% since 2015 and 7¾% / 8% since 2011
Council now 24 Conservative, 12 Labour
Enfield, Enfield Lock - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | Labour | 2,155 | 63.8% | +12.7% | +13.3% | +23.1% | +24.4% | Conservative | 973 | 28.8% | +13.3% | +14.3% | +3.1% | +3.2% | Green | 104 | 3.1% | -6.4% | -6.8% | -4.6% | -4.9% | UKIP | 91 | 2.7% | -15.0% | -15.8% | -4.5% | -4.8% | Liberal Democrat | 54 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -10.8% | -11.3% | BNP |
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| -6.3% | -6.6% | -6.3% | -6.7% | Total votes | 3,377 |
| 72% | 75% | 45% | 47% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ¼% / ½% since 2014 but Conservative to Labour ~ 10% / 10½% since 2010 Council now 39 Labour, 22 Conservative, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant
Richmondshire, Reeth & Arkengarthdale - Conservative gain from Independent unopposed| Party | 2017 result | 2015 result | 2014 B result | 2011 result | 2007 result | | Conservative | unopposed | | 83 | 70 |
| Independent Beal |
| 544 | 273 |
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| Independent Gale |
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| 514 | unopposed | Green |
| 116 |
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| Labour |
| 56 |
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| Total votes |
| 716 | 356 | 584 |
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Council now 23 Conservatives, 5 Richmondshire Independents, 5 other Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Stockton-On-Tees, Newtown - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 483 | 52.5% | -3.6% | -2.4% | -0.8% | -1.3% | Conservative | 201 | 21.8% | +4.6% | +6.3% | +10.3% | +10.8% | No Description | 193 | 21.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 43 | 4.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.0% | -1.2% | UKIP |
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| -23.5% | -26.0% |
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| Libertarian |
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| -3.2% | -3.6% |
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| Newtown Independent |
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| -29.5% | -29.3% | Total votes | 920 |
| 33% | 36% | 67% | 70% |
Swing. if meaningful, ~ 4% Labour to Conservative since 2015 Council now 30 Labour, 12 Conservatives, 12 various Independents / Residents, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Vacant Southend-on-Sea, Shoeburyness - Independent hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Independent Chalk | 886 | 37.1% | +16.2% | +2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 830 | 34.8% | +10.7% | -4.0% | +0.3% | +6.1% | Labour | 381 | 16.0% | +6.6% | -2.1% | +0.6% | +3.2% | UKIP | 121 | 5.1% | -7.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 119 | 5.0% | +3.0% | +2.3% | +2.1% | from nowhere | Green | 48 | 2.0% | -0.3% | -3.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Other Independents |
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| -29.0% |
| -47.2% | -57.1% | English Democrat |
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| -6.8% | Total votes | 2,385 |
| 95% | 46% | 91% | 112% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 27 Conservative, 11 Independent, 10 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Non-Aligned
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Post by greenhert on May 25, 2017 23:15:09 GMT
SOUTHEND-ON-SEA Shoeburyness Anne CHALK (Independent) 886 Val JARVIS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 830 Maggie KELLY (Labour) 381 Edward McNALLY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 121 Gavin SPENCER (Liberal Democrat) 119 Paul HILL (Green Party) 48 In percentage terms this gives:
Independent 37.1%
Conservative 34.8% Labour 16.0% UKIP 5.1%
Liberal Democrats 5.0% Green 2.0%
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Post by middleenglander on May 25, 2017 23:17:24 GMT
There were 6 by-elections in the final 3 weeks of May with 1 (17%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by: | Party | Contested | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | | Conservative | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 100% | Labour | 5 | 3 | 3 |
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| 3 | 100% | Liberal Democrat | 5 |
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| Green | 2 |
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| UKIP | 4 |
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| Independent | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 1 | 50% | No Description | 1 |
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| Total | 24 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 83% |
Conservative gained Richmondshire, Reeth & Arkengarthdale from Independent in an unopposed election - single member ward previously returned Independents, unopposed in 2003 & 2007 and with 75% + share of the vote in 2011, 2014 by-election as well as 2015 |
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